Morning Briefing: Wednesday 20 May 2026
- Two Chinese supertankers exited the Strait of Hormuz this morning carrying around four million barrels of crude. Trump told reporters yesterday he had been “an hour away” from ordering the cancelled strike; Vice President JD Vance said: “We’re in a pretty good spot here.” Brent has fallen to $106.40 (-0.8%) and gilt yields have softened further; the immediate market read is that the deal-or-strike binary is starting to resolve on the deal side.
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves is today pressuring UK supermarkets to cap grocery prices to limit Iran-war inflation; the Guardian notes the SNP is pledging to use devolved public health powers to fix prices on 20-50 items in Scotland. Today’s PMQs will run head-to-head against the price-cap announcement and Burnham’s post-confirmation press round. The food inflation question is now the connective tissue between the Iran war and UK domestic politics; the autumn Budget envelope tightens further if cap mechanics are added on top of yesterday’s £102.7bn HS2 confirmation.
- Iran is now storing oil on ten aging tankers around Kharg Island and Chabahar — 42 million barrels in floating storage (a 65% jump since the war began per Kpler), 64% onshore storage capacity (Kayrros), leaving only a few weeks of production space. Some NATO countries are reportedly considering escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz beginning in early July if Iran’s blockade continues. The economic squeeze on Iran is real and accelerating — but ISW cautions that Iranian leaders “care little for the economic well-being of the Iranian people beyond the impact… on regime stability”.
Chinese Tankers Exit Hormuz with 4m Barrels; Trump-Vance Talk Up Deal
Two Chinese supertankers, Yuan Gui Yang and Ocean Lily, exited the Strait of Hormuz this morning carrying around four million barrels of Iraqi crude citing LSEG and Kpler data, brightening hopes that the US-Israeli conflict with Iran may s…
Trump: “An Hour Away” from Strike; Iran Leaders “Begging for a Deal”
President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday that he had been “an hour away from making the decision to go today” on the cancelled US strike against Iran, before the joint intervention of the Qatari Emir, the Saudi C…
Iran Storing Oil on Aging Tankers; 42m Barrels Around Kharg, Chabahar
Iran has expanded its oil storage by reusing ten aging tankers to hold crude oil clustered around Kharg Island and Chabahar Port, citing United Against Nuclear Iran and the Financial Times. Maritime intelligence firm Kpler estimates Iran h…
NATO Considers Hormuz Ship Escort Plan from Early July
A senior NATO official said on 19 May that some NATO countries support a plan to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz beginning in early July if Iran’s blockade continues. One NATO diplomat said several NATO countries support the idea…
Iran Studied US Fighter-Jet Flight Patterns; Russia Likely Assisted
The New York Times, citing a US military official, reports that Iranian military commanders studied the flight patterns of US fighter jets and bombers, likely ahead of and throughout the recent war. The US official said the downing of a US…
Reeves Urges Supermarkets to Cap Food Prices; SNP Pledges Devolved Caps
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is today pressuring UK supermarkets to cap food prices in an attempt to limit the inflation unleashed by the Iran war; the Guardian frames the announcement as supermarkets being “urged to consider voluntary price c…
Burnham Confirmed as Labour’s Makerfield Candidate; 18 June Vote
Andy Burnham was confirmed yesterday as Labour’s candidate for the 18 June Makerfield by-election after the party’s National Executive Committee rubber-stamped his selection. No other candidates had been shortlisted. Reform UK announced lo…
HS2: £87.7-£102.7bn Cost Confirmed; Opening 2036-2039
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander confirmed in the Commons yesterday that HS2 will cost between £87.7 billion and £102.7 billion in 2025 prices — roughly double the previous government’s figure in 2019 terms — and that the first trains w…
Reform’s Kenyon: “Stepping Stone” Charge vs Burnham’s “Cambridge” Bio
Reform UK’s newly-unveiled Makerfield candidate Robert Kenyon — local plumber, army reservist, former NHS specialist technician — accused Andy Burnham of treating Makerfield as a “stepping stone”. Kenyon attacked “career politicians… parac…
Lammy: Raise Age of Criminal Responsibility 10 to 14?
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy is considering raising the age of criminal responsibility in England and Wales from 10 to as high as 14, The Times reported yesterday. The government is “eyeing” Scotland’s threshold, under which children…