Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said today it targeted a US air base in Kuwait in retaliation for US strikes on a military site near Bandar Abbas. The US separately shot down four Iranian one-way attack drones. President Donald Trump told reporters: “They thought they were going to outwait me. You know, ‘We’ll outwait him. He’s got the midterms.’ I don’t care about the midterms.” The framework-deal optimism of recent days has collapsed; the IRGC has threatened “a more decisive response” to any further US attacks.
- The FTSE 100 traded down 1% at 10,395.98 by midday and held the losses through the afternoon. Brent crude rose 2.2% to $96.40 a barrel as the war-risk premium returned to the market. Sterling traded at $1.3410 against the dollar; the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.50%. US Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure — landed this afternoon: Core PCE expected to rise to 3.3% from 3.2%; headline PCE to 3.8% from 3.5%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Defence firms BAE Systems, Babcock and Melrose were among the FTSE’s top performers.
- Ukraine’s air defences shot down 138 of 147 Russian drones overnight, the Ukrainian Air Force said. President Volodymyr Zelensky appealed to President Trump and the US Congress for more air defence systems, urging Washington to “eliminate Putin’s last advantage”. Russian attacks killed two and injured 23 across Ukraine over the past day, with a Kherson family devastated in one of the strikes. The parallel Iran-war redirect of US Patriot interceptors continues to constrain Ukrainian air defence inventory.
GEO Geopolitical
IRGC Targets US Air Base in Kuwait; US Shoots Down Four Iranian Drones
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said today it targeted a US air base in Kuwait in retaliation for US strikes on a military site in the port city of Bandar Abbas. The US separately shot down four Iranian one-way attack drones. Kuwait’s army said its air defences were intercepting hostile missile and drone threats. The IRGC said any further US attacks would trigger “a more decisive response”. The exchange of fire marks the first kinetic Iranian retaliation since the April 7 ceasefire and signals the framework-deal track of the past week has materially broken down.
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Trump — “I Don’t Care About the Midterms”; Won’t Be Rushed Into Iran Deal
President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House Cabinet meeting on Wednesday that he wouldn’t be rushed into a peace deal with Iran. “They thought they were going to outwait me,” Trump said, referring to Iran’s leadership. “You know, ‘We’ll outwait him. He’s got the midterms.’ I don’t care about the midterms.” Trump accused Iran of trying to stall on a deal until the November mid-term elections. He separately dismissed an Iranian state TV report of an Iran-Oman Hormuz management framework as “a complete fabrication”, and threatened to “blow up” Oman if it sided with Iran. The White House said the strikes do not signal a return to full hostilities.
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Ukraine Shoots Down 138 of 147 Russian Drones; Zelensky Appeals to Trump for Air Defences
Ukraine’s air defences shot down 138 of 147 Russian drones launched overnight, the Ukrainian Air Force said. President Volodymyr Zelensky made a two-fold appeal to President Donald Trump and the US Congress for more air defence systems, urging Washington to “eliminate Putin’s last advantage”. Russian attacks killed two and injured 23 across Ukraine over the past day. A Kherson strike devastated a family. The pattern of saturation drone attacks — mostly Shahed and decoy types — continues at near-nightly frequency as Ukraine’s interceptor stocks for Patriot, NASAMS and IRIS-T systems remain constrained by parallel US deployment to Gulf-state air defence.
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Israel Agrees to Talks With Lebanon but Keeps Striking Hezbollah
Israel has agreed to talks with Lebanon but has continued striking Hezbollah positions in the country’s south. Iran has insisted Lebanon is covered by the US-Iran ceasefire framework; the United States and Israel have said it is not, threatening the truce architecture. Hezbollah said this week it carried out 37 attacks on Israeli forces in southern Lebanon. Israel separately claims to have killed 550 Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon since the start of the year. The Lebanon coverage dispute remains one of the central binding issues in the Iran-US ceasefire architecture.
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US PCE Inflation Data — Core 3.3%, Headline 3.8%; Fed Target 2%
US Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure — was released this afternoon. Core PCE rose to 3.3% from 3.2% the previous month; headline PCE rose to 3.8% from 3.5% in March, well above the Fed’s 2% target. The rise follows the CPI surge to 3.8% for April. Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB: “Today’s data could derail the stock market rally, particularly in the US and parts of Asia like South Korea, as it reminds the market that the war in the Middle East is causing real economic damage through higher interest rates. We could see yields pop higher later today, after a strong rally in global sovereign bonds over the last month.”
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UK UK Domestic Politics
FTSE 100 Down 1% on Iran Strikes; Defence Stocks Lead, BT Slumps on Mittal Report
The FTSE 100 traded down 1% at 10,395.98 by midday on Thursday and held the losses through the afternoon as the Iran-US strike exchange ended the framework-deal optimism. Brent crude rose 2.2% to $96.40 a barrel. Defence firms BAE Systems, Babcock and Melrose were among the top performers as the geopolitical risk premium returned. BT Group slumped following a report the UK government would oppose any attempt from Indian billionaire Sunil Bharti Mittal to increase his stake. Johnson Matthey fell on its acquisition of Cormetech for $360 million. Sterling traded at $1.3410.
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Blair — “Labour Must Put Policy First, Politics Second”; Step Back and “Analyse the World”
Former Prime Minister Tony Blair urged Labour yesterday to take a step back and “analyse the world” amid speculation over Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership. Blair’s intervention urged the party to put policy first and politics second. He separately warned against a “lurch to the left”, supporting cutting spending and warning against tax rises. The Blair intervention sits alongside Andy Burnham’s softer fiscal-rules tone to deliver the political-risk-premium reduction in UK gilt yields earlier this week — though today’s Iran escalation has put some of that gilt-yield rally back at risk.
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Burnham Campaign 21 Days From Polling; Green Chris Kennedy Joins Five-Way Race
Andy Burnham’s Makerfield by-election campaign has 21 days to polling day on 18 June. The Green Party announced Chris Kennedy, a nurse, as its candidate yesterday. Kennedy said “we can’t let this election be dominated by a Westminster psychodrama”. Burnham faces Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, Conservative Michael Winstanley, Liberal Democrat Jake Austin and Green Chris Kennedy. The five-way race could split the protest-vote bloc, complicating Reform UK’s “David versus Goliath” framing. Recent polling has shown Burnham would comfortably win among Labour members in a leadership contest.
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UK Energy Price Cap +13% From July; Iran Shock Re-Anchors Inflation Backdrop
The UK energy price cap will rise 13% from July to its highest level in more than two years — an increase of £221 per year per household. Ofgem warned elevated energy prices are likely to persist through winter. The cap rise is the direct passthrough of three months of Iran-war elevated oil and gas prices into UK household bills, with a lag. Today’s Iran escalation tightens the macro backdrop further: any near-term Brent move back to $100+ would compound the next quarterly cap reset rather than ease it.
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Streeting Coronation Talk Persists; Ten-Week Timetable in Play Behind Closed Doors
Senior allies of Wes Streeting say he is likely to abandon his Labour leadership bid and fall in behind Andy Burnham if the Greater Manchester mayor wins Makerfield. One Streeting ally: “The consensus among the team is that if Andy wins Makerfield, it turns to bargaining for the best possible secretary of state position. If he loses, that’s a different matter.” Those closest to Streeting are pushing a “ten-week timetable” — a four-week by-election campaign followed by a six-week Labour leadership contest. A YouGov poll of Labour members shows Burnham beating Streeting 80% to 10% in a leadership race that does not involve Starmer.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said overnight it struck a US airbase in retaliation for US military strikes on an Iranian drone operation near the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC said any further US attacks would trigger “a more decisive response”. Kuwait’s army said its air defences intercepted hostile missile and drone threats overnight. President Donald Trump on Wednesday rejected an Iranian state TV report of a Hormuz framework deal as “a complete fabrication”, threatened to “blow up” Oman if it sided with Iran, and said his administration was “not satisfied” with the negotiating terms. The escalation collapses the framework-deal optimism of recent days.
- Brent crude jumped 3.7% to $97.79 a barrel overnight; FTSE futures pointed 1% lower into the London open at 10,400; the dollar strengthened as investors moved to safe havens; the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to near 4.5%. European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane warned the global nature of the energy shock may amplify and prolong inflation impact across Europe, reinforcing central-bank caution on rate cuts. Gold rose 0.9% to $4,480 an ounce.
- The US Treasury Department added the Persian Gulf Strait Authority — the body Iran set up to manage requests for passage through the Strait of Hormuz — to the Specially Designated Nationals sanctions list yesterday. The PGSA was the operational vehicle for Iran’s “protection-fee” transit regime; sanctioning it formally puts the United States on a path of denying any international legitimacy to Iran’s claimed control of the strait. The 18 June Makerfield by-election is 21 days away with the Iran-war oil shock now firmly back in the centre of UK macro and political-economy debate.
GEO Geopolitical
IRGC Strikes US Airbase in Retaliation; Kuwait Air Defences Intercept Threats
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said overnight it targeted a US airbase after US military strikes on what a Washington official described as an Iranian drone operation that “posed a threat to US forces and commercial maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz”. The IRGC said “aggression will not go unanswered” and threatened “a more decisive response” to any further US attacks. Kuwait’s army said on Thursday its air defences were intercepting hostile missile and drone threats. The escalation collapses the framework-deal optimism of the past 72 hours and dampens hopes for a near-term ceasefire extension.
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Trump Rejects Hormuz Framework; “Blow Up” Oman Threat; Sanctions on Strait Authority
President Donald Trump at Wednesday’s Cabinet meeting dismissed an Iranian state TV report that Iran and Oman would manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as part of a deal, calling it “a complete fabrication”. “Nobody’s going to control the strait,” Trump said. “It’s international waters and Oman will behave just like everybody else or we’ll have to blow them up. They understand that, they’ll be fine.” The White House dismissed the framework report; Tehran did not comment. The US Treasury simultaneously added the Persian Gulf Strait Authority — the body Iran set up to manage strait transit — to its Specially Designated Nationals sanctions list.
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Russia Launches 88 Drones at Ukraine; Svitlovodsk Industrial Plant and Railways Hit
Russia launched 88 drones at Ukraine overnight along with five Iskander-M ballistic missiles and a Kh-59/69 guided air missile, the Ukrainian Air Force said. Drones were launched from Millerovo, Oryol, Kursk and Primorsko-Akhtarsk. Air defences neutralised 71 Shahed-type drones in the east, north and south of the country — 34 shot down by fire strike, 37 lost or suppressed by electronic warfare. Eight strike locations were confirmed. Earlier attacks struck railways in three regions and an industrial enterprise in Svitlovodsk, Kirovohrad region, with casualties reported.
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Hamas Confirms Odeh Death; Israeli Strikes Kill 18 Palestinians in Gaza on Eid
Hamas confirmed on Wednesday that Israeli airstrikes killed its newly-appointed military wing leader Mohammed Odeh, less than two weeks after his predecessor was killed in a similar strike. Dozens of Palestinians carried Odeh’s body through the streets of Gaza City in a funeral procession on Wednesday. Israeli warplanes carried out multiple attacks across the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, killing at least 18 Palestinians including children and women, and injuring more than two dozen others, as strikes targeted densely populated neighbourhoods and areas crowded with displaced families. Since the October 10 ceasefire, Israel has killed at least 906 Palestinians and injured more than 2,747 others.
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Taiwan Prosecutors Charge Three Over Nvidia AI Chip Smuggling Route to China
Taiwan prosecutors suspect three individuals successfully smuggled at least one shipment of Nvidia AI chips to China after first exporting them to Japan, in what marks the island’s first public crackdown on AI-chip diversion after years of US pressure. The trio was detained last week by Taiwan’s Keelung District Prosecutors Office for allegedly falsifying documents related to exports of Super Micro Computer servers containing advanced Nvidia chips, which the United States has barred from sale to China without a Washington licence. The probe may be the first known prosecution of an AI-chip smuggling route through Japan.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
FTSE Futures Down 1% on Iran Escalation; Brent +3.7% to $97.79
The FTSE 100 is set to open down 1% at around 10,400 on Thursday after the US-Iran exchange of fire overnight collapsed framework-deal hopes. Brent crude jumped 3.7% to $97.79 a barrel, recovering Wednesday’s losses and reigniting the geopolitical risk premium. The dollar strengthened as investors sought safe havens; sterling traded at $1.3415, down from Wednesday’s $1.3429. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.50%, reviving fears of persistent inflation. European futures pointed broadly 1% lower; German DAX futures -0.9%; pan-European futures -1.1%. Asia stocks tumbled overnight.
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Burnham Makerfield Campaign — 21 Days to Polling; Green Party Names Chris Kennedy
Andy Burnham’s Makerfield by-election campaign has 21 days to polling day on 18 June. The Green Party announced Chris Kennedy, a nurse, as its candidate yesterday. Kennedy said “we can’t let this election be dominated by a Westminster psychodrama” and vowed to “fight for warmer homes, lower bills, and a fairer economy”. Burnham faces Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon — the local plumber who came within 5,399 votes of Josh Simons in 2024; Conservative Michael Winstanley, who last stood in the constituency in 1997; and Liberal Democrat Jake Austin, a Stockport councillor. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has framed the contest as “a David versus Goliath battle”.
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Streeting Coronation Talk Continues; Ten-Week Timetable in Play
Senior allies of Wes Streeting say he is likely to abandon his Labour leadership bid and fall in behind Andy Burnham if the Greater Manchester mayor wins Makerfield. One Streeting ally: “The consensus among the team is that if Andy wins Makerfield, it turns to bargaining for the best possible secretary of state position. If he loses, that’s a different matter.” Those closest to Streeting are pushing a “ten-week timetable” — four-week by-election campaign followed by six-week Labour leadership contest. A YouGov poll of Labour members shows Burnham beating Streeting 80% to 10% in a leadership race that does not involve Starmer.
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Reeves Rearguard Holds — Blair Warning, Bond-Market Fear of Miliband
Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s backbench-lobbying push continues. Friends of Reeves believe there is a world in which she survives the transition to a Burnham premiership precisely because it would reassure the markets. Former Prime Minister Tony Blair warned the Labour Party this week against a “lurch to the left”, stating a move to the left would not work electorally and supporting cutting spending. The intervention translated — via market reception — into easing UK gilt yields. One Labour MP close to the chancellor: “The biggest fear for the bond markets and the unions is Ed Miliband.”
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UK Energy Price Cap +13% From July — £221 Increase Per Household
The UK energy price cap will rise 13% from July to its highest level in more than two years, Ofgem confirmed on Wednesday — an increase of £221 per year per household. The regulator warned elevated energy prices are likely to persist through winter. The cap rise is the direct passthrough of three months of Iran-war elevated oil and gas prices into UK household bills, with a lag. The announcement lands awkwardly against the Iran-driven oil-price moves and the Reeves cost-of-living package — the policy backdrop is now a tug-of-war between substantively easier energy macro (oil-price relief, when it holds) and structurally higher household-cap pricing (regulator passthrough).
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- President Donald Trump chaired a full Cabinet meeting at the White House this afternoon — relocated from Camp David due to bad weather — and said his administration is “not satisfied” with the terms Iran has offered to end the war. “They just want to make a deal. I don’t think they have a choice. Their economy is in free fall,” Trump said. “Their money has no value, their whole economic system has broken down.” Brent crude fell 3.6% to $96.61 a barrel; the FTSE 100 closed up 0.13% at 10,505 as oil-deal optimism offset BP (-2.7%) and Shell (-2.3%) declines.
- Ukrainian forces launched a major overnight strike package on three Russian military aviation targets: the Voronezh Baltimor airbase, the Taganrog 325 Aircraft Repair Plant in Rostov Oblast, and the Black Sea Fleet Air Force headquarters in occupied Sevastopol — using British-French Storm Shadow cruise missiles in at least some of the attacks. A seven-hour air raid alert sounded across occupied Sevastopol. At 05:50 a missile hit the Black Sea Fleet Air Force HQ on Hohol Street, which was “badly burned” with no intact windows. Ukrainian middle-range drones have forced Russia to close the M-14 highway, its main route from Rostov-on-Don to occupied Crimea, to civilian traffic.
- UK energy price cap will rise 13% from July to a two-year high — an increase of £221 per year per household. Ofgem warned elevated energy prices are likely to persist through winter. The price-cap announcement sits awkwardly against the Iran-driven oil price fall and the gilt-yield rally: the UK 10-year yield is down 4 basis points today and 34 basis points off the 13 May 5.17% peak, helped by softer fiscal-rule tone from Andy Burnham and a Tony Blair intervention warning Labour against a “lurch to the left”. Sterling traded at $1.3429.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Cabinet Meeting — Administration “Not Satisfied” With Iran Terms
President Donald Trump chaired a full Cabinet meeting at the White House this afternoon — relocated from Camp David due to bad weather forecast — and said his administration is “not satisfied” with the terms Iran has offered to end the war. “They just want to make a deal. I don’t think they have a choice. Their economy is in free fall,” Trump told meeting attendees. “Their money has no value, their whole economic system has broken down.” The session was open to reporters, making it one of the administration’s most closely watched meetings in recent weeks. Additional policy meetings are scheduled later in the day behind closed doors. All Cabinet members attended including outgoing Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.
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IRGC Says Return to War “Unlikely”; Iran Internet Restored After 88 Days
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said today that a return to war with the United States is unlikely, signalling Tehran is positioning for the framework deal’s adoption. Iran’s internet connectivity was simultaneously restored to a large extent on Wednesday after 88 days of near-total isolation from international networks, internet monitor NetBlocks said — a development markets read as a tentative confidence-building measure. Iran continues to demand the release of $24 billion in frozen assets, with $12 billion released in the first phase of any deal and another $12 billion transferred within 60 days of signing.
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Ukraine Hits Three Russian Aviation Targets Overnight — Storm Shadow Missiles Used
Ukrainian forces launched a major overnight strike package on three Russian military aviation targets: the Voronezh Baltimor airbase, the Taganrog 325 Aircraft Repair Plant in Rostov Oblast, and the Black Sea Fleet Air Force headquarters in occupied Sevastopol. British-French Storm Shadow cruise missiles were likely used in at least some of the attacks. A seven-hour air raid alert sounded across occupied Sevastopol overnight; at 05:50 local time a missile hit the Black Sea Fleet Air Force HQ on Hohol Street, which was “badly burned” with no intact windows. The Taganrog aircraft repair plant lies about 170 km from the front line; Voronezh Baltimor about 200 km.
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Russia Closes M-14 Highway to Crimea as Ukrainian Drones Hit Supply Trucks Daily
Russia has closed the M-14 highway, its main route from Rostov-on-Don to occupied Crimea, to civilian traffic. Ukrainian drones are hitting Russian supply trucks along the route at a near-daily clip. On 22 May, Vladimir Saldo, Russia’s installed governor of occupied Kherson Oblast, signed a decree suspending traffic on the section of the M-14 highway running through occupied Kherson to the Dzhankoi checkpoint in northern Crimea. Ukrainian middle-range drone strikes — those traveling as far as 200 km — more than doubled between February and March. Drones drove some 96% of Russia’s March casualties. Russia continued losing ground through April.
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Israel-Hamas Odeh Strike Follow-up; Gaza Civilian Toll Rises Under Ceasefire
Hebrew media outlets cited initial assessments indicating last night’s strike on new Hamas military chief Mohammed Odeh in Rimal in western Gaza City was successful. Three people were killed and 20 wounded. There has been no immediate Hamas confirmation. Despite the ceasefire that has been in place in Gaza since October, Israel has kept up its campaign against the perpetrators of the October 7, 2023 attacks; reporting last week indicated Israel has created a list of all Palestinians who took part in the attack and is working to kill or arrest each one. Some 900 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli strikes since the October truce, according to Gaza health officials.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
FTSE 100 Closes +0.13% at 10,505 as Iran Optimism Eases Oil; BP -2.7%, IAG +3.1%
The FTSE 100 closed up 13.62 points, 0.13%, at 10,505.01 on Wednesday. The FTSE 250 ended up 0.3% at 23,384.98; the AIM All-Share rose 0.1%. Oil prices eased markedly as investors eyed signs that the US and Iran were closing in on a deal that would open the Strait of Hormuz. The oil price fall hit BP (-2.7%) and Shell (-2.3%). On the plus side: International Consolidated Airlines (IAG, British Airways owner) gained 3.1%; JD Sports Fashion rose 5.1%; Marks & Spencer climbed 4.3%; housebuilder Barratt Redrow gained 2.3% as bond yields cooled. Brent crude fell 3.6% to $96.61 a barrel; Sterling traded at $1.3429.
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UK Energy Price Cap Rises 13% to Two-Year High — £221 Increase Per Household
The UK energy price cap is set to rise 13% from July to its highest level in more than two years, Ofgem said today — an increase of £221 per year per household. The regulator warned elevated energy prices are likely to persist through winter. The cap rise is the direct passthrough of three months of Iran-war elevated oil and gas prices into UK household bills, with a lag. The announcement lands awkwardly against the Reeves cost-of-living package and the Iran-driven oil price fall over the past week — suggesting the policy backdrop is now a tug-of-war between substantively easier energy macro (oil price relief) and structurally higher household-cap pricing (regulator passthrough).
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Tony Blair Warns Labour Against “Lurch to the Left”; Burnham Softens Fiscal-Rule Tone
Former Prime Minister Tony Blair warned the Labour Party against a “lurch to the left”, stating that a move to the left would not work electorally. Blair specifically warned against tax rises and supported cutting spending. The intervention has translated — via market reception — into easing UK gilt yields: the 10-year yield is down 4 basis points today and 34 basis points off the 13 May 5.17% peak. The political-risk premium added to UK debt has been reduced “helped by a softer tone on fiscal rules and tax rises from Labour leadership hopeful Andy Burnham”, market commentary noted, alongside the Blair intervention.
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Burnham Makerfield Campaign Continues; Streeting Coronation Framework Hardens
Andy Burnham’s Makerfield by-election campaign has 22 days to polling day on 18 June. The Greater Manchester mayor’s slogan is “Vote Andy — For Us”. He faces Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, Liberal Democrat Jake Austin and Conservative Michael Winstanley. Senior allies of Wes Streeting say he is likely to abandon his Labour leadership bid and fall in behind Burnham if the Greater Manchester mayor wins. Those closest to Streeting are pushing a “ten-week timetable” — four-week by-election campaign followed by six-week leadership contest. A YouGov poll of Labour members shows Burnham beating Streeting 80% to 10% in a leadership race that does not involve Starmer.
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PMQs — Starmer Defends Record as Leadership Question Hangs Over Chamber
Sir Keir Starmer faced Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch at Prime Minister’s Questions this afternoon — the first parliamentary set-piece since the Spring Bank Holiday and the most operationally consequential PMQs of the leadership-question news cycle to date. Last week’s PMQs saw Badenoch land repeated blows on the Prime Minister, with the Tory leader pivoting to: “He’s got a Cabinet fighting to replace him, and the worst part is they are not getting rid of him over his terrible agenda. No, they actually like it. They just want a better salesman.” This week’s session continues the same dynamic with 22 days to the Makerfield by-election.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- President Donald Trump convenes his full Cabinet at Camp David this morning — only the second time in his second term he has used the Maryland mountain retreat, and the 10th full Cabinet meeting of his presidency. The agenda: decide whether to sign or walk away from the proposed memorandum of understanding with Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said yesterday talks will take “several more days”. Republican senators Roger Wicker, Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz have publicly said the emerging terms appear too favourable to Tehran. Brent crude eased to $98.03 a barrel in early trading; the FTSE 100 opened slightly lower at 10,482.
- Russia launched 163 drones at Ukraine overnight including jet-powered Shaheds, Gerberas and Italmas decoys, the Ukrainian Air Force said. Air defences shot down or neutralised 150; eight strike UAVs hit seven locations with debris at four more. Ukraine remains acutely short of interceptor missiles for its Patriot, NASAMS and IRIS-T systems — partly because the same US-made air-defence inventory has been redirected to support the Iran campaign. President Volodymyr Zelensky has renewed his appeals to allies for more air defence systems.
- Israel killed Hamas’s newly-appointed military wing chief Mohammed Odeh in an air strike on Rimal in western Gaza City on Tuesday evening, 11 days after killing his predecessor Ezz al-Din al-Haddad. Three were killed and 20 wounded. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Israel Katz called Odeh “one of the architects of the October 7 massacre”. Taiwan is monitoring the second Chinese “joint combat readiness patrol” in a week as the Liaoning carrier group operates in the West Pacific, with Taipei calling Beijing “the sole source of instability” in the Indo-Pacific.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Convenes Full Cabinet at Camp David to Decide on Iran Deal
President Donald Trump will meet his entire Cabinet at Camp David on Wednesday morning — only the second time in his second term he has used the Maryland mountain retreat, and the 10th full Cabinet meeting of his presidency. The agenda is dominated by the Iran negotiations. Trump is projecting confidence that he is closing in on a deal that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and provide him a credible argument that Iran’s nuclear capability has been diminished enough to declare victory. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday talks will take “several more days”. “He’s either going to make a good deal or no deal,” Rubio said.
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Iran Demands $24 Billion in Frozen Assets Released in Two Phases
Iran demanded the release of $12 billion in frozen assets in a potential deal with the United States and insisted that another $12 billion “should be transferred within 60 days” of signing the agreement, according to a source close to the negotiating team. Iran’s top negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf visited Qatar on Monday for talks aimed at “securing access to $12 billion in the first phase, as well as removing obstacles”. Iranian central bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati joined the Doha delegation specifically to handle the frozen-funds dimension of the wider memorandum. Iran’s internet was simultaneously restored to a large extent on Wednesday after 88 days of near-total isolation from international networks.
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Russia Launches 163 Drones Overnight at Ukraine; Air Defence Missile Shortage Bites
Russia launched 163 attack drones at Ukraine overnight starting at 6pm Kyiv time on Tuesday, including jet-powered Shaheds, Gerberas, Italmas drones and Parodiya-type decoys, the Ukrainian Air Force said. Ukrainian air defence forces shot down or neutralised 150 drones in the north, south and east of the country. Eight strike UAVs hit seven locations; debris from downed drones fell at four further locations. The drones were launched from the directions of Kursk, Bryansk, Orel, Millerovo and Shatalovo. Ukraine remains acutely short of interceptor missiles for its US-made Patriot, NASAMS and IRIS-T air defence systems.
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Israel Kills Hamas Military Chief Mohammed Odeh in Gaza City Strike
Israel carried out a strike in the Gaza Strip on Tuesday evening targeting new Hamas military chief Mohammed Odeh, 11 days after killing his predecessor Ezz al-Din al-Haddad. Three people were killed and 20 wounded in the strike in the Rimal neighbourhood of western Gaza City. A joint statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Israel Katz called Odeh “one of the architects of the October 7 massacre”, saying he was head of Hamas intelligence during the October 7, 2023 attacks. Odeh was appointed last week to succeed al-Haddad as Hamas’s leader in the Gaza Strip and chief of its military wing. Initial Israeli assessments indicated the strike was successful.
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Taiwan Monitors Second Chinese Combat Patrol in a Week as Liaoning Carrier Operates
Taiwan said it is monitoring the second Chinese “joint combat readiness patrol” near the island in a week, accusing Beijing of being “the sole source of instability” in the Asia Pacific. Taiwan’s National Defence Ministry said on Tuesday it had detected 29 Chinese aircraft including fighter jets and seven warships operating around the island; 24 of the aerial sorties crossed the median line. Joseph Wu, secretary-general of Taiwan’s National Security Council, posted: “For the 2nd time in a week, shortly after the Beijing summit, the PLA conducted a ‘joint combat readiness patrol’ around Taiwan. We also spotted the Liaoning carrier group in the West Pacific. This is unprovoked. The PRC is the sole source of instability in the IndoPacific.”
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UK UK Domestic Politics
FTSE 100 Edges Down as Iran Uncertainty Persists; PMQs This Afternoon
The FTSE 100 opened slightly lower on Wednesday at 10,482, down 9 points from Tuesday’s five-week-high close of 10,491.39. Brent crude eased to $98.03 a barrel from $100.18 yesterday, giving back some of Tuesday’s 4% surge as traders weighed conflicting signals on the US-Iran framework. Sterling steadied at $1.3447. Iran accused the United States of breaching the ceasefire and warned it was ready to retaliate after overnight US strikes on Monday targeting Iranian missile sites and mine-laying boats. Today’s PMQs at midday is the first parliamentary session since the Spring Bank Holiday and falls 22 days before the Makerfield by-election.
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Burnham Makerfield Campaign — 22 Days to Polling Day, “Vote Andy For Us”
Andy Burnham’s Makerfield by-election campaign has 22 days to polling day on 18 June. The Greater Manchester mayor’s slogan is “Vote Andy — For Us”; he secured the music rights from Oasis for his first campaign video. Burnham faces Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon — the local plumber and army reservist who came within 5,399 votes of Josh Simons in 2024; Liberal Democrat Jake Austin, a Stockport councillor; and Conservative Michael Winstanley, who last stood in Makerfield in 1997. Sir Keir Starmer has said he will be “100% behind” Burnham and would campaign personally for him — the political theatre of a Prime Minister campaigning for a leadership-rival-in-waiting now defines the next three weeks.
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Streeting “Coronation” Talk Hardens — Ten-Week Timetable, Bargaining Begins
Senior allies of Wes Streeting say he is likely to abandon his Labour leadership bid and fall in behind Andy Burnham if the Greater Manchester mayor wins Makerfield. One Streeting ally: “The consensus among the team is that if Andy wins Makerfield, it turns to bargaining for the best possible secretary of state position. If he loses, that’s a different matter.” Those closest to Streeting are pushing a “ten-week timetable” — a four-week by-election campaign followed by a six-week Labour leadership contest. Allies of Defence Minister Al Carns — the Selly Oak armed forces minister with the long military CV — have separately said they expect him to stand as a third leadership candidate if a contest is triggered.
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Reeves Rearguard — Cost-of-Living Package + “Biggest Fear Is Miliband” Framing
Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s backbench-lobbying push continues this week. Friends of Reeves believe there is a world in which she survives the transition to a Burnham premiership precisely because it would reassure the markets. One Labour MP close to the chancellor: “The biggest fear for the bond markets and the unions is Ed Miliband.” Burnham’s allies have suggested Energy Secretary Ed Miliband as his pick for chancellor; Reeves’s allies counter that Miliband “would not be trusted by the bond markets”. The Reeves cost-of-living package — cancellation of the 5p fuel-duty rise, free bus travel for children over the summer holiday, VAT cuts, food tariff removals and £120m ceramics support — lands into a measurably easier macro backdrop than the brief was drafted for.
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Carns at RFA Lyme Bay — UK-France Mine-Clearing Operation Stands Ready in Gibraltar
Armed Forces Minister Al Carns took a small group of reporters to visit the RFA Lyme Bay at Gibraltar on Monday as the amphibious landing vessel prepares for a possible international operation, led by the United Kingdom and France, to secure the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel was being loaded with ammunition and mine-hunting sea drones equipped with sonar. Hundreds of British sailors are waiting to be deployed for a mine-clearing mission — only once a peace agreement is reached. Cmdr Gemma Britton, in charge of the Royal Navy’s Mine and Threat Exploitation Group, said Iran could have a “huge” variety of mines throughout the strait. The priority would be to clear a transit lane for around 700 ships to leave.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- President Donald Trump and his entire Cabinet will meet at Camp David tomorrow to decide on the next phase of the Iran negotiations, a White House official said today. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said today that a deal with Iran remains within reach despite the overnight strikes by US Central Command on IRGC mine-laying boats and a surface-to-air missile site at Bandar Abbas. Rubio remained firm that the Strait of Hormuz must be opened. Iranian negotiators continued talks in Doha with Qatari mediators on frozen funds and the wider memorandum-of-understanding architecture.
- Oil prices rebounded sharply after the strikes, with Brent crude up 4% to $100.40 a barrel — clawing back about half of Monday’s near-10% plunge that had taken Brent below $100 for the first time in weeks. The FTSE 100 closed up 0.24% at 10,491.39 — a five-week high — but gains were limited by a 4% drop in BP after the oil major’s board removed Chairman Albert Manifold “with immediate effect” over “serious” concerns about “important governance standards, oversight and conduct”. Sterling firmed to $1.3489 against the dollar.
- The proposed framework now under negotiation in Doha contains 14 points and would deliver an immediate end to the war and the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for Iran taking measures to ensure safe transit. Iran would clear mines from the strait within a 30-day window. During a subsequent 60-day period, Iran would be free to sell oil under US sanctions waivers, and detailed nuclear-programme talks would begin. Iranian officials continue to insist nuclear discussions only follow US delivery of its commitments — the central US-Iran sequencing dispute.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Cabinet to Meet at Camp David Wednesday; Rubio — Deal “Still Possible”
President Donald Trump and his entire Cabinet will meet at Camp David tomorrow, a White House official said today, with the Iran negotiations the central agenda item. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said today that a deal with Iran remained within reach despite the overnight US Central Command strikes on IRGC mine-laying boats and a Bandar Abbas surface-to-air missile site. Rubio repeated the US position that the Strait of Hormuz must be opened. President Trump in a separate Truth Social post said negotiations were “proceeding nicely”, but added: “It will only be a Great Deal for all, or no Deal at all.”
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Brent Rebounds 4% to $100; BP Chairman Manifold Removed Over Governance Concerns
Brent crude futures rose 4% to $100.40 a barrel as US strikes on Iran deflated hopes of an imminent deal, clawing back about half of Monday’s near-10% drop. West Texas Intermediate fell 2% to $94.19 a barrel compared with Friday’s settlement — US markets had been closed Monday for Memorial Day. The FTSE 100 closed up 0.24% at 10,491.39, a five-week high, but oil major BP fell 4% after the company removed Chairman Albert Manifold with immediate effect over “serious” concerns about “important governance standards, oversight and conduct”. Shell, by contrast, gained on the higher oil price.
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Doha Talks Continue — 14-Point MoU, 30-Day Hormuz Window, Frozen Funds in Play
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and central bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati continued talks in Doha today with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani. An official briefed on the Doha visit said the discussions focused primarily on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, with Hemmati on the delegation specifically to discuss the potential release of frozen Iranian funds as part of a final deal. The proposed memorandum of understanding contains 14 points and would deliver an immediate end to the war and the US naval blockade of the strait.
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Iran Reframes Hormuz Fees as “Protection” and “Environmental” Charges
Iran continues to claim that it and Oman control the Strait of Hormuz as territorial waters, with Iranian officials attempting to reframe transit tolls as “protection fees” and “environmental fees” to give the protection racket the veneer of legality. The Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway under international law. Iran is claiming the strait is territorial waters and under the administration of “coastal” states — notably while excluding the United Arab Emirates from the definition of coastal state, despite the UAE bordering the strait. Iran remains the only power that has threatened civilian shipping in the strait during the war, meaning the “protection fee” is a fee ships must pay to avoid Iranian attack.
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Rezaei Warning — Renewed War Would Begin at Strait, Extend Through Bab el Mandeb
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s military adviser and former IRGC Commander Major General Mohsen Rezaei said yesterday the situation is in a “complete stalemate”, warning that any renewed war would begin at the Strait of Hormuz and extend through the Bab el Mandeb and into the Indian Ocean. Rezaei also claimed Iran has kept the strait “open to free trade” while requiring vessels to be “identified and registered” — the strongest official Iranian articulation yet of the permission-based transit regime the regime is trying to normalise. IRGC-affiliated Fars News framed the Doha talks as a vehicle to secure concrete economic gains rather than broader political conciliation with the United States.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
FTSE 100 Closes at Five-Week High; BP Chairman Removed Limits Gains
The FTSE 100 closed up 0.24% at 10,491.39 on Tuesday, its highest level since 21 April, gaining 2.9% in the six trading sessions since 15 May. The FTSE 250 ended up 0.7% at 23,327.49; the AIM all-share rose 1.5%. Oil majors led early gains as Brent rebounded but BP’s 4% drop after the removal of Chairman Albert Manifold capped the index. Shell rose on the higher oil price. Sterling firmed to $1.3489 against the dollar. The two-year and ten-year gilt curve is now pricing in further Bank of England rate cuts as the imported-inflation outlook eases on lower oil prices.
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BP Removes Chairman Albert Manifold Over “Serious” Governance Concerns
BP’s board removed Chairman Albert Manifold with immediate effect today after “serious” concerns were raised about “important governance standards, oversight and conduct”, the company said in a statement. The unexpected exit drove BP shares down 4% to 529p, the second-biggest faller in the FTSE 100. The board did not disclose further detail on the nature of the concerns. The departure comes at a critical moment for the oil major: Brent volatility has been the dominant macro variable for BP’s earnings throughout the war; BP’s Q1 earnings beat last month depended on the elevated oil price; and the chairman question now intersects directly with the corporate-governance side of the supply-shock.
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Streeting “Coronation” Talk Hardens — Ten-Week Timetable, Bargaining Begins
Senior allies of Wes Streeting say he is likely to abandon his Labour leadership bid and fall in behind Andy Burnham if the Greater Manchester mayor wins the Makerfield by-election. Figures organising for the former health secretary said there is an emerging feeling that “no one can beat Andy” if Burnham makes it back to parliament. One Streeting ally: “The consensus among the team is that if Andy wins Makerfield, it turns to bargaining for the best possible secretary of state position. If he loses, that’s a different matter.” Those closest to Streeting are pushing for a “ten-week timetable” — a four-week by-election campaign followed by a six-week Labour leadership contest.
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Reeves Rearguard Holds — Bond Markets “Biggest Fear Is Miliband”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s backbench-lobbying push continues today. Friends of Reeves believe there is a world in which she survives the transition to a Burnham premiership precisely because it would reassure the markets. One Labour MP close to the chancellor said: “The biggest fear for the bond markets and the unions is Ed Miliband. I am concerned that we may lose everything if a new leader sacrifices the chancellor for promises and new alliances they are currently forging with MPs who fancy the job for themselves.” Burnham’s allies have suggested Energy Secretary Ed Miliband as his pick for chancellor; Reeves’s allies counter that Miliband “would not be trusted by the bond markets”.
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Burnham Makerfield Campaign — 23 Days to Go in “David versus Goliath” Contest
Andy Burnham’s Makerfield by-election campaign has 23 days until polling day on 18 June. The Greater Manchester mayor faces Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon — the local plumber and army reservist who came within 5,399 votes of Josh Simons in 2024; Liberal Democrat Jake Austin, a Stockport councillor; and Conservative Michael Winstanley, who last stood in the constituency in 1997. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has framed the contest as a “David versus Goliath battle”. Burnham’s campaign continues to focus on the local-constituency framing while his allies push the “ten-week” coronation timetable behind closed doors.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- US Central Command launched overnight strikes against Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps mine-laying boats in the Strait of Hormuz and a surface-to-air missile site at Bandar Abbas, threatening the fragile ceasefire even as Iranian negotiators arrived in Doha for fresh talks. CENTCOM spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins said American forces “conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces”. Targets “included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines”. Two IRGC vessels were eliminated. US officials said the strikes do not signal the collapse of the framework deal.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and the central bank chief travelled to Doha overnight for fresh talks with Qatar’s prime minister and US counterparts on frozen financial assets and the wider deal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in Jaipur the Strait of Hormuz has to be open “one way or the other”. “There were some talks going on in Qatar today, so we’ll see if we can make progress. I think it’s a lot of talking back and forth going on about specific language in the initial document, so it’ll take a few days,” Rubio told reporters. President Donald Trump on Monday: “He’s either going to make a good deal or no deal.”
- The FTSE 100 opened up 0.8% at 10,546 this morning, playing catch-up after the Spring Bank Holiday as London investors absorbed Monday’s oil-price moves. Brent crude was at $98.21 a barrel, up 0.7% on Monday’s lows but down sharply from Friday’s $104.22 close. Sterling firmed to $1.3478 against the dollar, up from Friday’s $1.3441. Oil majors led the FTSE gains — BP up 2.7%, Shell up 2.0% — with Kingfisher, Sunbelt Rentals and Endeavour Mining also on the leaderboard. Bond markets are pricing in lower Bank of England rates as the imported-inflation pressure eases.
GEO Geopolitical
CENTCOM Strikes IRGC Mine-Laying Boats and Bandar Abbas SAM Site Overnight
US Central Command spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins said American forces “conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces”. The targets “included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines”. Two Iranian boats were caught laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a senior US official said; the US military eliminated both IRGC vessels and also struck a surface-to-air missile site in Bandar Abbas that Hawkins said was targeting US warplanes. “US Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire,” Hawkins said.
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Iran Delegation in Doha for Fresh Talks — Foreign Minister, Parliament Speaker, Central Bank Chief
Iran sent a senior negotiating delegation to Doha overnight that includes Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and the central bank chief, for fresh talks with Qatar’s prime minister and US counterparts. The Doha track is focused on frozen Iranian financial assets and the wider memorandum-of-understanding architecture. The strikes overnight in southern Iran came as the delegation arrived — framing the talks against a backdrop of continued US military leverage on the Hormuz mine-laying threat.
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Rubio in Jaipur — Hormuz Must Be Open “One Way Or The Other”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Jaipur, during a visit to India, that the Strait of Hormuz must be open “one way or the other” following the overnight strikes. “There were some talks going on in Qatar today, so we’ll see if we can make progress. I think it’s a lot of talking back and forth going on about specific language in the initial document, so it’ll take a few days,” Rubio said. President Donald Trump told reporters on Monday: “The president’s expressed his desire to make it. He’s either going to make a good deal or no deal.”
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Iran “Stalling” to Normalise Hormuz Control; “Deal or Force” Binary Holds
One of Iran’s primary negotiating objectives is to secure sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — an objective more important to Tehran than fee revenue from merchant vessels. Iran is likely stalling and delaying the negotiations process deliberately, because the protraction of the current situation serves Iran’s interests by normalising its de facto control of transit through the strait. The strait will not return to normal without either a deal that ends Iranian control or a US-led military operation that forces the strait open. Recognition of Iranian claims of sovereignty is both unacceptable and fails to accomplish a return to normal. The binary the international community now faces is “deal or force”.
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Baghaei — “Large Portion” of Issues Resolved, Signing Still Not Imminent
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said on Monday that conclusions have been reached on a large portion of issues, but “to say that this means the signing of an agreement is imminent — no one can make such a claim”. Baghaei said the memorandum of understanding does not include specifics about the management of the Strait of Hormuz and that any fees Iran charges “will not be presented as tolls”. IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency said the United States is “still obstructing” parts of the potential deal, including Tehran’s demand for the release of frozen funds.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
FTSE 100 Opens Up 0.8% Post-Bank-Holiday; Oil Majors Lead, Sterling at $1.3478
The FTSE 100 opened up 79 points at 10,546 by 08:12 BST, playing catch-up after the Spring Bank Holiday closure on Monday. Oil majors led the gains: BP rose 2.7% after reporting first-quarter profit that exceeded expectations on stronger oil prices; Shell climbed 2.0%. Kingfisher, Sunbelt Rentals, Endeavour Mining and Glencore were also on the leaderboard. Melrose, Auto Trader, Vodafone and BP-laggards lagged. Brent crude was at $98.21 a barrel, up 0.7% on Monday’s lows but down sharply from Friday’s $104.22 close. Sterling firmed to $1.3478 against the dollar.
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Carns Visits RFA Lyme Bay in Gibraltar — UK-France Mine-Clearing Operation Stands Ready
Armed Forces Minister Al Carns took a small group of reporters to visit the RFA Lyme Bay at Gibraltar yesterday as it prepares for a possible international operation, led by the United Kingdom and France, to secure the Strait of Hormuz. The amphibious landing vessel was being loaded with ammunition and mine-hunting sea drones equipped with sonar. Hundreds of British sailors are waiting to be deployed for a mine-clearing mission — only once a peace agreement is reached. Cmdr Gemma Britton, in charge of the Royal Navy’s Mine and Threat Exploitation Group, said Iran could have a “huge” variety of mines throughout the strait — rocket-propelled, cabled, or sea-bed mines triggered by sound, movement or light.
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Streeting “Won’t Fight Burnham” if Makerfield Wins; Ten-Week Coronation Timetable Emerges
Wes Streeting is likely to abandon his bid for the Labour leadership and fall in behind Andy Burnham if the Greater Manchester mayor wins the Makerfield by-election, senior allies believe. Figures organising for the former health secretary said there is an emerging feeling that “no one can beat Andy” if Burnham makes it back to parliament and launches a challenge against Sir Keir Starmer. A YouGov poll of Labour members shows Burnham beating Streeting 80% to 10% in a potential leadership race that does not involve Starmer. Those closest to Streeting are pushing for a “ten-week timetable” — a four-week by-election campaign followed by a six-week Labour leadership contest.
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Reeves Rearguard Holds — “Chancellor Question Almost as Important as PM”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s backbench-lobbying push continues this week. Reeves has told friends she would like to stay in the chancellorship even under a new prime minister, and her allies are urging MPs to back her if Sir Keir Starmer is replaced later this year. One Labour MP close to the chancellor: “The biggest fear for the bond markets and the unions is Ed Miliband. I am concerned that we may lose everything if a new leader sacrifices the chancellor for promises and new alliances they are currently forging with MPs who fancy the job for themselves.” The chancellor question is now “almost as important as that for prime minister”.
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Burnham Campaign Continues Through Bank Holiday Weekend; Kenyon Test Sharpens
Andy Burnham’s Makerfield campaign continued through the Spring Bank Holiday weekend, with the Greater Manchester mayor positioning himself as the change candidate against both Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon and the cabinet-supported Starmer leadership. Kenyon, a local plumber and army reservist who came within 5,399 votes of Josh Simons in the 2024 general election, has framed the contest as “Plucky Plumber” versus “Open Borders Burnham”. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has called the by-election a “David versus Goliath battle” and has thrown senior Reform UK figures into the constituency for the four-week campaign sprint to 18 June.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Brent crude crashed below $100 a barrel for the first time since 7 May, settling at $97.53 in thin holiday trade — down 5.8% on the day — as oil markets priced in the prospect that an Iran-US deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz could be announced this week. President Donald Trump said in an early Memorial Day Truth Social post: his administration will either reach “a great and meaningful” deal with Iran “or there will be no deal”. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said yesterday an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be announced as soon as today. Gold rose 1% as the dollar softened.
- Iran continues to push back on the US framing. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said today the memorandum of understanding does not include specifics about the management of the Strait of Hormuz and that any fees Iran charges “will not be presented as tolls”. The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency said the United States “is still obstructing” parts of the potential deal, including Tehran’s demand for the release of frozen funds. Iran has acknowledged agreement on many points but says the signing of a deal is not imminent.
- UK and US markets were closed today for the Spring Bank Holiday and Memorial Day, leaving global trade thin and volatility high. The Brent move — if it holds — would translate into materially lower UK pump prices in the coming weeks: Brent at $97 is roughly 23% below the post-war peak of $126. Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s cost-of-living package this week — cancelling a planned 5p rise in fuel duty, VAT cut from 20% to 5% on summer attraction tickets, removal of import tariffs from 100 food items, and a £120 million ceramics support package — would compound the relief if the oil-price move proves durable.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump — “Great and Meaningful” Deal “Or There Will Be No Deal”
President Donald Trump said in an early Memorial Day Truth Social post that his administration will either reach “a great and meaningful” deal with Iran to end the war, “or there will be no deal”. The post hardened the tone of yesterday’s “not to rush” framing into a binary: a signed agreement on US terms or no agreement at all. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said yesterday an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be announced as soon as today — though the US administration also confirmed the signing of any deal is not imminent.
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Brent Crashes Below $100 — 5.8% Drop on Iran-Deal Optimism, Thin Holiday Trade
Brent crude futures dropped $6.01, or 5.8%, to $97.53 a barrel by 11:25 GMT, the lowest level since 7 May. West Texas Intermediate fell 5.9% to $90.95. Both contracts hit lows not seen in over two weeks as traders unwound the war-risk premium linked to the Strait of Hormuz. UK and US markets were closed for the Spring Bank Holiday and Memorial Day, leaving trade thinner and volatility higher than usual. Gold prices jumped 1% as the dollar softened. Traders are weighing how much Middle East supply shock remains priced in if talks make material progress this week.
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Baghaei — MoU Does Not Include Hormuz Specifics; Fees “Not Presented As Tolls”
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said today that the memorandum of understanding under negotiation does not include specifics about the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Baghaei added that any fees Iran charges “will not be presented as tolls”. The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency said the United States “is still obstructing” parts of the potential deal, including Tehran’s demand for the release of frozen funds. Iran has acknowledged agreement with the United States on many points but says the signing of a deal is not imminent — and that the proposal under discussion does not include immediate concessions on the nuclear issue.
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Three-Stage Architecture Holds — Hormuz First, Sanctions Later, 60-Day Nuclear Window
The proposed three-stage framework remains the operational template: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement — which can be extended to 60 days for nuclear-programme talks. Under the emerging agreement, the Strait of Hormuz would gradually reopen in parallel with the US ending its blockade of Iranian ports. The US would allow Iran to sell oil through sanctions waivers, with sanctions relief and the release of Iran’s frozen funds negotiated during the 60-day period. Sanctions relief is contingent on the strait being fully functional, not just declared open.
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Iran “Stalling” Deliberately to Normalise Hormuz Control; “Deal or Force” Remains the Binary
One of Iran’s primary negotiating objectives is to secure sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — an objective more important to Tehran than the fee revenue from merchant vessels. Iran is likely stalling and delaying the negotiations process deliberately, because the protraction of the current situation serves Iran’s interests by normalising its de facto control of transit through the strait. The strait will not return to normal without either a deal that ends Iranian control or a US-led military operation that forces the strait open. Recognition of Iranian claims of sovereignty is both unacceptable and fails to accomplish a return to normal. The binary the international community now faces is “deal or force”.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
UK Pump-Price Relief in Prospect as Brent Falls Below $100 on Bank Holiday
If Brent crude’s 5.8% Monday drop below $100 holds, UK pump prices are likely to fall materially in the coming weeks. Petrol and diesel prices typically lag Brent moves by 10-14 days through wholesale and retail margins; a sustained Brent at $97 would translate into pump prices roughly 8-12 pence per litre lower than the post-war peak. Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s cost-of-living package — including the cancellation of a planned 5p rise in fuel duty — would compound the relief if the oil-price move proves durable. UK markets were closed today for the Spring Bank Holiday; the FTSE 100 reopens Tuesday with the question of how much oil-price relief is already in the price.
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Jones’s “Fantasy Politics” Warning Holds Through Bank Holiday Weekend
Senior Starmer ally Darren Jones, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, warned Labour against playing “fantasy politics” on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg yesterday: there is no “magic answer” to the country’s problems and “Britain is poorer and weaker than it needs to be”. Jones said Andy Burnham is “a brilliant politician” and he would campaign for him in Makerfield. The framing held through the Monday bank-holiday news cycle as the dominant cabinet-side line on the leadership question. Jones added: “Irrespective of individual ambitions from any of my colleagues, the big questions the country faces are still the big questions the country faces.”
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Alan Johnson — Burnham “Would Have To Call Snap General Election”
Former Home Secretary Alan Johnson said yesterday that Labour MPs would be “daft” if they backed a leadership bid by Andy Burnham. Johnson told Radio 4’s Broadcasting House: “Absolutely no case for Keir Starmer to step down.” Asked whether Burnham should be Prime Minister, Johnson said: “Absolutely not.” Johnson suggested Burnham would have to call a snap general election if he became Prime Minister — a mandate-renewal mechanism that would be the operational test of whether a Burnham premiership could survive its own elevation. The framing has been picked up across the Monday papers and continues to anchor the cabinet-side defensive argument against a leadership transition.
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Streeting’s Substantive Policy Spine — Wealth Tax + Sure Start + Planning Reforms
Wes Streeting has set out a policy platform combining a wealth tax to fund a return of the New Labour-era Sure Start programme, and planning reforms to fund council homes to prevent children growing up in temporary accommodation. The Streeting platform now competes substantively with Burnham’s constitutional-reform-plus-NHS positioning for the same Tribune-Group-adjacent soft-left base. Streeting told reporters on Friday he had “the numbers including ministers” to launch a leadership bid against Sir Keir Starmer but held off “to give Andy Burnham the chance” to fight the Makerfield by-election.
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Reeves Cost-of-Living Package Starts to Bite as Brent Drops
Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s cost-of-living package this week — the cancellation of a planned 5p rise in fuel duty, free bus travel for children over the summer holiday, a VAT reduction from 20% to 5% on tickets for summer attractions (theme parks, zoos and museums), the removal of import tariffs from 100 food items including biscuits and baked beans, a VAT cut on children’s meals, and a £120 million support package for the ceramics industry — provides the Treasury-side answer to the political-economy challenge that has dogged Labour since the Iran war began on 28 February. Friends of Reeves believe there is a world in which she survives the transition to a Burnham premiership precisely because it would reassure the markets.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- President Donald Trump tempered Saturday’s “largely negotiated” framing on Sunday, posting on Truth Social that he had told US representatives “not to rush into a deal” with Iran. “Time is on our side. The Blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.” A senior Trump administration official told reporters yesterday an agreement would not be signed Sunday, that Iran had agreed “in principle” to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade, and to dispose of Tehran’s highly enriched uranium — though there was no immediate Iranian confirmation of what “in principle” means.
- The proposed framework now sequences first: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US naval blockade. Sanctions relief and the release of Iran’s frozen funds happen only after the strait reopens and is fully functioning, US officials said. A 60-day window follows for nuclear-programme negotiations, including Iran’s pledged commitment to never pursue a nuclear weapon and to enter negotiations on giving up its highly enriched uranium stockpile while pausing new enrichment. Brent settled at $102.30 at Friday’s close; London opens this morning with the “reached, certified, and signed” framing as the dominant variable for European energy and gilt pricing.
- Senior Starmer ally Darren Jones, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, warned Labour against “fantasy politics” on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg yesterday: there is no “magic answer” to the country’s problems and “Britain is poorer and weaker than it needs to be”. Former Home Secretary Alan Johnson said Labour MPs would be “daft” to back an Andy Burnham leadership bid and that Burnham would have to call a snap general election if he became Prime Minister; Johnson said there is “absolutely no case for Keir Starmer to step down”. The Makerfield by-election is 18 June.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump — “No Rush”, “Time On Our Side”; Blockade Stays Until Signed
President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday: “I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side.” He added: “The Blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed… Both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes!” The post tempered Saturday’s “largely negotiated” framing by 24 hours and put the US naval blockade of Iranian ports back at the centre of the leverage calculation. Trump separately said: “If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one… So don’t listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about.”
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Senior US Official — Iran Agreed “In Principle”; Hormuz First, Uranium Later
A senior Trump administration official told reporters on Sunday an agreement with Iran would not be signed yesterday because the Iranian system “did not move fast enough”. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said Iran had agreed “in principle” to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the United States lifting its naval blockade, and to dispose of Tehran’s highly enriched uranium. There was no immediate Iranian confirmation or elaboration on what “in principle” meant. Washington envisions first re-opening the strait and lifting the US naval blockade; negotiating the details of the nuclear measures would take more time.
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Sanctions Relief, Frozen-Funds Release Only After Hormuz Fully Functions
The unfreezing of Iranian assets will occur only once the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, a senior US administration official said yesterday. Sanctions imposed on Iran will only be lifted once the strait is open and fully functioning again. The conditional sequencing — Hormuz first, then everything else — is the operational architecture of the proposed memorandum of understanding. Iran has committed not to pursue a nuclear weapon and would enter negotiations on giving up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and pausing any new enrichment. Multiple Iranian outlets reported on Sunday that the strait would remain under Iranian supervision over a 30-day period, with shipping returning to pre-war levels.
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Five Unresolved Issues; Iran Rejects Efforts to Defer Core Demands
IRGC-affiliated reporting has identified frozen assets, sanctions relief, the US naval blockade, Lebanon, and the Strait of Hormuz as the main unresolved issues — every issue in the first stage of the proposed agreement, before talks on the nuclear programme begin. Mediators appear to be trying to preserve momentum by sequencing the unresolved issues and developing technical arrangements for the strait, but Iranian reporting indicates Iran has rejected efforts to defer its core demands. The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency said differences remain over “one or two clauses” and a source said there would be no final understanding if the US continued to “create obstacles”.
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Iran “Stalling” to Normalise Hormuz Control; “Deal or Force” the Binary
Iran is likely stalling and delaying the negotiations process precisely because the protraction of the current situation serves Iran’s interests by normalising its de facto control of transit through the Strait of Hormuz. One of Iran’s primary negotiating objectives is to secure sovereignty over the strait — an objective more important to Tehran than fee revenue from merchant vessels. The strait will not return to normal without either a deal that ends Iranian control or a US-led military operation that forces the strait open. Recognition of Iranian claims of sovereignty is both unacceptable and fails to accomplish a return to normal. The binary the international community now faces is “deal or force”.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Jones — Warns Labour Against “Fantasy Politics”; “No Magic Answer”
Senior Starmer ally Darren Jones, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, warned Labour against playing “fantasy politics” on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg yesterday. With Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting both positioning themselves to replace the Prime Minister, Jones said there is no “magic answer” to fix the country’s problems. “Irrespective of individual ambitions from any of my colleagues, the big questions the country faces are still the big questions the country faces,” he said. “Britain is poorer and weaker than it needs to be.” Jones said Burnham is “a brilliant politician” and he would campaign for him in Makerfield.
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Alan Johnson — Labour MPs “Daft” to Back Burnham; Snap-Election Warning
Former Home Secretary Alan Johnson said yesterday that Labour MPs would be “daft” if they backed a leadership bid by Andy Burnham. Johnson said: “Absolutely no case for Keir Starmer to step down.” Asked whether Burnham should be Prime Minister, Johnson said: “Absolutely not.” Johnson suggested Burnham would have to call a snap general election if he became Prime Minister — a mandate-renewal mechanism that would be the operational test of whether a Burnham premiership could survive its own elevation. The Prime Minister has insisted he will not walk away from No 10 if Burnham wins the 18 June by-election and triggers a leadership contest.
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Streeting Platform — Wealth Tax + Sure Start + Planning Reforms for Council Homes
Wes Streeting has set out a policy platform including a wealth tax to fund a return of the New Labour-era Sure Start programme, and planning reforms to fund council homes to prevent children growing up in temporary accommodation. Streeting told reporters on Friday he had “the numbers including ministers” to launch a leadership bid against Sir Keir Starmer but held off “to give Andy Burnham the chance” to fight the Makerfield by-election. The Streeting platform now has substantive social-policy content (Sure Start, council homes, wealth tax) that competes with Burnham’s constitutional-reform-plus-NHS positioning.
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Al Carns — Selly Oak Armed Forces Minister Emerges as Dark Horse
Al Carns, the Labour MP for Birmingham Selly Oak and minister for the armed forces, is being talked up in some Labour circles as a dark horse leadership contender. Carns was first elected in 2024 with a majority of 11,537 and was swiftly promoted to veterans minister, then minister for the armed forces in last September’s reshuffle. Carns published an article in the New Statesman titled “How Labour can win again”, in which he wrote “too many people in this country work hard and still struggle”. He would need the support of 81 Parliamentary colleagues to get on the ballot paper of any leadership contest if one is triggered.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Details of the emerging US-Iran deal firmed up through the day. Two regional officials briefed on the negotiations said today the agreement includes a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the Strait of Hormuz reopens with no tolls and Iran clears the mines it laid; Iran would freely sell oil through sanctions waivers; and the US would lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran would commit never to pursue nuclear weapons and to negotiate the suspension of uranium enrichment and the removal of its highly enriched uranium stockpile during the 60-day window. But a senior Iranian source today denied Tehran had agreed to hand over its uranium — the central US demand — and an Iranian military spokesman said Iran will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz “even in the event of an agreement with the United States”.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio said today “significant progress, although not final progress, has been made” in the talks. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said: “We remain ready for talks, but the experience of past negotiations with the US forces us to exercise the utmost caution.” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi posted on social media: Iran is “seeking peace with strength, pursuing diplomacy with dignity and firmly defending the territorial integrity, independence and rights of our beloved Iran”. The Sunday political shows in the UK led with the Labour leadership question, with the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg airing at 09:00.
- If a final agreement is reached, US forces that moved to the area in recent months to support the assault on Iran would withdraw. President Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday that he will not sign any final agreement without conditions that Iran dismantle its entire nuclear programme and remove all enriched uranium from the country. Brent eased to $102.30 at Friday’s close, ten-year gilts at 5.02%; markets re-open Monday with the “largely negotiated” framework as the dominant variable for European and Asian energy pricing.
GEO Geopolitical
US-Iran Deal Details — 60-Day Hormuz Reopening, Sanctions Waivers, Uranium Dispute
Two regional officials briefed on the Pakistan-led negotiations said today the United States is close to a deal with Iran that would end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and see Iran give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Under the emerging agreement, the Strait of Hormuz would gradually reopen in parallel with the US ending its blockade of Iran’s ports. The US would allow Iran to sell oil through sanctions waivers, with sanctions relief and the release of Iran’s frozen funds negotiated during a 60-day time frame. The draft deal also includes an end to the war between Israel and Hezbollah and a commitment to non-interference in the domestic affairs of countries in the region.
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Iran Denies Uranium Handover; Military — “Iran Will Continue to Control” Strait
A senior Iranian source said today that Tehran has not agreed to hand over its uranium stockpile to the United States. An Iranian military spokesman stressed on X that Iran would continue to control the Strait of Hormuz even in the event of an agreement with the United States. IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported the potential agreement allocates 30 days for procedures related to the Strait of Hormuz and a 60-day period for nuclear talks, and that Iran has not yet accepted any actions on its nuclear programme. The Iranian counter-briefing today directly disputes the President Trump “largely negotiated” framing of Saturday night.
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Rubio — “Significant Progress, Not Final”; Pezeshkian Urges “Utmost Caution”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio struck a cooler tone today than the President had on Saturday night, saying: “Significant progress, although not final progress, has been made.” Rubio repeated the US position that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon and must turn over its highly enriched uranium, and the Strait of Hormuz must be opened. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, whose office released a statement today, said: “We remain ready for talks, but the experience of past negotiations with the US forces us to exercise the utmost caution.” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi posted on social media early Sunday that Iran is “seeking peace with strength, pursuing diplomacy with dignity and firmly defending the territorial integrity, independence and rights of our beloved Iran”.
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Pakistan’s Sharif and Munir Push Iran Toward Deal in Tehran Visit
Iran today hosted Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, who met with Iran’s political and military leadership and pushed for Tehran to agree to the proposed agreement. The Sharif-Munir Sunday visit follows Munir’s “short but highly productive” visit on Saturday and is the most senior Pakistani diplomatic deployment since the negotiating process began. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also spoke with European and regional counterparts and the United Nations Secretary General António Guterres today, seeking to defuse tensions.
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Iran “Stalling” to Normalise Hormuz Control; “Deal or Force” the Binary Choice
One of Iran’s primary negotiating objectives is to secure sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — an objective more important to Tehran than fee revenue from merchant vessels. Iran is likely stalling and delaying the negotiations process precisely because the protraction of the current situation serves Iran’s interests by letting Tehran normalise its de facto control of transit through the strait. The international community cannot “wait out” Iran’s control. The strait will not return to normal without either a deal that ends Iranian control or a US-led military operation that forces the strait open. Recognition of Iranian claims of sovereignty is both unacceptable and fails to accomplish a return to normal.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Sunday Political Shows — Leadership Question Dominates; Kuenssberg Airs 09:00
Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg aired at 09:00 on BBC One, with the Labour leadership question the dominant frame across all the morning political shows today. The previous week’s edition was explicitly titled “Can Starmer Survive?”. The 18 June Makerfield by-election is the operational test of whether Andy Burnham can convert his personal popularity into an MP seat and from there a leadership challenge; a Burnham loss would, on his own allies’ admission, end his ambitions.
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Burnham — “Great Resentment” About IHT; Care Levy to “Save NHS”
Andy Burnham used Friday’s Makerfield campaign launch to put the NHS firmly on the agenda. Burnham said: “There is a great resentment about inheritance tax — take that away and look at a care levy.” The Greater Manchester mayor said he thought the NHS was “almost being overwhelmed” by a “broken” care system. The IHT-to-social-care-levy idea picks up a long-running social-policy thread: think tanks across the political spectrum have argued for hypothecating funds for adult social care, but no major UK party has previously made an explicit pledge. Burnham is the first senior Labour figure with realistic leadership prospects to put it formally on the table.
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“Operation Save Starmer” — Economy + Inflation Tailwinds; Bank Rates on Downward Path
Inside Downing Street, Starmer’s allies now believe they can “Keep Keir In”. New figures show the economy growing above expectations, inflation has slowed to 2.8% — the lowest level in over a year — and Rachel Reeves’s preferred environment of lower interest rates to protect mortgage holders is likely to remain the Bank of England’s stance with unemployment beginning to rise. Reeves’s cost-of-living package this week — free bus travel for children, the cancellation of a planned 5p rise in fuel duty, a VAT cut from 20% to 5% on summer attraction tickets, 100 food-tariff removals, and a £120m support package for the ceramics industry — is the substantive policy spine of the Prime Minister’s argument that the hard decisions are bearing fruit.
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BBC Radio Manchester — Makerfield Candidates Series Underway
BBC Radio Manchester is running a series of interviews this week with candidates for the 18 June Makerfield by-election. Andy Burnham took questions from presenter Mike Sweeney and audience members on Wednesday; Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon and Liberal Democrat Stockport councillor Jake Austin appear in the same series later in the week. The format — candidates fielding live audience questions — is the most direct constituency-level testing of campaign positioning to date. The writ for the by-election was moved by the Commons speaker after Josh Simons’s resignation; polling day is 21-27 days from the writ.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- President Donald Trump said overnight that a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal with Iran — including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — has been “largely negotiated”. Iran disputes the strait claim. Iran’s Fars news agency said early Sunday that the agreement would allow Iran to manage the Strait of Hormuz, calling Trump’s reopening assertion “inconsistent with reality”. Iran and Pakistan submitted a revised proposal to Washington on Saturday; a formal US response is expected today. Two Pakistani sources described the deal being negotiated as “fairly comprehensive to terminate the war”.
- Andy Burnham used his Makerfield campaign launch on Friday to say he would look at Wes Streeting’s proposal for a wealth tax and suggested inheritance tax could be abolished and replaced with a social care levy paid to fund improvement in the sector. Burnham’s allies suggest Ed Miliband as his pick for chancellor. Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s allies are lobbying Labour MPs in defence of her job — warning Miliband “would not be trusted by the bond markets”. The leadership-and-chancellor question now defines the next four weeks of UK politics ahead of the 18 June Makerfield vote.
- The proposed Iran framework would unfold in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the Hormuz crisis and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement. Two-month negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme would follow. The Strait of Hormuz would be reopened and the US would end its blockade of Iranian ports. Brent eased to $102.30 at Friday’s close, ten-year gilts at 5.02%; the operational variable for Monday’s European open is whether Washington accepts the proposal today.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump — Iran Deal “Largely Negotiated”; Hormuz Reopening Claimed
President Donald Trump said on Saturday night that a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal with Iran has been “largely negotiated”, with details to be unveiled soon. “Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform. Trump posted that the emerging agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He said he had spoken with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain, and separately with Israel. The Gulf and regional leaders encouraged Trump to agree to the emerging framework.
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Iran’s Fars — Trump’s Hormuz Reopening Claim “Inconsistent With Reality”
Iran’s Fars news agency, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, reported early on Sunday that the emerging agreement would allow Iran to manage the Strait of Hormuz, and that Trump’s assertion the strait would be reopened was “inconsistent with reality”. Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said on Saturday that the strait “does not concern” the United States and that Iran and Oman should define a mechanism for the waterway as coastal states. Tasnim News Agency, also IRGC-affiliated, reported that Iran has demanded the strait not return to its pre-war mechanism and “legal regime”, and that negotiations will not proceed while the US naval blockade remains in place.
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Iran and Pakistan Submit Revised Proposal; US Response Expected Today
Iran and Pakistan submitted a revised proposal to the United States late on Saturday to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, two Pakistani sources familiar with the negotiations said. A US response is expected today. “The deal is fairly comprehensive,” a Pakistani official involved in the negotiations said. “It is never over till it is done.” Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir left Tehran on Saturday after talks with Iran’s top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The Pakistan military statement on Saturday described the visit as “short but highly productive” with “encouraging progress” towards a final understanding.
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Three-Stage Framework — End War, Resolve Hormuz, 30-Day Window
The proposed framework would unfold in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement, which can be extended. A two-month negotiation track on Iran’s nuclear programme would follow the war-ending declaration. Iran has demanded an end to the US blockade of Iranian ports, the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil sales, the release of frozen funds and supervision of the strait. If the US and Iran agree, the memorandum would lead to further talks after the Eid holiday ends on Friday.
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Iran’s Counterproposal Frontloads Demands; “Regime Believes It Is Winning”
Iran’s latest counterproposal frontloads its key demands on the withdrawal of “a US threat to Iran”, financial relief, and Iran’s “right” to manage the Strait of Hormuz, while attempting to delay discussion of Iran’s nuclear programme. The proposal indicates the Iranian regime believes it is winning the war and is negotiating from a position of strength. Iranian officials continue to emphasise Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz as the key sticking point. Iran has demanded an end to the US naval blockade and said negotiations will not proceed while the blockade remains in place.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham — Open to Wealth Tax; Abolish IHT, Replace with Social Care Levy
Andy Burnham used Friday’s Makerfield campaign launch to say he would look at proposals from Wes Streeting, the former health secretary, for a wealth tax. Burnham also suggested that inheritance tax could be abolished and replaced with a social care levy paid to fund improvement in the sector. The proposals position the Burnham leadership pitch materially to the left of the 2024 Starmer-Reeves prospectus: alongside his earlier commitments to proportional representation, council tax reform, rail renationalisation and more council houses, the Burnham platform now has a substantive fiscal architecture distinct from the current government.
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Reeves Rearguard Continues — Allies Warn Bond Markets Reject Miliband
Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s backbench-lobbying push continues this weekend. Reeves has told friends she would like to stay in the chancellorship even under a new prime minister, and her allies are urging MPs to back her if Sir Keir Starmer is replaced later this year. “The biggest fear for the bond markets and the unions is Ed Miliband,” one Labour MP close to Reeves said. “I am concerned that we may lose everything if a new leader sacrifices the chancellor for promises and new alliances they are currently forging with MPs who fancy the job for themselves.” Friends of Reeves believe there is a world in which she survives the transition to a Burnham premiership precisely because it would reassure the markets.
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“Operation Save Starmer” — Burnham Not “Nailed On”; Streeting Failed to Get Numbers
Inside Downing Street, Starmer’s allies now believe they can “Keep Keir In”. On Starmer’s reckoning, as one ally put it, Burnham is far from “nailed on” in Makerfield; and Wes Streeting will have a struggle to get back into the leadership race on favourable terms, having resigned from cabinet only to fail to secure “the numbers”. The Prime Minister broke this week with his aloof communications style by walking across Downing Street to chat directly to the press, and joked publicly about his tongue slip in the Commons about a “North Korea trade deal” (he meant South Korea).
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Sunday Politics — “Can Starmer Survive?” Question Dominates Morning Shows
The Sunday morning political shows today are dominated by the leadership question, with the previous week’s edition of the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg explicitly titled “Can Starmer Survive?”. The Makerfield by-election on 18 June is the operational testing ground: a Burnham win is widely seen as the launch pad for a formal leadership challenge; a Burnham loss would, on his allies’ own admission, end his ambitions. Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon — a local plumber who came within 5,399 votes of Josh Simons in 2024 — is the operational test of whether Labour’s migration tightening and Burnham’s personal pull are enough to check Reform’s advance into traditional Labour territory.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir concluded a “short but highly productive” visit to Tehran on Saturday, Pakistan’s military said, with “encouraging progress” towards a final understanding. But Iran’s top negotiator, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, told Munir Iran “will not compromise on national rights” and called the United States “not an honest party”. Qalibaf warned Iran’s armed forces had “rebuilt their capabilities during the ceasefire” and if Washington “foolishly restarts the war”, the consequences would be “more forceful and bitter” than at the start. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran is in the “final stages of drafting a framework” with a 30-to-60-day timeline for memorandum-of-understanding details — but “deep and significant” disagreements remain.
- Andy Burnham’s first weekend of Makerfield campaigning has begun. Wes Streeting, who resigned from the Cabinet earlier this month, said in an interview in an interview overnight he had “the numbers including ministers” to launch a leadership bid against Sir Keir Starmer but held off “to give Andy Burnham the chance” to fight Makerfield. “If I’d rushed ahead and triggered a leadership contest before Andy Burnham had the chance to come back, people would have just said I was trying to pull a fast one,” Streeting said in an interview. Streeting also unveiled his “first campaign pledges”: fund the full restoration of Sure Start, paid for by a wealth tax.
- Iran has launched an “information operation” to frame its protection-racket scheme in the Strait of Hormuz as a legitimate maritime security service. Vessels dealing with Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority have sometimes received payment requests of up to $2 million for safe passage; Reuters reports most ships pay around $150,000. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have jointly written to the International Maritime Organization warning that any recognition of Iran’s proposed transit rules “would set a dangerous precedent”. Brent eased to $102.30 at Friday’s close, ten-year gilts at 5.02%; markets re-open Monday with Iran-Pakistan diplomacy as the operational variable.
GEO Geopolitical
Qalibaf to Munir — “Will Not Compromise”; US “Not Honest Party”
Iran’s top negotiator, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, told Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir during talks in Tehran on Saturday that the United States was “not an honest party” in negotiations to end the war and that Iran “would not compromise on its national rights”. Qalibaf said Iran would pursue its “legitimate rights”, both on the battlefield and through diplomacy, but added it could not trust “a party that has no honesty at all”. He warned that Iran’s armed forces had “rebuilt their capabilities during the ceasefire” and if the United States “foolishly restarts the war”, the consequences would be “more forceful and bitter” than at the start of the conflict.
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Pakistan Army “Encouraging Progress”; Baghaei — Framework in 30-60 Days
Pakistan’s military said in a statement on Saturday that Field Marshal Munir had concluded a “short but highly productive” official visit to Iran, during which “encouraging progress” was made towards reaching a final understanding. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told state broadcaster IRIB on Saturday that Tehran was in the “final stages of drafting a framework for a deal to end the war with the US”: “Within a reasonable period of 30 to 60 days, the details of these points will be discussed, and a final agreement will ultimately be concluded. We are currently in the process of finalising these memoranda of understanding.” But Baghaei also said Munir’s visit “does not mean we have reached a turning point or a decisive situation”, adding that “deep and significant” disagreements remained.
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Iran “Information Operation”; Vessels Paying $150K-$2M for Hormuz Transit
Iran has launched an information operation to frame its protection racket in the Strait of Hormuz as a legitimate maritime security service. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy claimed on 22 May that 35 vessels transited the strait in the past 24 hours after obtaining Iranian “permission” and “security”. this “security” is “effectively protection from attacks by Iranian forces, which is the only force that has threatened shipping in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026.” Bloomberg reports vessels dealing with Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority have sometimes received payment requests of up to $2 million for safe passage; Reuters reports most ships pay around $150,000.
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Five Gulf States Joint IMO Statement; “Dangerous Precedent”
Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have jointly written in a statement to the International Maritime Organization that Iran appears to be attempting “to control traffic” through the Strait of Hormuz by forcing vessels to use a route within its territorial waters. The statement warned that any recognition of Iran’s proposed route or the Persian Gulf Strait Authority “would set a dangerous precedent”. “The war cannot end in a way that secures US and allied interests until Iran abandons its effort to control the strait. Recognition or compliance with Iranian transit rules would allow the regime to achieve de facto control over the strait.”
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France Drafts UNSC Resolution for International Hormuz Mission
France has drafted a United Nations Security Council resolution proposing an international mission to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. A competing US-Bahraini proposal faces resistance from Russia and China, which have signalled they may veto the measure. The dispute over control of the strategic waterway has become a key obstacle in efforts to end the US-Israeli war on Iran amid rising oil prices and shipping disruptions. Iran said Saturday that fees and tolls linked to transit through the Strait of Hormuz are part of a “security service” provided to vessels crossing the strategic waterway, as Tehran rejects US threats of escalation and asserts control under what it calls a “new reality”.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
First Weekend of Makerfield Campaigning Begins
The first weekend of campaigning is set to get under way in Makerfield, in a by-election that Andy Burnham has said could “change Labour”. Burnham, who is viewed as a challenger to Sir Keir Starmer in a potential Labour leadership race, launched his by-election campaign on Friday and promised he was not offering “more of the same”. He faces Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon — a plumber who said he is “ready to take on the King of the North” in a reference to Burnham’s nickname — and Liberal Democrat Stockport councillor Jake Austin. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage joined Kenyon on the campaign trail earlier this week and described the by-election as a “David versus Goliath battle”.
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Streeting’s Mirror Interview — “Numbers Including Ministers”
Wes Streeting, who resigned from the Cabinet earlier this month, said in an interview in an interview overnight that he had “the numbers including ministers” to launch a leadership bid against Sir Keir Starmer but held off “to give Andy Burnham the chance” to fight the Makerfield by-election. “If I’d rushed ahead and triggered a leadership contest before Andy Burnham had the chance to come back, people would have just said I was trying to pull a fast one, trying to get ahead of the competition,” Streeting said. He also unveiled his “first campaign pledges”: fund the full restoration of Sure Start, paid for by a wealth tax.
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Burnham — PR + Council Tax Reform; “Honour Manifestos”
Andy Burnham used the launch of his Makerfield campaign to commit publicly for the first time to wanting a proportional representation pledge in the next Labour manifesto, and to back council tax reform. Asked about the 2024 manifesto, Burnham said: “I think you’ve got to honour manifestos” — appearing to rule out breaking promises Labour made at the general election. He said there is “space to be more radical” within Labour’s 2024 manifesto, including building more council houses and with rail renationalisation.
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Starmer Says “100% Behind” Burnham; Will Campaign in Makerfield
Sir Keir Starmer said on Thursday he would campaign personally in the Makerfield by-election for Andy Burnham. “I want to be part of that, of course I do,” Starmer told reporters. “I’ve said to the whole Labour movement that I want everybody to be involved in the campaign, whatever other discussions are going on. It’s really important — that’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform.” The by-election takes place on 18 June.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir arrived in Tehran on Friday to join Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who had met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi twice in two days. A Qatari negotiating team is also in Tehran in coordination with the United States; Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Sweden that Pakistan remains the “primary interlocutor”. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei tempered expectations: “deep and extensive differences remain… we cannot necessarily say we have reached a point where a deal is near.” A third Qatari LNG tanker (Al Sahla) is transiting the Strait of Hormuz to China.
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves has launched a rearguard action to save her job this morning, telling friends she would like to stay even under a new prime minister. Her supporters are now actively lobbying Labour MPs — warning that Burnham’s reported preferred chancellor pick, Ed Miliband, “would not be trusted by the bond markets”. The chancellor question is now, “almost as important as that for prime minister”. Brent has eased further to $102.30; ten-year gilts at 5.02%, down sixteen basis points from Friday a week ago.
- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said on 22 May that 35 vessels have now transited the Strait of Hormuz after obtaining Iranian “permits” and “security” — framed by ISW as the operational rollout of the “mafia-esque protection racket”. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the International Maritime Organization have all rejected Iran’s claim that the strait is in its territorial waters. The United Nations nuclear non-proliferation treaty review conference concluded last night without agreement after four weeks.
GEO Geopolitical
Pakistan Defence Chief Munir Arrives Tehran; Mediation Enters Decisive Phase
Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces, Field Marshal Asim Munir, arrived in Tehran on Friday to join Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who had met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi twice in two days. Munir was at the centre of the only direct US-Iran negotiations in April, hosting Vice President JD Vance in Islamabad. A Qatari negotiating team also arrived in Tehran on Friday in coordination with the United States.
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Iran’s Baghaei — “Deep and Extensive Differences Remain”; Hopes Tempered
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei tempered expectations of a breakthrough on Friday, saying that “deep and extensive” differences remain between Washington and Tehran. “We cannot necessarily say we have reached a point where a deal is near,” Baghaei said, according to Iran’s state news agency IRNA. The Qatari delegation was holding talks with Foreign Minister Araghchi, Baghaei confirmed, while Pakistan remained the main mediator. Baghaei added that the focus of the current negotiations was ending the war and that nuclear details were “not being discussed at this stage” — consistent with Iran’s position that war-end guarantees must precede detailed nuclear talks.
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IRGC Says 35 Vessels Obtained “Permits”; Gulf States + IMO Reject
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said on Friday that 35 vessels have transited the Strait of Hormuz after obtaining Iranian “permits” and “security”. the “security” as “effectively protection from attacks by Iranian forces, which is the only force that has threatened shipping in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026”. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the International Maritime Organization have all formally rejected Iran’s claim that the strait is in its territorial waters. “The war cannot end in a way that secures US and allied interests until Iran abandons its effort to control the strait.”
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UN Non-Proliferation Treaty Conference Concludes Without Agreement
The United Nations nuclear non-proliferation treaty review conference concluded last night after four weeks without an agreement, the Associated Press reports, with the United States and Iran on opposite sides throughout. The US called Iran a “prolific violator of the treaty” and said Tehran spent the conference “evading accountability for its grotesque violations”. Iran accused Washington and its allies of an “implacable campaign” to legitimise “illegal attacks” against the country and its nuclear facilities. The conference, which began on 27 April, ran in parallel to the Pakistani-mediated US-Iran direct negotiating track.
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Third Qatari LNG Tanker Through Hormuz to China; First to Beijing-Direct
A third Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker, the Al Sahla (211,842 cubic metres), is transiting the Strait of Hormuz and heading to China, the first material commercial movement to China direct since the war began. The vessel left Ras Laffan and is expected to arrive at China’s Tianjin LNG terminal on 14 June. The previous two Qatari LNG tankers to make it through the strait since the US-Israeli airstrikes unleashed the war at the end of February were sold by Qatar to Pakistan under a government-to-government deal. Shipments “continue to be erratic”.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Reeves Rearguard; Allies Warn Bond Markets Would Reject Miliband
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has launched a rearguard action to save her job this morning, telling friends she would like to stay in the post even under a new prime minister. Her supporters have been urging MPs to back her if Sir Keir Starmer is replaced later this year, saying she is the only candidate who can safeguard the country’s finances. Reports have suggested Andy Burnham is considering appointing Energy Secretary Ed Miliband as chancellor if he makes it to No 10. Reeves’ allies are warning that Miliband “would not be trusted by the bond markets, which set the government’s borrowing costs”. One Labour insider: “The fight over who gets to be chancellor is almost as important as that for prime minister.”
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Burnham “Change By-election”; Thinly Veiled No 10 Pitch
Andy Burnham formally launched his Makerfield by-election campaign in Ashton-in-Makerfield on Friday with what the Guardian described as “a barely coded pitch for Downing Street”, saying a vote for him would be “a vote to change Labour”. Burnham: “This is a change by-election. British politics needs to change its tired old script.” And: “I’m prepared to take that fight as high as I can go. I want to play whatever part I can in changing this party back to the party here people used to know.” In a question-and-answer session, Burnham committed for the first time to a specific electoral-reform pledge: he would want a commitment in the next Labour manifesto to introduce a proportional voting system.
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Burnham — Migration “Needs to Fall Further”; Doorstep Concerns
At Friday’s Makerfield campaign launch, Andy Burnham said that UK net migration “needs to fall further”, after Office for National Statistics data on Thursday showed net migration had almost halved to 171,000 in 2025. People on the doorstep, Burnham said, have “raised their concerns about immigration” with him. The Greater Manchester mayor said the latest figures show the “trend is significantly down” but added the government must “get the balance right” on its plans to make it harder for migrants to settle permanently in the UK. The Home Office has forecast around 1.6 million people could settle in the UK between 2026 and 2030 if no further changes are made.
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Starmer Says “100% Behind” Burnham; Will Campaign in Makerfield
Sir Keir Starmer told reporters on Thursday he would campaign personally in the Makerfield by-election for Andy Burnham. “I want to be part of that, of course I do,” the Prime Minister said. “I’ve said to the whole Labour movement that I want everybody to be involved in the campaign, whatever other discussions are going on. It’s really important — that’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform.” Asked by reporters whether Burnham would want Starmer’s help, Burnham at his Friday launch dodged the question, telling reporters only that “anyone who agrees with me would be welcome”.
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Mahmood’s Migration “Success Story”; Burnham “Rowed Back”
The Times editorial framed the 171,000 net-migration figure as Labour’s “immigration success story” on Thursday evening — Mahmood’s skills-based programme vindicated after Mahmood “came bottom in a poll of Labour members testing the popularity of cabinet ministers” last month. The Times: “Mr Burnham, who initially echoed Ms Rayner’s sentiments, has rowed back. He appears to realise that the only way to defeat Reform UK in Makerfield, and across the country, is to recognise the visceral power of immigration on the doorstep.” The detoxification framing — if it holds — could check the Reform UK advance into Labour territory.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran today for a second round of mediation talks. A Qatari negotiating team also arrived in Tehran. A third Qatari LNG tanker (Al Sahla) is transiting the Strait of Hormuz on its way to China. Pakistan and Qatar have drafted a revised memo to bridge US-Iran gaps; Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are supporting the effort.
- Andy Burnham formally launched his Makerfield by-election campaign in Ashton-in-Makerfield today — the Guardian frames it as a “thinly veiled pitch for No 10”. Burnham: “This is a change by-election. British politics needs to change its tired old script… I’m prepared to take that fight as high as I can go.” He committed publicly for the first time to wanting a proportional representation pledge in the next Labour manifesto. Sir Keir Starmer said yesterday he would “100% behind” the Labour candidate; The Times editorial today vindicates Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s migration programme as Labour’s “immigration success story”.
- Ukrainian forces struck Russia’s Syzran Oil Refinery in Samara Oblast yesterday — Rosneft’s plant processing 7-8 million tons of oil per year. Russia and Belarus concluded their joint nuclear-weapons exercise today, involving more than 64,000 personnel and reportedly involving the majority of Russia’s estimated 320 ICBM launchers. Brent has eased further to $102.80; ten-year gilts at 5.02%, off Friday’s 5.18% peak by 16 basis points.
GEO Geopolitical
Pakistan’s Naqvi Meets Araghchi Again in Tehran; Framework Talks
Pakistan’s Interior Minister Syed Mohsin Naqvi met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran on Friday for a second round of mediation talks aimed at narrowing the gap between Iran and the United States. The discussions focused on developing a framework to resolve the substantive differences; Naqvi delivered the latest US message to the Iranian side two days ago. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said yesterday there were “some good signs” in the talks but that he did not want to be overly optimistic. A senior Iranian source said that while the two sides’ positions have moved closer, uranium enrichment and Hormuz controls remain the largest remaining sticking points.
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Third Qatari LNG Tanker Through Hormuz to China; Al Sahla En Route
A third Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker is transiting the Strait of Hormuz today and heading to China, as a Qatari negotiating team arrived in Tehran to try to help secure a deal to end the war with Iran. The vessel, Al Sahla, with a capacity of 211,842 cubic metres, left Ras Laffan and is expected to arrive at China’s Tianjin LNG terminal on 14 June. The previous two Qatari LNG tankers to make it through the strait since the US-Israeli airstrikes unleashed the Iran war at the end of February were sold by Qatar to Pakistan under a government-to-government deal, according to two people familiar with the matter.
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Pakistan-Qatar Revised Memo; Iran-Oman Discussing Permanent Hormuz Toll
Iran has not yet submitted a response to the latest US proposal as multiple mediators continue to narrow gaps. Pakistan and Qatar have drafted a revised memo to bridge US-Iran gaps; Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are supporting the effort. Iranian media said the proposal has narrowed some gaps “to some extent”, but that further progress depends on whether the United States moves away from military threats. Separately, Iranian Ambassador to France Mohammad Amin Nejad said on 21 May that Iran and Oman are discussing a permanent toll system to formalise Iranian control over maritime traffic through the strait.
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Khamenei Directive Hardens Tehran’s Negotiating Position
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s directive yesterday that Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile “should not leave the country” continues to harden Tehran’s negotiating position into Friday. Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday: “We will get it. We don’t need it, we don’t want it. We’ll probably destroy it after we get it.” He also rejected Iran’s proposed Strait of Hormuz transit fees with “It’s an international waterway.” A senior Iranian source said one technical pathway remains open: in-country dilution of the stockpile under IAEA supervision. The IAEA estimates Iran had 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to 60% at the start of the June 2025 war.
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Ukraine Strikes Syzran Refinery; Russia-Belarus Nuclear Exercise Concludes
Ukrainian forces struck the Syzran Oil Refinery in Samara Oblast yesterday. The Rosneft-owned plant has a processing capacity of seven to eight million tons of oil per year and produces gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation kerosene and bitumen. Russia and Belarus today concluded a joint nuclear-weapons exercise that began on 19 May, involving more than 64,000 personnel and over 7,800 pieces of military equipment, including over 200 missile launchers and likely the majority of Russia’s estimated 320 ICBM launchers, according to the Russian Ministry of Defence and BBC Russian Service analysis.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham “Change By-election”; Thinly Veiled Pitch for No 10
Andy Burnham formally launched his Makerfield by-election campaign today with what the Guardian describes as “a barely coded pitch for Downing Street”, saying a vote for him would be “a vote to change Labour”. Speaking at a community sports club car park in Ashton-in-Makerfield, near Wigan, Burnham said: “This is a change by-election. British politics needs to change its tired old script and the people of Makerfield are helping us write one.” And: “I’m prepared to take that fight as high as I can go. I want to play whatever part I can in changing this party back to the party here people used to know, and the party that is solidly on the side of working-class community.”
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Burnham — “Trend Significantly Down”; Migration “Needs to Fall Further”
At today’s Makerfield campaign launch, Andy Burnham said that UK net migration “needs to fall further”, after Office for National Statistics data on Thursday showed net migration had almost halved to 171,000 in 2025. People on the doorstep, Burnham said, have “raised their concerns about immigration” with him. The Greater Manchester mayor said the latest figures show the “trend is significantly down” but added the government must “get the balance right” on its plans to make it harder for migrants to settle permanently in the UK. The Home Office has forecast around 1.6 million people could settle in the UK between 2026 and 2030 if no further changes are made.
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The Times Editorial: Mahmood’s Migration “Success Story”; Burnham “Rowed Back”
The Times editorial this evening describes Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s migration programme as “one of [the government’s] few success stories”: the 171,000 net-migration figure for 2025 is the lowest since 2012. The drop, the paper argues, reflects the closure of the visa route for the dependants of students and the introduction of tougher minimum requirements for skilled work visas. The Times: “Mr Burnham, who initially echoed Ms Rayner’s sentiments, has rowed back. He appears to realise that the only way to defeat Reform UK in Makerfield, and across the country, is to recognise the visceral power of immigration on the doorstep.”
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Starmer Says “100% Behind” Burnham; Will Campaign in Makerfield
Sir Keir Starmer told reporters on a visit to Essex yesterday he would “100% behind” Labour’s Makerfield candidate — Andy Burnham — and would personally campaign in the by-election on 18 June. “I want to be part of that, of course I do,” the Prime Minister said. “I’ve said to the whole Labour movement that I want everybody to be involved in the campaign, whatever other discussions are going on. It’s really important — that’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform.” A spokesperson for Burnham responded: “Anyone who wants to embrace Andy’s campaign message is welcome on the campaign.” Burnham’s message, has been “different”.
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Burnham Backs Mahmood Immigration Changes; Soft-Left Allies Run Campaign
Andy Burnham is backing Shabana Mahmood’s controversial changes to the immigration system, his allies said in an interview on Wednesday, in a blow to those in Labour who hoped to soften them. Those close to Burnham’s campaign say he will not seek to dilute the government’s migration curbs, which include ending the right to permanent refugee status. “Andy is fighting the most important by-election in half a century in the Labour-held seat with the largest Reform vote in the country,” a source close to the campaign said in an interview. “Immigration is the second most important issue there. He must show decisive leadership on this and reframe but back the reforms.”
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium must remain inside the country. President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday that the United States “will get” the stockpile anyway and would “probably destroy it” afterwards; he also rejected Iran’s proposed Strait of Hormuz transit fees with “It’s an international waterway.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters the tolls would “make a diplomatic deal unfeasible” but said there were “some good signs”. Brent has eased further to $103.60.
- UK net migration fell sharply to 171,000 last year, the lowest level since the COVID pandemic and the lowest non-pandemic figure since 2012. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the data showed his government was “delivering” on its promise to regain control of UK borders, adding: “I know there’s more to do.” Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham said today the migration trend is “significantly down” but “needs to fall further” — bracketing the Burnham Makerfield campaign with Home Office Shabana Mahmood’s skills-based migration programme.
- The London mayor Sadiq Khan has blocked a £50 million Met Police-Palantir AI contract, citing a “clear and serious breach” of procurement rules. Palantir’s UK head Louis Mosley hit back at the mayor today, accusing him of “putting politics above public safety”. The block is the largest UK police rejection of US AI procurement to date and creates a substantive policy split inside Labour over Palantir’s expanding NHS and policing footprint.
GEO Geopolitical
Khamenei Directive; Uranium “Should Not Leave the Country”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium “should not leave the country” on Thursday citing two senior Iranian sources, hardening Tehran’s stance on one of the central US demands in the peace talks. “The Supreme Leader’s directive, and the consensus within the establishment, is that the stockpile of enriched uranium should not leave the country,” one of the sources said. Iran’s top officials believe that sending the material abroad would leave the country “more vulnerable to future attacks by the United States and Israel”. Israeli officials have separately said that Trump has assured Israel that the stockpile “will be sent out of Iran” — an assurance now in direct contradiction with the Khamenei directive.
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Trump “We Will Get It”; Hormuz “International Waterway”
President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday that the United States “will get” Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium — in direct response to the Khamenei directive. “We will get it. We don’t need it, we don’t want it. We’ll probably destroy it after we get it, but we’re not going to let them have it,” Trump said. He separately rejected Iran’s proposed Strait of Hormuz transit fees: “We want it open, we want it free. We don’t want tolls. It’s an international waterway.” Trump remains ready to resume strikes “if we don’t get the right answers” from Iran’s leadership.
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Rubio “Hormuz Tolls Make Deal Unfeasible”; “Completely Illegal”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Thursday that a diplomatic deal between the United States and Iran would be “unfeasible” if Tehran implemented a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz. “No one in the world is in favour of the tolling system. It can’t happen. It would be unacceptable. It would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible if they were to continue to pursue that. So it’s a threat to the world if they were trying to do that, and it’s completely illegal,” Rubio said. He acknowledged there had been “some progress” in talks with Tehran but said Washington was dealing with “a system that itself is a little fractured”. “There’s some good signs… I don’t want to be overly optimistic.”
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Iran “Mafia-Esque Protection Racket”; $150,000 Per-Transit Fee
The Institute for the Study of War continues to assess that Iran is using the ceasefire to “normalize Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz” via a multi-tiered transit-fee scheme run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Russia and China sit at the top tier as strategic partners; India and Pakistan operate under negotiated bilateral agreements; other states are case-by-case; vessels linked to Iranian adversaries are denied access; ships without a bilateral framework pay approximately $150,000 per transit. the fees as “part of a mafia-esque protection racket in which the vessels pay Iran so that the Iranian navy can ‘secure’ the vessels against an attack by the Iranian navy or Iranian shore-based missiles and drones”.
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India Won’t Send More Tankers Until 13 Stranded Ships Return
India’s government wants to secure the return of its ships stranded in the Gulf before sending any vessels back to load fuel. India will send vessels to the west of the Strait of Hormuz “whenever the situation becomes conducive”, the official added. Thirteen Indian-flagged vessels and one Indian-owned vessel are still stuck on the west side of the strait. Thirteen vessels loaded with energy cargoes — mostly liquefied petroleum gas, used for cooking in India — have so far transited out of the strait since its effective closure on 28 February.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
UK Net Migration 171,000; Lowest Non-Pandemic Figure Since 2012
UK net migration fell to 171,000 in 2025 — the lowest level since the COVID pandemic and the lowest non-pandemic figure since 2012 — according to Office for National Statistics data released on Thursday. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the data showed his government was “delivering”, adding: “I know there’s more to do, we’re introducing a skills-based migration system that rewards contribution and ends our reliance on cheap overseas workers.” The Home Office said on X: “We are ending Britain’s reliance on overseas labour, ensuring migrants contribute more than they take and are increasing the removal of illegal migrants and foreign criminals.”
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Burnham (BBC): Net Migration “Needs to Fall Further”; Trend “Significantly Down”
Andy Burnham said today that UK net migration “needs to fall further”, after Home Office figures showed it had almost halved since 2024. The Greater Manchester mayor said the latest figures — net migration of 171,000 in 2025 — show the “trend is significantly down”. The intervention firmly aligns Burnham with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s skills-based crackdown ahead of his 18 June Makerfield by-election, where Reform UK’s “Brexit betrayal” attack line will test his migration positioning directly. The Home Office has forecast that around 1.6 million people could settle in the UK between 2026 and 2030 if no further changes are made.
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Khan Blocks Met-Palantir £50m; “Clear and Serious Breach”
London mayor Sadiq Khan has blocked a £50 million contract between the Metropolitan Police and the controversial US tech company Palantir, with City Hall citing a “clear and serious breach” of procurement rules. Scotland Yard had been in talks to use Palantir’s AI technology to automate intelligence analysis in criminal investigations. The Mayor’s Office for Policing and Crime withheld approval, saying Scotland Yard had seriously engaged with only one potential supplier and that the Met risked becoming locked into Palantir’s technology. Mopac said the proposed deal had not “ensured or demonstrated value for money”.
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Palantir Hits Back; Accuses Khan of “Politics Above Public Safety”
Palantir has accused Sir Sadiq Khan of “putting politics above public safety” after the London mayor blocked its £50 million Met Police contract. Louis Mosley, who heads Palantir in the UK and Europe, accused Khan of politicising procurement: “What Londoners value is not being mugged, not being raped by a serving police officer.” The block has created tensions inside Labour over the party’s broader engagement with the Palantir AI/data platform. Scotland Yard described the move as “disappointing”, adding that without new technology its ability to keep London safe would be compromised.
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Andrew Trade Envoy Files Released; Queen “Very Keen”
Newly released government files suggest the late Queen Elizabeth II was “very keen” for Prince Andrew to be made a UK trade envoy. The documents, released yesterday, highlight the role of the Queen and show “no evidence” of a formal vetting process around the appointment. The files release lands alongside continuing police interest in Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor; the BBC notes the contemporary political context of the cabinet-level interest in how the appointment was made. The Aston Villa Europa League victory bus parade in Birmingham — the headline counter-news image of the day — ran in parallel through the late-Thursday news cycle.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered a cost-of-living statement to the Commons today: a 10p increase in the tax-free mileage rate to 55p (backdated to April, the first rise in fifteen years), VAT on summer-attraction tickets cut to 5%, tariffs scrapped on 100 imported food items, free child bus travel through the summer holidays, and a £120 million package for the Stoke-on-Trent ceramics industry — politically targeted at the Labour-Reform Wigan-style battleground there. The supermarket food-price cap and energy-bill cap that had been floated were both quietly absent. The Independent’s David Maddox: this was “proof of life for a government which many think is dead”.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium must remain inside Iran, rather than being transferred abroad. Khamenei also said abandoning uranium enrichment would be “100% against the country’s national interest”. The directive directly rejects the central US negotiating demand and contradicts even the conditional dilution-and-send-to-Russia proposal Iran floated this week. Trump and Vance’s Tuesday optimism reads materially differently this evening; Brent eased further to $104.40 nonetheless.
- Iran is using the ceasefire to run a “mafia-esque protection racket” over the Strait of Hormuz, charging vessels without a bilateral agreement around $150,000 a transit to be “secured” against attacks by the Iranian navy itself. Sixteen vessels took Iran’s route through the strait in the past twenty-four hours. The normalisation strategy is designed to gradually rebuild near pre-war traffic flows before the European-led NATO escort framework can be activated in July — deliberately weakening the case for it.
GEO Geopolitical
Khamenei: Uranium Must Stay in Iran; Abandoning Enrichment “100% Against Interests”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium must remain inside Iran. Khamenei also said abandoning uranium enrichment would be “100 percent against the country’s national interest”. The directive directly rejects the central US demand — that Iran hand over its highly enriched uranium to the United States — and contradicts even the conditional proposal Iran floated this week to dilute some of the stockpile and send the rest to Russia with a right to “reclaim it”. Iran has separately warned it may enrich uranium to 90% purity (weapons-grade) if it faces another military attack.
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Iran “Mafia-Esque Protection Racket” over Hormuz; $150,000 Fee
Iran is using the ceasefire period to “normalize Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz” via a multi-tiered transit-fee scheme run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Russia and China sit at the top tier as strategic partners; India and Pakistan operate under negotiated bilateral agreements; other states are case-by-case; ships linked to Iranian adversaries are denied access; ships without a bilateral framework pay around $150,000 per transit. the fees as “part of a mafia-esque protection racket in which the vessels pay Iran so that the Iranian navy can ‘secure’ the vessels against an attack by the Iranian navy or Iranian shore-based missiles and drones”.
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US: Skywave Seized, Celestial Sea Boarded; 91 Vessels Redirected
The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that three US officials confirmed US forces seized the US-sanctioned, Iranian-linked oil tanker M/T Skywave (IMO 9328716) between 19 and 20 May after it transited the Strait of Malacca on 14 May. US Central Command separately reported on 20 May that US Marines boarded the Iranian-flagged oil tanker M/T Celestial Sea (IMO 9397030) on suspicion of attempting to reach an Iranian port; US forces released the vessel after searching it and directing it to change course. CENTCOM has now redirected 91 commercial vessels and disabled four since the 13 April blockade on Iranian ports began.
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Pakistan-Saudi Pact: 8,000 Troops, Jet Squadron, Air Defence Sent
On Tuesday that Pakistan has sent 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets and an air defence system to Saudi Arabia as part of the September 2025 mutual defence pact, citing three security officials and two government sources who described the force as “substantial” and “combat-ready”. The aircraft were sent in April; the other assets at an unspecified later date. The deployment is required to uphold the pact in the context of repeated Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia. Pakistan’s simultaneous mediation between Washington and Tehran, including Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi’s 20 May Tehran visit, demonstrates Islamabad’s political-influence positioning in the region.
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Hezbollah Prolonged Engagement with IDF at Haddatha; First Since Ceasefire
Hezbollah defended against an Israel Defence Forces ground assault on the village of Haddatha in the Bint Jbeil District of southern Lebanon on 19 and 20 May. Hezbollah used small arms, mortars, RPGs, anti-tank guided missiles and FPV drones to defend through two attacks, a seven-hour engagement on 19 May and a four-hour one on 20 May. Hezbollah claimed to have repelled the first attack but did not claim to have repelled the second; MTV Lebanon reported IDF units destroyed homes in Haddatha after the second engagement, suggesting that the IDF dislodged Hezbollah.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Reeves: 10p Mileage Rise to 55p; First Raise in 15 Years
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced in the Commons this morning a 10p per mile increase in the tax-free mileage rate, taking it from 45p to 55p, backdated to April 2026 (2026-27 tax year). The increase is the first since 2011, when George Osborne raised the rate from 40p to 45p. MoneySavingExpert quoted Martin Lewis describing it as a “really important change” for drivers; the Birmingham Mail calculated the average benefit at £120 per year. The mileage increase is, the Independent argues, “the biggest help in the measures” in today’s package — specifically aimed at the “white van man and woman” constituency that Sir Keir Starmer has been referencing.
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Reeves Package: VAT Cut on Attractions, 100 Food Tariffs Removed, £120m Ceramics
The wider Reeves cost-of-living package announced today, includes a VAT reduction from 20% to 5% on tickets for summer attractions (theme parks, zoos and museums); free bus travel for children over the summer holiday; the removal of import tariffs from 100 food items including biscuits and baked beans; a VAT cut on children’s meals; and a £120 million support package for the ceramics industry largely based in Stoke-on-Trent. The Stoke component is politically specific: Stoke was won by Boris Johnson’s Tories in 2019, taken back by Labour in 2024, and is now a Reform UK target. Ceramics is also important for the aerospace sector.
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“Proof of Life” for a Government “Many Think is Dead”
The Independent’s Political Editor David Maddox framed today’s Reeves announcement as “proof of life for a government which many think is dead”: “The context is that this is a government teetering on collapse. The prime minister could be replaced before the summer and his chancellor Ms Reeves will surely follow him out of the exit door.” The uncertainty, Maddox argues, “ties the hands of ministers in attempting to do anything significant” — so the package is “more about reminding people that Keir Starmer’s government is still alive and still trying to do something even if it is not much”. Reeves’s own defence is that “the fundamentals are right” and that the IMF has “upgraded the low forecast on growth”.
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Burnham (Yesterday): “100%” Understand Why People Want Starmer to Step Down
Andy Burnham’s first sit-down television interview since being confirmed as Labour’s Makerfield by-election candidate, given to ITV News’s Daniel Hewitt yesterday, continues to drive Thursday’s news cycle. Burnham said he “100%” understands why people want Sir Keir Starmer to step down: “They’re sending a message.” He confirmed that becoming an MP would be the “first step” on the path to a Labour leadership challenge. “I’ve indicated always in my role as mayor that one day I will seek to return to Westminster,” he said. The framing politely contradicts Lammy’s “back on the pitch” and Nandy’s “froth and nonsense” lines.
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Conservatives: Reeves Package “Sticking Plaster”; Mileage Welcomed
The Conservative response to today’s Reeves announcement has been to welcome the mileage rise and fuel duty extension while framing the wider package as a “sticking plaster” against the Iran-war inflation backdrop. The wider Conservative attack line — Kemi Badenoch’s yesterday-PMQs claim of credit for the fuel duty “U-turn”, and her reference to Labour MPs having voted to ban new British oil and gas licences — continues. Starmer’s Wednesday-PMQs “Eurovision/FA Cup” riposte remains the operative Number 10 framing of the Conservative leadership’s positioning.