Labour on Course to Lose Wales for First Time in Over a Century
Labour is on course to fail to win the most seats in a Wales-wide election for the first time in more than 100 years, with Plaid Cymru on track to top the Senedd poll. Reform UK has won every council it stood candidates in across north Wales. The result completes a structural realignment of Welsh politics that began with the 2024 general election and has accelerated through the cost-of-living period. Counting in several Welsh authorities continues into Friday afternoon.
Labour’s Welsh dominance dates from 1922 and has survived every modern political shock until now. Plaid topping the Senedd poll changes the constitutional centre of gravity in Cardiff: a Plaid-led administration would push the independence question back onto the political agenda within a year. The Reform sweep of north Wales mirrors the party’s industrial-belt advances in northern England, suggesting the geographic theory of British politics — safe Labour heartlands — is now obsolete in current form. Welsh fiscal devolution arrangements may need formal review under any Plaid administration.