Morning Briefing: Saturday 16 May 2026
- The fragile Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was extended by 45 days at the conclusion of two days of US-mediated talks in Washington, with new political and security tracks scheduled for early June and 29 May. Petrol forecourt prices are unlikely to ease meaningfully until the Iran track produces a parallel breakthrough; oil rose roughly 2% to around $108 a barrel on Friday.
- UK borrowing costs closed Friday at levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis: ten-year gilts at 5.18%, thirty-year at 5.85% (the highest this century); sterling fell to a five-week low of $1.33, its biggest weekly drop against the dollar since November 2024. Mortgage and fixed-rate household borrowing costs are likely to follow if the political risk premium proves persistent.
- Andy Burnham’s pathway to challenging the Prime Minister cleared its first hurdle when Labour’s National Executive Committee approved his entry into the Makerfield selection process; the by-election is expected on 18 June. A Survation poll modelled by The Guardian puts Burnham on 45% to Reform’s 43% in Makerfield, against 27% for any other Labour candidate.
Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Extended 45 Days at Washington Talks
Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 45-day extension of the ceasefire that was due to expire on Sunday, the US State Department announced on Friday at the conclusion of two days of talks in Washington. State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott…
Six Killed, Three Paramedics, in Israeli Strike on Harouf
At least six people were killed and 22 wounded in an Israeli strike on a civil defence centre in the town of Harouf in southern Lebanon late on Friday, the Lebanese state news agency reported early on Saturday. The dead included three para…
Araghchi: “Lack of Trust” Biggest Obstacle; Trump Weighs Chinese Refinery Sanctions
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters in New Delhi that “a lack of trust” remains the biggest obstacle in negotiations to end the war with the United States, the Associated Press reported. President Trump told reporters ab…
Putin Spinning Strained Economic Data as Strikes on Ukraine Continue
The Institute for the Study of War’s Friday assessment opens with the judgment that “Russian President Vladimir Putin is positively portraying data about Russia’s economic performance that actually shows a strained economy.” The assessment…
China’s Iran Statement: “Should Never Have Happened, Has No Reason To Continue”
China’s foreign ministry issued an unusually direct statement of frustration with the Iran war at the close of President Xi Jinping’s summit with President Trump in Beijing: “This conflict, which should never have happened, has no reason t…
NEC Approves Burnham for Makerfield Selection; Endorsement 21 May
Labour’s National Executive Committee on Friday approved Andy Burnham’s entry into the candidate selection process for the Makerfield by-election. NEC officers agreed by email to grant a waiver and did not wait for Burnham’s formal applica…
Gilts Highest This Century; Sterling at 5-Week Low Against Dollar
UK ten-year gilt yields rose 18 basis points to 5.18% on Friday, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, and thirty-year yields rose 19 basis points to 5.85%, the highest this century, according to The Times. Sterling fell another 0.6…
Burnham Team Targets PM by Autumn Conference; Survation Poll Favours Him
Andy Burnham’s supporters say he will push to become Prime Minister in time to address Labour’s autumn conference in Liverpool, The Guardian reported. Analysis by Survation shared with the newspaper suggests that with Burnham as the candid…
Streeting Backs Burnham: “Best Players on the Pitch”
Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting publicly backed Andy Burnham’s by-election bid on Friday, telling reporters that Labour needs “our best players on the pitch. There is no doubt that Andy Burnham is one of them.” The endorsement is the…
Starmer Expected to Approve £18bn Defence Boost Next Week
The Prime Minister is expected to approve an £18 billion increase in defence spending as early as next week, according to The Times reporting cited by The Guardian. The move is described as part of Sir Keir Starmer’s political-survival str…