Iran “Mafia-Esque Protection Racket” over Hormuz; $150,000 Fee
Iran is using the ceasefire period to “normalize Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz” via a multi-tiered transit-fee scheme run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Russia and China sit at the top tier as strategic partners; India and Pakistan operate under negotiated bilateral agreements; other states are case-by-case; ships linked to Iranian adversaries are denied access; ships without a bilateral framework pay around $150,000 per transit. the fees as “part of a mafia-esque protection racket in which the vessels pay Iran so that the Iranian navy can ‘secure’ the vessels against an attack by the Iranian navy or Iranian shore-based missiles and drones”.
16 vessels taking Iran’s route through the strait between 2pm ET 19 May and 2pm ET 20 May, including two Chinese and Hong Kong-flagged VLCCs, a South Korean-flagged VLCC, a Turkish-owned vessel exiting and an Indian-flagged vessel entering. The Iraqi Government, under former PM Mohammad Shia al Sudani, reportedly reached an ad hoc agreement with Iran to facilitate the Greek-owned, Maltese-flagged Very Large Crude Carrier Agios Fanourios I on 10 May. The strategic objective of the normalisation effort, ISW assesses, is to gradually return strait traffic to near pre-war levels before the European-led NATO escort framework can be activated in July — weakening the political case for mobilising US allies to reopen the strait. The post-war “security” deployment that the UK and France have floated, ISW judges, would face Iranian forceful resistance if the war ends with official or de facto recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the strait.