Brent Holds $100–103 Range; WTI Settles at $95
Brent crude settled Friday at $101.05, holding the $100–103 range it has occupied since Wednesday’s 7.83% collapse. WTI closed at $95.10. Implied options markets put the probability of a memo signing within ten days at around 60% — broadly unchanged through the week. Gold settled at $4,795, off Tuesday’s record high. The VIX closed at 27.2, four points below mid-week peaks. Iran’s formal response is expected to be the next material catalyst.
A flat oil week in the wake of a 7.83% one-day move confirms market consensus that some form of de-escalation is more likely than not, but is not yet locked in. Producers are unhedged for sustained sub-$100 Brent; OPEC+ compliance has weakened through April and any signing risks an immediate price war on top of the diplomatic one. The asymmetric scenarios are wide: a memo signing pulls Brent towards $90 within a session, while a breakdown returns it above $115 with credible re-escalation. Monday’s open is the first real-time test of the discount window.