Evening Briefing: Monday 18 May 2026
- Pakistan handed Washington a revised Iranian proposal for ending the war today, but Trump still meets his national security advisers tomorrow to discuss options for resuming military action. Defence Minister Israel Katz is on the record waiting for the “green light from the United States”; the Israeli airstrike on Baalbeck overnight killed a Palestinian Islamic Jihad commander as Lebanon’s civilian death toll closes on 3,000. Markets read this as escalation risk rising, not falling: Brent closed at $110.20, gilt yields softened modestly after the UK political risk premium came off, and sterling firmed to $1.3290.
- Sir Keir Starmer told broadcasters today that he is “not going to” set a departure timetable and will “not walk away” from Number 10. Andy Burnham used a Leeds conference speech to retreat further on the EU: “I am not proposing that the UK considers rejoining the EU… I respect the decision that was made at the referendum.” The leadership question is now formally locked in: Starmer stays through Makerfield; the Brexit question is parked; the contest, when and if it comes, will be fought on public ownership and the “serious rewiring” Burnham promised today, not on EU membership.
- Ukraine’s 16-17 May strike series — confirmed by the Institute for the Study of War today — hit the Angstrem semiconductor plant, the Moscow Oil Refinery, two oil pumping stations and a runway at Sheremetyevo, with 51 flights diverted. Russian milbloggers are openly calling for retaliation with tactical nuclear weapons; the Kremlin’s public response has been muted. The Defence Minister Andrei Belousov congratulated units for the claimed seizure of Borova despite ISW assessing the area is still contested. The implication for European supply chains is that long-range strike escalation now spans both the Iran and Russia theatres simultaneously.
Pakistan Hands US Revised Iranian Proposal; “We Don’t Have Much Time”
Pakistan today shared with the United States a revised proposal from Iran to end the war in the Middle East, a Pakistani source said on Monday, warning that the two sides “don’t have much time” to narrow their differences. Iranian Foreign…
Israel Kills Palestinian Islamic Jihad Commander in Baalbeck Strike
An Israeli airstrike near the eastern Lebanese city of Baalbeck overnight killed a commander of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad militant group, Wael Mahmoud Abd al-Halim, along with his daughter, Lebanese security sources said. The Israeli m…
Saudi Arabia Intercepts Three Drones from Iraqi Airspace; Iran “Mechanism” for Strait
Saudi Arabia said on Sunday it had intercepted three drones that entered the kingdom from Iraqi airspace, alongside the Barakah strike on the UAE. Riyadh warned it would take the “necessary operational measures” to respond to any attempt t…
Ukraine Hit Angstrem, Moscow Oil Refinery, Two Pumping Stations; Sheremetyevo Runway Fire
The Institute for the Study of War’s 17 May Russian campaign assessment confirms that Ukrainian forces struck the Angstrem Semiconductor Plant at the Elma Technopark in Zelenograd, northwest of Moscow City — a plant producing microelectron…
Pakistan Deploys Jet Squadron, Thousands of Troops to Saudi Arabia
Exclusively today that Pakistan has deployed a jet squadron and thousands of troops to Saudi Arabia in support of Riyadh during the Iran war, in the most concrete signal yet that the Pakistani mediation track between Washington and Tehran…
Starmer: “I am Not Going to Walk Away”; No Timetable Even if Burnham Wins
Sir Keir Starmer told broadcasters this afternoon that he would not set out a timetable for his departure even if Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election: “I’m not going to do that.” The Prime Minister repeated that he would “not walk…
Burnham in Leeds: “I Respect Brexit”; Not Proposing EU Rejoin
Andy Burnham used a conference speech in Leeds today to pledge not to “re-run” Brexit arguments and to formally state that he is not proposing the UK rejoins the European Union. “My view is that Brexit has been damaging, but I also believe…
Burnham: “Serious Rewiring”, Transfer Money from “Bloated National State”
In the same Leeds speech, Burnham set out the affirmative case for what a Burnham-led Labour Party would do: a transfer of money and resources from “a bloated national state” to “a malnourished local one”. “We have hollowed out councils an…
Lammy on Sky: “No Timetable”; Time for Labour to Get “Back on the Pitch”
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy said on Monday morning that “there will be no timetable for departure” for the Prime Minister, and went on to tell the BBC that it was time for the Labour Party to “get back on the pitch after days of intr…
Gilts Stabilise After Cabinet Voices Support for Starmer
This afternoon that UK gilts stabilised through Monday after the cabinet coalesced publicly behind Sir Keir Starmer, with the ten-year gilt yield easing modestly from Friday’s 5.18% close. The piece frames the political risk premium as hav…