Iran Memo Still Under Tehran Review; No Formal Response Yet Delivered
Iran has not yet delivered its formal response to the one-page memo via Pakistani mediators, four days after Trump’s pause on the Project Freedom Hormuz operation. The text would lift the competing blockades within 30 days of signing, freeze Iranian uranium enrichment for 12 years and unfreeze billions in frozen Iranian assets. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said today the response is “imminent” but provided no timeline. The IAEA verification mechanism remains the chief sticking point.
A four-day delay between “closing in” and a formal Iranian response is the diplomatic story: Tehran is using the review window to extract IAEA-access concessions, while Washington holds the Hormuz pause as conditional leverage. The Pakistani “imminent” framing is itself useful: it preserves momentum without committing either side to a deadline. The likely path remains a Saudi-hosted signing ceremony if the memo lands; the alternative is a public Iranian rejection that returns Brent above $115 within a session. Markets are pricing the higher-probability outcome but staying neutral on timing.