Iran’s Counterproposal Frontloads Demands; “Regime Believes It Is Winning”
Iran’s latest counterproposal frontloads its key demands on the withdrawal of “a US threat to Iran”, financial relief, and Iran’s “right” to manage the Strait of Hormuz, while attempting to delay discussion of Iran’s nuclear programme. The proposal indicates the Iranian regime believes it is winning the war and is negotiating from a position of strength. Iranian officials continue to emphasise Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz as the key sticking point. Iran has demanded an end to the US naval blockade and said negotiations will not proceed while the blockade remains in place.
One of Iran’s primary objectives in the current negotiations is to secure its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — an objective more important to Tehran than the fee revenue from merchant vessels. Tehran may be willing to “trade” Hormuz sovereignty for major gains on the nuclear programme, sanctions relief, the release of frozen funds, or a large-scale US withdrawal from the region. All of these “trades” would still be bad from a US perspective and accomplish other key Iranian strategic objectives. US and world vital interests require denying Iran control of the strait by negotiations or by force. Iran likely sees two paths to control: official recognition through an agreement, or maintaining the current situation by firing missiles or drones at ships that fail to comply with Iranian transit demands.