Iran “Stalling” to Normalise Hormuz Control; “Deal or Force” the Binary Choice
One of Iran’s primary negotiating objectives is to secure sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — an objective more important to Tehran than fee revenue from merchant vessels. Iran is likely stalling and delaying the negotiations process precisely because the protraction of the current situation serves Iran’s interests by letting Tehran normalise its de facto control of transit through the strait. The international community cannot “wait out” Iran’s control. The strait will not return to normal without either a deal that ends Iranian control or a US-led military operation that forces the strait open. Recognition of Iranian claims of sovereignty is both unacceptable and fails to accomplish a return to normal.
Iran likely sees two paths to controlling the strait. First, Iranian control could be officially recognised by the United States through an agreement. Other countries would probably oppose such recognition, but changing the new status quo would be extremely challenging. Second, Iran could maintain the current situation by firing missiles or drones (or credibly threatening to do so) at ships that fail to heed Iranian demands related to transiting the strait. Very few countries — and perhaps none — will approve of Iranian threats, but stopping Iranian coercion will require the use of force or an agreement that formally ends Iranian efforts to assert sovereignty over the strait. If negotiations do not lead rapidly to an agreement to reopen the strait under the previous, internationally recognised transit scheme, it will unfortunately be necessary to resort to force.