IRGC Says Return to War “Unlikely”; Iran Internet Restored After 88 Days
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said today that a return to war with the United States is unlikely, signalling Tehran is positioning for the framework deal’s adoption. Iran’s internet connectivity was simultaneously restored to a large extent on Wednesday after 88 days of near-total isolation from international networks, internet monitor NetBlocks said — a development markets read as a tentative confidence-building measure. Iran continues to demand the release of $24 billion in frozen assets, with $12 billion released in the first phase of any deal and another $12 billion transferred within 60 days of signing.
A member of Iran’s parliamentary national security committee took the opposite tack on Wednesday, saying Tehran should make “maximum use” of the Strait of Hormuz because “the world” needs it, and called for changing the legal regime governing the waterway. The split between IRGC official messaging (return to war unlikely) and the parliamentary national-security committee (maximum-use framing) is the latest signal of Iranian internal division between the negotiation-acceptance faction and the hardline-leverage faction. Qatari officials have travelled to Tehran in recent days to discuss unfreezing the more than $6 billion in Iranian assets held by Qatar National Bank. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters spoke with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Wednesday and called for unimpeded freedom of navigation through Hormuz as a precondition for any lasting peace.