Iran “Mafia-Esque Protection Racket”; $150,000 Per-Transit Fee
The Institute for the Study of War continues to assess that Iran is using the ceasefire to “normalize Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz” via a multi-tiered transit-fee scheme run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Russia and China sit at the top tier as strategic partners; India and Pakistan operate under negotiated bilateral agreements; other states are case-by-case; vessels linked to Iranian adversaries are denied access; ships without a bilateral framework pay approximately $150,000 per transit. the fees as “part of a mafia-esque protection racket in which the vessels pay Iran so that the Iranian navy can ‘secure’ the vessels against an attack by the Iranian navy or Iranian shore-based missiles and drones”.
Sixteen vessels took Iran’s route through the strait in the twenty-four hours to 2pm ET 20 May — including two Chinese and Hong Kong-flagged VLCCs, a South Korean-flagged VLCC, a Turkish-owned vessel exiting and an Indian-flagged vessel entering. The Wall Street Journal separately reported on Tuesday that US forces seized the Iran-linked oil tanker M/T Skywave between 19 and 20 May; US Marines also boarded the Iranian-flagged tanker M/T Celestial Sea on 20 May before releasing it. The IRGC threatened on 20 May to expand any renewed war “far beyond the region” — capabilities listed include terror attacks abroad, Bab el-Mandeb shipping disruption via the Houthis, and intermediate-range ballistic missile strikes (Iran demonstrated nascent 4,000km range against Diego Garcia in March). CENTCOM has now redirected 91 vessels and disabled four since the 13 April blockade began.