Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- US Central Command launched overnight strikes against Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps mine-laying boats in the Strait of Hormuz and a surface-to-air missile site at Bandar Abbas, threatening the fragile ceasefire even as Iranian negotiators arrived in Doha for fresh talks. CENTCOM spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins said American forces “conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces”. Targets “included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines”. Two IRGC vessels were eliminated. US officials said the strikes do not signal the collapse of the framework deal.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and the central bank chief travelled to Doha overnight for fresh talks with Qatar’s prime minister and US counterparts on frozen financial assets and the wider deal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in Jaipur the Strait of Hormuz has to be open “one way or the other”. “There were some talks going on in Qatar today, so we’ll see if we can make progress. I think it’s a lot of talking back and forth going on about specific language in the initial document, so it’ll take a few days,” Rubio told reporters. President Donald Trump on Monday: “He’s either going to make a good deal or no deal.”
- The FTSE 100 opened up 0.8% at 10,546 this morning, playing catch-up after the Spring Bank Holiday as London investors absorbed Monday’s oil-price moves. Brent crude was at $98.21 a barrel, up 0.7% on Monday’s lows but down sharply from Friday’s $104.22 close. Sterling firmed to $1.3478 against the dollar, up from Friday’s $1.3441. Oil majors led the FTSE gains — BP up 2.7%, Shell up 2.0% — with Kingfisher, Sunbelt Rentals and Endeavour Mining also on the leaderboard. Bond markets are pricing in lower Bank of England rates as the imported-inflation pressure eases.
GEO Geopolitical
CENTCOM Strikes IRGC Mine-Laying Boats and Bandar Abbas SAM Site Overnight
US Central Command spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins said American forces “conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces”. The targets “included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines”. Two Iranian boats were caught laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a senior US official said; the US military eliminated both IRGC vessels and also struck a surface-to-air missile site in Bandar Abbas that Hawkins said was targeting US warplanes. “US Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire,” Hawkins said.
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Iran Delegation in Doha for Fresh Talks — Foreign Minister, Parliament Speaker, Central Bank Chief
Iran sent a senior negotiating delegation to Doha overnight that includes Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and the central bank chief, for fresh talks with Qatar’s prime minister and US counterparts. The Doha track is focused on frozen Iranian financial assets and the wider memorandum-of-understanding architecture. The strikes overnight in southern Iran came as the delegation arrived — framing the talks against a backdrop of continued US military leverage on the Hormuz mine-laying threat.
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Rubio in Jaipur — Hormuz Must Be Open “One Way Or The Other”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Jaipur, during a visit to India, that the Strait of Hormuz must be open “one way or the other” following the overnight strikes. “There were some talks going on in Qatar today, so we’ll see if we can make progress. I think it’s a lot of talking back and forth going on about specific language in the initial document, so it’ll take a few days,” Rubio said. President Donald Trump told reporters on Monday: “The president’s expressed his desire to make it. He’s either going to make a good deal or no deal.”
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Iran “Stalling” to Normalise Hormuz Control; “Deal or Force” Binary Holds
One of Iran’s primary negotiating objectives is to secure sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — an objective more important to Tehran than fee revenue from merchant vessels. Iran is likely stalling and delaying the negotiations process deliberately, because the protraction of the current situation serves Iran’s interests by normalising its de facto control of transit through the strait. The strait will not return to normal without either a deal that ends Iranian control or a US-led military operation that forces the strait open. Recognition of Iranian claims of sovereignty is both unacceptable and fails to accomplish a return to normal. The binary the international community now faces is “deal or force”.
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Baghaei — “Large Portion” of Issues Resolved, Signing Still Not Imminent
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said on Monday that conclusions have been reached on a large portion of issues, but “to say that this means the signing of an agreement is imminent — no one can make such a claim”. Baghaei said the memorandum of understanding does not include specifics about the management of the Strait of Hormuz and that any fees Iran charges “will not be presented as tolls”. IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency said the United States is “still obstructing” parts of the potential deal, including Tehran’s demand for the release of frozen funds.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
FTSE 100 Opens Up 0.8% Post-Bank-Holiday; Oil Majors Lead, Sterling at $1.3478
The FTSE 100 opened up 79 points at 10,546 by 08:12 BST, playing catch-up after the Spring Bank Holiday closure on Monday. Oil majors led the gains: BP rose 2.7% after reporting first-quarter profit that exceeded expectations on stronger oil prices; Shell climbed 2.0%. Kingfisher, Sunbelt Rentals, Endeavour Mining and Glencore were also on the leaderboard. Melrose, Auto Trader, Vodafone and BP-laggards lagged. Brent crude was at $98.21 a barrel, up 0.7% on Monday’s lows but down sharply from Friday’s $104.22 close. Sterling firmed to $1.3478 against the dollar.
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Carns Visits RFA Lyme Bay in Gibraltar — UK-France Mine-Clearing Operation Stands Ready
Armed Forces Minister Al Carns took a small group of reporters to visit the RFA Lyme Bay at Gibraltar yesterday as it prepares for a possible international operation, led by the United Kingdom and France, to secure the Strait of Hormuz. The amphibious landing vessel was being loaded with ammunition and mine-hunting sea drones equipped with sonar. Hundreds of British sailors are waiting to be deployed for a mine-clearing mission — only once a peace agreement is reached. Cmdr Gemma Britton, in charge of the Royal Navy’s Mine and Threat Exploitation Group, said Iran could have a “huge” variety of mines throughout the strait — rocket-propelled, cabled, or sea-bed mines triggered by sound, movement or light.
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Streeting “Won’t Fight Burnham” if Makerfield Wins; Ten-Week Coronation Timetable Emerges
Wes Streeting is likely to abandon his bid for the Labour leadership and fall in behind Andy Burnham if the Greater Manchester mayor wins the Makerfield by-election, senior allies believe. Figures organising for the former health secretary said there is an emerging feeling that “no one can beat Andy” if Burnham makes it back to parliament and launches a challenge against Sir Keir Starmer. A YouGov poll of Labour members shows Burnham beating Streeting 80% to 10% in a potential leadership race that does not involve Starmer. Those closest to Streeting are pushing for a “ten-week timetable” — a four-week by-election campaign followed by a six-week Labour leadership contest.
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Reeves Rearguard Holds — “Chancellor Question Almost as Important as PM”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s backbench-lobbying push continues this week. Reeves has told friends she would like to stay in the chancellorship even under a new prime minister, and her allies are urging MPs to back her if Sir Keir Starmer is replaced later this year. One Labour MP close to the chancellor: “The biggest fear for the bond markets and the unions is Ed Miliband. I am concerned that we may lose everything if a new leader sacrifices the chancellor for promises and new alliances they are currently forging with MPs who fancy the job for themselves.” The chancellor question is now “almost as important as that for prime minister”.
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Burnham Campaign Continues Through Bank Holiday Weekend; Kenyon Test Sharpens
Andy Burnham’s Makerfield campaign continued through the Spring Bank Holiday weekend, with the Greater Manchester mayor positioning himself as the change candidate against both Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon and the cabinet-supported Starmer leadership. Kenyon, a local plumber and army reservist who came within 5,399 votes of Josh Simons in the 2024 general election, has framed the contest as “Plucky Plumber” versus “Open Borders Burnham”. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has called the by-election a “David versus Goliath battle” and has thrown senior Reform UK figures into the constituency for the four-week campaign sprint to 18 June.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Brent crude crashed below $100 a barrel for the first time since 7 May, settling at $97.53 in thin holiday trade — down 5.8% on the day — as oil markets priced in the prospect that an Iran-US deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz could be announced this week. President Donald Trump said in an early Memorial Day Truth Social post: his administration will either reach “a great and meaningful” deal with Iran “or there will be no deal”. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said yesterday an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be announced as soon as today. Gold rose 1% as the dollar softened.
- Iran continues to push back on the US framing. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said today the memorandum of understanding does not include specifics about the management of the Strait of Hormuz and that any fees Iran charges “will not be presented as tolls”. The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency said the United States “is still obstructing” parts of the potential deal, including Tehran’s demand for the release of frozen funds. Iran has acknowledged agreement on many points but says the signing of a deal is not imminent.
- UK and US markets were closed today for the Spring Bank Holiday and Memorial Day, leaving global trade thin and volatility high. The Brent move — if it holds — would translate into materially lower UK pump prices in the coming weeks: Brent at $97 is roughly 23% below the post-war peak of $126. Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s cost-of-living package this week — cancelling a planned 5p rise in fuel duty, VAT cut from 20% to 5% on summer attraction tickets, removal of import tariffs from 100 food items, and a £120 million ceramics support package — would compound the relief if the oil-price move proves durable.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump — “Great and Meaningful” Deal “Or There Will Be No Deal”
President Donald Trump said in an early Memorial Day Truth Social post that his administration will either reach “a great and meaningful” deal with Iran to end the war, “or there will be no deal”. The post hardened the tone of yesterday’s “not to rush” framing into a binary: a signed agreement on US terms or no agreement at all. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said yesterday an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be announced as soon as today — though the US administration also confirmed the signing of any deal is not imminent.
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Brent Crashes Below $100 — 5.8% Drop on Iran-Deal Optimism, Thin Holiday Trade
Brent crude futures dropped $6.01, or 5.8%, to $97.53 a barrel by 11:25 GMT, the lowest level since 7 May. West Texas Intermediate fell 5.9% to $90.95. Both contracts hit lows not seen in over two weeks as traders unwound the war-risk premium linked to the Strait of Hormuz. UK and US markets were closed for the Spring Bank Holiday and Memorial Day, leaving trade thinner and volatility higher than usual. Gold prices jumped 1% as the dollar softened. Traders are weighing how much Middle East supply shock remains priced in if talks make material progress this week.
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Baghaei — MoU Does Not Include Hormuz Specifics; Fees “Not Presented As Tolls”
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said today that the memorandum of understanding under negotiation does not include specifics about the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Baghaei added that any fees Iran charges “will not be presented as tolls”. The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency said the United States “is still obstructing” parts of the potential deal, including Tehran’s demand for the release of frozen funds. Iran has acknowledged agreement with the United States on many points but says the signing of a deal is not imminent — and that the proposal under discussion does not include immediate concessions on the nuclear issue.
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Three-Stage Architecture Holds — Hormuz First, Sanctions Later, 60-Day Nuclear Window
The proposed three-stage framework remains the operational template: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement — which can be extended to 60 days for nuclear-programme talks. Under the emerging agreement, the Strait of Hormuz would gradually reopen in parallel with the US ending its blockade of Iranian ports. The US would allow Iran to sell oil through sanctions waivers, with sanctions relief and the release of Iran’s frozen funds negotiated during the 60-day period. Sanctions relief is contingent on the strait being fully functional, not just declared open.
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Iran “Stalling” Deliberately to Normalise Hormuz Control; “Deal or Force” Remains the Binary
One of Iran’s primary negotiating objectives is to secure sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — an objective more important to Tehran than the fee revenue from merchant vessels. Iran is likely stalling and delaying the negotiations process deliberately, because the protraction of the current situation serves Iran’s interests by normalising its de facto control of transit through the strait. The strait will not return to normal without either a deal that ends Iranian control or a US-led military operation that forces the strait open. Recognition of Iranian claims of sovereignty is both unacceptable and fails to accomplish a return to normal. The binary the international community now faces is “deal or force”.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
UK Pump-Price Relief in Prospect as Brent Falls Below $100 on Bank Holiday
If Brent crude’s 5.8% Monday drop below $100 holds, UK pump prices are likely to fall materially in the coming weeks. Petrol and diesel prices typically lag Brent moves by 10-14 days through wholesale and retail margins; a sustained Brent at $97 would translate into pump prices roughly 8-12 pence per litre lower than the post-war peak. Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s cost-of-living package — including the cancellation of a planned 5p rise in fuel duty — would compound the relief if the oil-price move proves durable. UK markets were closed today for the Spring Bank Holiday; the FTSE 100 reopens Tuesday with the question of how much oil-price relief is already in the price.
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Jones’s “Fantasy Politics” Warning Holds Through Bank Holiday Weekend
Senior Starmer ally Darren Jones, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, warned Labour against playing “fantasy politics” on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg yesterday: there is no “magic answer” to the country’s problems and “Britain is poorer and weaker than it needs to be”. Jones said Andy Burnham is “a brilliant politician” and he would campaign for him in Makerfield. The framing held through the Monday bank-holiday news cycle as the dominant cabinet-side line on the leadership question. Jones added: “Irrespective of individual ambitions from any of my colleagues, the big questions the country faces are still the big questions the country faces.”
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Alan Johnson — Burnham “Would Have To Call Snap General Election”
Former Home Secretary Alan Johnson said yesterday that Labour MPs would be “daft” if they backed a leadership bid by Andy Burnham. Johnson told Radio 4’s Broadcasting House: “Absolutely no case for Keir Starmer to step down.” Asked whether Burnham should be Prime Minister, Johnson said: “Absolutely not.” Johnson suggested Burnham would have to call a snap general election if he became Prime Minister — a mandate-renewal mechanism that would be the operational test of whether a Burnham premiership could survive its own elevation. The framing has been picked up across the Monday papers and continues to anchor the cabinet-side defensive argument against a leadership transition.
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Streeting’s Substantive Policy Spine — Wealth Tax + Sure Start + Planning Reforms
Wes Streeting has set out a policy platform combining a wealth tax to fund a return of the New Labour-era Sure Start programme, and planning reforms to fund council homes to prevent children growing up in temporary accommodation. The Streeting platform now competes substantively with Burnham’s constitutional-reform-plus-NHS positioning for the same Tribune-Group-adjacent soft-left base. Streeting told reporters on Friday he had “the numbers including ministers” to launch a leadership bid against Sir Keir Starmer but held off “to give Andy Burnham the chance” to fight the Makerfield by-election.
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Reeves Cost-of-Living Package Starts to Bite as Brent Drops
Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s cost-of-living package this week — the cancellation of a planned 5p rise in fuel duty, free bus travel for children over the summer holiday, a VAT reduction from 20% to 5% on tickets for summer attractions (theme parks, zoos and museums), the removal of import tariffs from 100 food items including biscuits and baked beans, a VAT cut on children’s meals, and a £120 million support package for the ceramics industry — provides the Treasury-side answer to the political-economy challenge that has dogged Labour since the Iran war began on 28 February. Friends of Reeves believe there is a world in which she survives the transition to a Burnham premiership precisely because it would reassure the markets.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- President Donald Trump tempered Saturday’s “largely negotiated” framing on Sunday, posting on Truth Social that he had told US representatives “not to rush into a deal” with Iran. “Time is on our side. The Blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.” A senior Trump administration official told reporters yesterday an agreement would not be signed Sunday, that Iran had agreed “in principle” to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade, and to dispose of Tehran’s highly enriched uranium — though there was no immediate Iranian confirmation of what “in principle” means.
- The proposed framework now sequences first: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US naval blockade. Sanctions relief and the release of Iran’s frozen funds happen only after the strait reopens and is fully functioning, US officials said. A 60-day window follows for nuclear-programme negotiations, including Iran’s pledged commitment to never pursue a nuclear weapon and to enter negotiations on giving up its highly enriched uranium stockpile while pausing new enrichment. Brent settled at $102.30 at Friday’s close; London opens this morning with the “reached, certified, and signed” framing as the dominant variable for European energy and gilt pricing.
- Senior Starmer ally Darren Jones, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, warned Labour against “fantasy politics” on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg yesterday: there is no “magic answer” to the country’s problems and “Britain is poorer and weaker than it needs to be”. Former Home Secretary Alan Johnson said Labour MPs would be “daft” to back an Andy Burnham leadership bid and that Burnham would have to call a snap general election if he became Prime Minister; Johnson said there is “absolutely no case for Keir Starmer to step down”. The Makerfield by-election is 18 June.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump — “No Rush”, “Time On Our Side”; Blockade Stays Until Signed
President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday: “I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side.” He added: “The Blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed… Both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes!” The post tempered Saturday’s “largely negotiated” framing by 24 hours and put the US naval blockade of Iranian ports back at the centre of the leverage calculation. Trump separately said: “If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one… So don’t listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about.”
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Senior US Official — Iran Agreed “In Principle”; Hormuz First, Uranium Later
A senior Trump administration official told reporters on Sunday an agreement with Iran would not be signed yesterday because the Iranian system “did not move fast enough”. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said Iran had agreed “in principle” to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the United States lifting its naval blockade, and to dispose of Tehran’s highly enriched uranium. There was no immediate Iranian confirmation or elaboration on what “in principle” meant. Washington envisions first re-opening the strait and lifting the US naval blockade; negotiating the details of the nuclear measures would take more time.
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Sanctions Relief, Frozen-Funds Release Only After Hormuz Fully Functions
The unfreezing of Iranian assets will occur only once the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, a senior US administration official said yesterday. Sanctions imposed on Iran will only be lifted once the strait is open and fully functioning again. The conditional sequencing — Hormuz first, then everything else — is the operational architecture of the proposed memorandum of understanding. Iran has committed not to pursue a nuclear weapon and would enter negotiations on giving up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and pausing any new enrichment. Multiple Iranian outlets reported on Sunday that the strait would remain under Iranian supervision over a 30-day period, with shipping returning to pre-war levels.
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Five Unresolved Issues; Iran Rejects Efforts to Defer Core Demands
IRGC-affiliated reporting has identified frozen assets, sanctions relief, the US naval blockade, Lebanon, and the Strait of Hormuz as the main unresolved issues — every issue in the first stage of the proposed agreement, before talks on the nuclear programme begin. Mediators appear to be trying to preserve momentum by sequencing the unresolved issues and developing technical arrangements for the strait, but Iranian reporting indicates Iran has rejected efforts to defer its core demands. The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency said differences remain over “one or two clauses” and a source said there would be no final understanding if the US continued to “create obstacles”.
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Iran “Stalling” to Normalise Hormuz Control; “Deal or Force” the Binary
Iran is likely stalling and delaying the negotiations process precisely because the protraction of the current situation serves Iran’s interests by normalising its de facto control of transit through the Strait of Hormuz. One of Iran’s primary negotiating objectives is to secure sovereignty over the strait — an objective more important to Tehran than fee revenue from merchant vessels. The strait will not return to normal without either a deal that ends Iranian control or a US-led military operation that forces the strait open. Recognition of Iranian claims of sovereignty is both unacceptable and fails to accomplish a return to normal. The binary the international community now faces is “deal or force”.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Jones — Warns Labour Against “Fantasy Politics”; “No Magic Answer”
Senior Starmer ally Darren Jones, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, warned Labour against playing “fantasy politics” on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg yesterday. With Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting both positioning themselves to replace the Prime Minister, Jones said there is no “magic answer” to fix the country’s problems. “Irrespective of individual ambitions from any of my colleagues, the big questions the country faces are still the big questions the country faces,” he said. “Britain is poorer and weaker than it needs to be.” Jones said Burnham is “a brilliant politician” and he would campaign for him in Makerfield.
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Alan Johnson — Labour MPs “Daft” to Back Burnham; Snap-Election Warning
Former Home Secretary Alan Johnson said yesterday that Labour MPs would be “daft” if they backed a leadership bid by Andy Burnham. Johnson said: “Absolutely no case for Keir Starmer to step down.” Asked whether Burnham should be Prime Minister, Johnson said: “Absolutely not.” Johnson suggested Burnham would have to call a snap general election if he became Prime Minister — a mandate-renewal mechanism that would be the operational test of whether a Burnham premiership could survive its own elevation. The Prime Minister has insisted he will not walk away from No 10 if Burnham wins the 18 June by-election and triggers a leadership contest.
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Streeting Platform — Wealth Tax + Sure Start + Planning Reforms for Council Homes
Wes Streeting has set out a policy platform including a wealth tax to fund a return of the New Labour-era Sure Start programme, and planning reforms to fund council homes to prevent children growing up in temporary accommodation. Streeting told reporters on Friday he had “the numbers including ministers” to launch a leadership bid against Sir Keir Starmer but held off “to give Andy Burnham the chance” to fight the Makerfield by-election. The Streeting platform now has substantive social-policy content (Sure Start, council homes, wealth tax) that competes with Burnham’s constitutional-reform-plus-NHS positioning.
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Al Carns — Selly Oak Armed Forces Minister Emerges as Dark Horse
Al Carns, the Labour MP for Birmingham Selly Oak and minister for the armed forces, is being talked up in some Labour circles as a dark horse leadership contender. Carns was first elected in 2024 with a majority of 11,537 and was swiftly promoted to veterans minister, then minister for the armed forces in last September’s reshuffle. Carns published an article in the New Statesman titled “How Labour can win again”, in which he wrote “too many people in this country work hard and still struggle”. He would need the support of 81 Parliamentary colleagues to get on the ballot paper of any leadership contest if one is triggered.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Details of the emerging US-Iran deal firmed up through the day. Two regional officials briefed on the negotiations said today the agreement includes a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the Strait of Hormuz reopens with no tolls and Iran clears the mines it laid; Iran would freely sell oil through sanctions waivers; and the US would lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran would commit never to pursue nuclear weapons and to negotiate the suspension of uranium enrichment and the removal of its highly enriched uranium stockpile during the 60-day window. But a senior Iranian source today denied Tehran had agreed to hand over its uranium — the central US demand — and an Iranian military spokesman said Iran will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz “even in the event of an agreement with the United States”.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio said today “significant progress, although not final progress, has been made” in the talks. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said: “We remain ready for talks, but the experience of past negotiations with the US forces us to exercise the utmost caution.” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi posted on social media: Iran is “seeking peace with strength, pursuing diplomacy with dignity and firmly defending the territorial integrity, independence and rights of our beloved Iran”. The Sunday political shows in the UK led with the Labour leadership question, with the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg airing at 09:00.
- If a final agreement is reached, US forces that moved to the area in recent months to support the assault on Iran would withdraw. President Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday that he will not sign any final agreement without conditions that Iran dismantle its entire nuclear programme and remove all enriched uranium from the country. Brent eased to $102.30 at Friday’s close, ten-year gilts at 5.02%; markets re-open Monday with the “largely negotiated” framework as the dominant variable for European and Asian energy pricing.
GEO Geopolitical
US-Iran Deal Details — 60-Day Hormuz Reopening, Sanctions Waivers, Uranium Dispute
Two regional officials briefed on the Pakistan-led negotiations said today the United States is close to a deal with Iran that would end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and see Iran give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Under the emerging agreement, the Strait of Hormuz would gradually reopen in parallel with the US ending its blockade of Iran’s ports. The US would allow Iran to sell oil through sanctions waivers, with sanctions relief and the release of Iran’s frozen funds negotiated during a 60-day time frame. The draft deal also includes an end to the war between Israel and Hezbollah and a commitment to non-interference in the domestic affairs of countries in the region.
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Iran Denies Uranium Handover; Military — “Iran Will Continue to Control” Strait
A senior Iranian source said today that Tehran has not agreed to hand over its uranium stockpile to the United States. An Iranian military spokesman stressed on X that Iran would continue to control the Strait of Hormuz even in the event of an agreement with the United States. IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported the potential agreement allocates 30 days for procedures related to the Strait of Hormuz and a 60-day period for nuclear talks, and that Iran has not yet accepted any actions on its nuclear programme. The Iranian counter-briefing today directly disputes the President Trump “largely negotiated” framing of Saturday night.
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Rubio — “Significant Progress, Not Final”; Pezeshkian Urges “Utmost Caution”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio struck a cooler tone today than the President had on Saturday night, saying: “Significant progress, although not final progress, has been made.” Rubio repeated the US position that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon and must turn over its highly enriched uranium, and the Strait of Hormuz must be opened. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, whose office released a statement today, said: “We remain ready for talks, but the experience of past negotiations with the US forces us to exercise the utmost caution.” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi posted on social media early Sunday that Iran is “seeking peace with strength, pursuing diplomacy with dignity and firmly defending the territorial integrity, independence and rights of our beloved Iran”.
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Pakistan’s Sharif and Munir Push Iran Toward Deal in Tehran Visit
Iran today hosted Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, who met with Iran’s political and military leadership and pushed for Tehran to agree to the proposed agreement. The Sharif-Munir Sunday visit follows Munir’s “short but highly productive” visit on Saturday and is the most senior Pakistani diplomatic deployment since the negotiating process began. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also spoke with European and regional counterparts and the United Nations Secretary General António Guterres today, seeking to defuse tensions.
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Iran “Stalling” to Normalise Hormuz Control; “Deal or Force” the Binary Choice
One of Iran’s primary negotiating objectives is to secure sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — an objective more important to Tehran than fee revenue from merchant vessels. Iran is likely stalling and delaying the negotiations process precisely because the protraction of the current situation serves Iran’s interests by letting Tehran normalise its de facto control of transit through the strait. The international community cannot “wait out” Iran’s control. The strait will not return to normal without either a deal that ends Iranian control or a US-led military operation that forces the strait open. Recognition of Iranian claims of sovereignty is both unacceptable and fails to accomplish a return to normal.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Sunday Political Shows — Leadership Question Dominates; Kuenssberg Airs 09:00
Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg aired at 09:00 on BBC One, with the Labour leadership question the dominant frame across all the morning political shows today. The previous week’s edition was explicitly titled “Can Starmer Survive?”. The 18 June Makerfield by-election is the operational test of whether Andy Burnham can convert his personal popularity into an MP seat and from there a leadership challenge; a Burnham loss would, on his own allies’ admission, end his ambitions.
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Burnham — “Great Resentment” About IHT; Care Levy to “Save NHS”
Andy Burnham used Friday’s Makerfield campaign launch to put the NHS firmly on the agenda. Burnham said: “There is a great resentment about inheritance tax — take that away and look at a care levy.” The Greater Manchester mayor said he thought the NHS was “almost being overwhelmed” by a “broken” care system. The IHT-to-social-care-levy idea picks up a long-running social-policy thread: think tanks across the political spectrum have argued for hypothecating funds for adult social care, but no major UK party has previously made an explicit pledge. Burnham is the first senior Labour figure with realistic leadership prospects to put it formally on the table.
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“Operation Save Starmer” — Economy + Inflation Tailwinds; Bank Rates on Downward Path
Inside Downing Street, Starmer’s allies now believe they can “Keep Keir In”. New figures show the economy growing above expectations, inflation has slowed to 2.8% — the lowest level in over a year — and Rachel Reeves’s preferred environment of lower interest rates to protect mortgage holders is likely to remain the Bank of England’s stance with unemployment beginning to rise. Reeves’s cost-of-living package this week — free bus travel for children, the cancellation of a planned 5p rise in fuel duty, a VAT cut from 20% to 5% on summer attraction tickets, 100 food-tariff removals, and a £120m support package for the ceramics industry — is the substantive policy spine of the Prime Minister’s argument that the hard decisions are bearing fruit.
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BBC Radio Manchester — Makerfield Candidates Series Underway
BBC Radio Manchester is running a series of interviews this week with candidates for the 18 June Makerfield by-election. Andy Burnham took questions from presenter Mike Sweeney and audience members on Wednesday; Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon and Liberal Democrat Stockport councillor Jake Austin appear in the same series later in the week. The format — candidates fielding live audience questions — is the most direct constituency-level testing of campaign positioning to date. The writ for the by-election was moved by the Commons speaker after Josh Simons’s resignation; polling day is 21-27 days from the writ.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- President Donald Trump said overnight that a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal with Iran — including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — has been “largely negotiated”. Iran disputes the strait claim. Iran’s Fars news agency said early Sunday that the agreement would allow Iran to manage the Strait of Hormuz, calling Trump’s reopening assertion “inconsistent with reality”. Iran and Pakistan submitted a revised proposal to Washington on Saturday; a formal US response is expected today. Two Pakistani sources described the deal being negotiated as “fairly comprehensive to terminate the war”.
- Andy Burnham used his Makerfield campaign launch on Friday to say he would look at Wes Streeting’s proposal for a wealth tax and suggested inheritance tax could be abolished and replaced with a social care levy paid to fund improvement in the sector. Burnham’s allies suggest Ed Miliband as his pick for chancellor. Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s allies are lobbying Labour MPs in defence of her job — warning Miliband “would not be trusted by the bond markets”. The leadership-and-chancellor question now defines the next four weeks of UK politics ahead of the 18 June Makerfield vote.
- The proposed Iran framework would unfold in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the Hormuz crisis and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement. Two-month negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme would follow. The Strait of Hormuz would be reopened and the US would end its blockade of Iranian ports. Brent eased to $102.30 at Friday’s close, ten-year gilts at 5.02%; the operational variable for Monday’s European open is whether Washington accepts the proposal today.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump — Iran Deal “Largely Negotiated”; Hormuz Reopening Claimed
President Donald Trump said on Saturday night that a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal with Iran has been “largely negotiated”, with details to be unveiled soon. “Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform. Trump posted that the emerging agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He said he had spoken with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain, and separately with Israel. The Gulf and regional leaders encouraged Trump to agree to the emerging framework.
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Iran’s Fars — Trump’s Hormuz Reopening Claim “Inconsistent With Reality”
Iran’s Fars news agency, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, reported early on Sunday that the emerging agreement would allow Iran to manage the Strait of Hormuz, and that Trump’s assertion the strait would be reopened was “inconsistent with reality”. Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said on Saturday that the strait “does not concern” the United States and that Iran and Oman should define a mechanism for the waterway as coastal states. Tasnim News Agency, also IRGC-affiliated, reported that Iran has demanded the strait not return to its pre-war mechanism and “legal regime”, and that negotiations will not proceed while the US naval blockade remains in place.
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Iran and Pakistan Submit Revised Proposal; US Response Expected Today
Iran and Pakistan submitted a revised proposal to the United States late on Saturday to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, two Pakistani sources familiar with the negotiations said. A US response is expected today. “The deal is fairly comprehensive,” a Pakistani official involved in the negotiations said. “It is never over till it is done.” Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir left Tehran on Saturday after talks with Iran’s top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The Pakistan military statement on Saturday described the visit as “short but highly productive” with “encouraging progress” towards a final understanding.
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Three-Stage Framework — End War, Resolve Hormuz, 30-Day Window
The proposed framework would unfold in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement, which can be extended. A two-month negotiation track on Iran’s nuclear programme would follow the war-ending declaration. Iran has demanded an end to the US blockade of Iranian ports, the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil sales, the release of frozen funds and supervision of the strait. If the US and Iran agree, the memorandum would lead to further talks after the Eid holiday ends on Friday.
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Iran’s Counterproposal Frontloads Demands; “Regime Believes It Is Winning”
Iran’s latest counterproposal frontloads its key demands on the withdrawal of “a US threat to Iran”, financial relief, and Iran’s “right” to manage the Strait of Hormuz, while attempting to delay discussion of Iran’s nuclear programme. The proposal indicates the Iranian regime believes it is winning the war and is negotiating from a position of strength. Iranian officials continue to emphasise Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz as the key sticking point. Iran has demanded an end to the US naval blockade and said negotiations will not proceed while the blockade remains in place.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham — Open to Wealth Tax; Abolish IHT, Replace with Social Care Levy
Andy Burnham used Friday’s Makerfield campaign launch to say he would look at proposals from Wes Streeting, the former health secretary, for a wealth tax. Burnham also suggested that inheritance tax could be abolished and replaced with a social care levy paid to fund improvement in the sector. The proposals position the Burnham leadership pitch materially to the left of the 2024 Starmer-Reeves prospectus: alongside his earlier commitments to proportional representation, council tax reform, rail renationalisation and more council houses, the Burnham platform now has a substantive fiscal architecture distinct from the current government.
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Reeves Rearguard Continues — Allies Warn Bond Markets Reject Miliband
Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s backbench-lobbying push continues this weekend. Reeves has told friends she would like to stay in the chancellorship even under a new prime minister, and her allies are urging MPs to back her if Sir Keir Starmer is replaced later this year. “The biggest fear for the bond markets and the unions is Ed Miliband,” one Labour MP close to Reeves said. “I am concerned that we may lose everything if a new leader sacrifices the chancellor for promises and new alliances they are currently forging with MPs who fancy the job for themselves.” Friends of Reeves believe there is a world in which she survives the transition to a Burnham premiership precisely because it would reassure the markets.
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“Operation Save Starmer” — Burnham Not “Nailed On”; Streeting Failed to Get Numbers
Inside Downing Street, Starmer’s allies now believe they can “Keep Keir In”. On Starmer’s reckoning, as one ally put it, Burnham is far from “nailed on” in Makerfield; and Wes Streeting will have a struggle to get back into the leadership race on favourable terms, having resigned from cabinet only to fail to secure “the numbers”. The Prime Minister broke this week with his aloof communications style by walking across Downing Street to chat directly to the press, and joked publicly about his tongue slip in the Commons about a “North Korea trade deal” (he meant South Korea).
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Sunday Politics — “Can Starmer Survive?” Question Dominates Morning Shows
The Sunday morning political shows today are dominated by the leadership question, with the previous week’s edition of the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg explicitly titled “Can Starmer Survive?”. The Makerfield by-election on 18 June is the operational testing ground: a Burnham win is widely seen as the launch pad for a formal leadership challenge; a Burnham loss would, on his allies’ own admission, end his ambitions. Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon — a local plumber who came within 5,399 votes of Josh Simons in 2024 — is the operational test of whether Labour’s migration tightening and Burnham’s personal pull are enough to check Reform’s advance into traditional Labour territory.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir concluded a “short but highly productive” visit to Tehran on Saturday, Pakistan’s military said, with “encouraging progress” towards a final understanding. But Iran’s top negotiator, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, told Munir Iran “will not compromise on national rights” and called the United States “not an honest party”. Qalibaf warned Iran’s armed forces had “rebuilt their capabilities during the ceasefire” and if Washington “foolishly restarts the war”, the consequences would be “more forceful and bitter” than at the start. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran is in the “final stages of drafting a framework” with a 30-to-60-day timeline for memorandum-of-understanding details — but “deep and significant” disagreements remain.
- Andy Burnham’s first weekend of Makerfield campaigning has begun. Wes Streeting, who resigned from the Cabinet earlier this month, said in an interview in an interview overnight he had “the numbers including ministers” to launch a leadership bid against Sir Keir Starmer but held off “to give Andy Burnham the chance” to fight Makerfield. “If I’d rushed ahead and triggered a leadership contest before Andy Burnham had the chance to come back, people would have just said I was trying to pull a fast one,” Streeting said in an interview. Streeting also unveiled his “first campaign pledges”: fund the full restoration of Sure Start, paid for by a wealth tax.
- Iran has launched an “information operation” to frame its protection-racket scheme in the Strait of Hormuz as a legitimate maritime security service. Vessels dealing with Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority have sometimes received payment requests of up to $2 million for safe passage; Reuters reports most ships pay around $150,000. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have jointly written to the International Maritime Organization warning that any recognition of Iran’s proposed transit rules “would set a dangerous precedent”. Brent eased to $102.30 at Friday’s close, ten-year gilts at 5.02%; markets re-open Monday with Iran-Pakistan diplomacy as the operational variable.
GEO Geopolitical
Qalibaf to Munir — “Will Not Compromise”; US “Not Honest Party”
Iran’s top negotiator, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, told Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir during talks in Tehran on Saturday that the United States was “not an honest party” in negotiations to end the war and that Iran “would not compromise on its national rights”. Qalibaf said Iran would pursue its “legitimate rights”, both on the battlefield and through diplomacy, but added it could not trust “a party that has no honesty at all”. He warned that Iran’s armed forces had “rebuilt their capabilities during the ceasefire” and if the United States “foolishly restarts the war”, the consequences would be “more forceful and bitter” than at the start of the conflict.
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Pakistan Army “Encouraging Progress”; Baghaei — Framework in 30-60 Days
Pakistan’s military said in a statement on Saturday that Field Marshal Munir had concluded a “short but highly productive” official visit to Iran, during which “encouraging progress” was made towards reaching a final understanding. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told state broadcaster IRIB on Saturday that Tehran was in the “final stages of drafting a framework for a deal to end the war with the US”: “Within a reasonable period of 30 to 60 days, the details of these points will be discussed, and a final agreement will ultimately be concluded. We are currently in the process of finalising these memoranda of understanding.” But Baghaei also said Munir’s visit “does not mean we have reached a turning point or a decisive situation”, adding that “deep and significant” disagreements remained.
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Iran “Information Operation”; Vessels Paying $150K-$2M for Hormuz Transit
Iran has launched an information operation to frame its protection racket in the Strait of Hormuz as a legitimate maritime security service. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy claimed on 22 May that 35 vessels transited the strait in the past 24 hours after obtaining Iranian “permission” and “security”. this “security” is “effectively protection from attacks by Iranian forces, which is the only force that has threatened shipping in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026.” Bloomberg reports vessels dealing with Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority have sometimes received payment requests of up to $2 million for safe passage; Reuters reports most ships pay around $150,000.
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Five Gulf States Joint IMO Statement; “Dangerous Precedent”
Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have jointly written in a statement to the International Maritime Organization that Iran appears to be attempting “to control traffic” through the Strait of Hormuz by forcing vessels to use a route within its territorial waters. The statement warned that any recognition of Iran’s proposed route or the Persian Gulf Strait Authority “would set a dangerous precedent”. “The war cannot end in a way that secures US and allied interests until Iran abandons its effort to control the strait. Recognition or compliance with Iranian transit rules would allow the regime to achieve de facto control over the strait.”
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France Drafts UNSC Resolution for International Hormuz Mission
France has drafted a United Nations Security Council resolution proposing an international mission to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. A competing US-Bahraini proposal faces resistance from Russia and China, which have signalled they may veto the measure. The dispute over control of the strategic waterway has become a key obstacle in efforts to end the US-Israeli war on Iran amid rising oil prices and shipping disruptions. Iran said Saturday that fees and tolls linked to transit through the Strait of Hormuz are part of a “security service” provided to vessels crossing the strategic waterway, as Tehran rejects US threats of escalation and asserts control under what it calls a “new reality”.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
First Weekend of Makerfield Campaigning Begins
The first weekend of campaigning is set to get under way in Makerfield, in a by-election that Andy Burnham has said could “change Labour”. Burnham, who is viewed as a challenger to Sir Keir Starmer in a potential Labour leadership race, launched his by-election campaign on Friday and promised he was not offering “more of the same”. He faces Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon — a plumber who said he is “ready to take on the King of the North” in a reference to Burnham’s nickname — and Liberal Democrat Stockport councillor Jake Austin. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage joined Kenyon on the campaign trail earlier this week and described the by-election as a “David versus Goliath battle”.
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Streeting’s Mirror Interview — “Numbers Including Ministers”
Wes Streeting, who resigned from the Cabinet earlier this month, said in an interview in an interview overnight that he had “the numbers including ministers” to launch a leadership bid against Sir Keir Starmer but held off “to give Andy Burnham the chance” to fight the Makerfield by-election. “If I’d rushed ahead and triggered a leadership contest before Andy Burnham had the chance to come back, people would have just said I was trying to pull a fast one, trying to get ahead of the competition,” Streeting said. He also unveiled his “first campaign pledges”: fund the full restoration of Sure Start, paid for by a wealth tax.
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Burnham — PR + Council Tax Reform; “Honour Manifestos”
Andy Burnham used the launch of his Makerfield campaign to commit publicly for the first time to wanting a proportional representation pledge in the next Labour manifesto, and to back council tax reform. Asked about the 2024 manifesto, Burnham said: “I think you’ve got to honour manifestos” — appearing to rule out breaking promises Labour made at the general election. He said there is “space to be more radical” within Labour’s 2024 manifesto, including building more council houses and with rail renationalisation.
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Starmer Says “100% Behind” Burnham; Will Campaign in Makerfield
Sir Keir Starmer said on Thursday he would campaign personally in the Makerfield by-election for Andy Burnham. “I want to be part of that, of course I do,” Starmer told reporters. “I’ve said to the whole Labour movement that I want everybody to be involved in the campaign, whatever other discussions are going on. It’s really important — that’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform.” The by-election takes place on 18 June.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir arrived in Tehran on Friday to join Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who had met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi twice in two days. A Qatari negotiating team is also in Tehran in coordination with the United States; Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Sweden that Pakistan remains the “primary interlocutor”. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei tempered expectations: “deep and extensive differences remain… we cannot necessarily say we have reached a point where a deal is near.” A third Qatari LNG tanker (Al Sahla) is transiting the Strait of Hormuz to China.
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves has launched a rearguard action to save her job this morning, telling friends she would like to stay even under a new prime minister. Her supporters are now actively lobbying Labour MPs — warning that Burnham’s reported preferred chancellor pick, Ed Miliband, “would not be trusted by the bond markets”. The chancellor question is now, “almost as important as that for prime minister”. Brent has eased further to $102.30; ten-year gilts at 5.02%, down sixteen basis points from Friday a week ago.
- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said on 22 May that 35 vessels have now transited the Strait of Hormuz after obtaining Iranian “permits” and “security” — framed by ISW as the operational rollout of the “mafia-esque protection racket”. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the International Maritime Organization have all rejected Iran’s claim that the strait is in its territorial waters. The United Nations nuclear non-proliferation treaty review conference concluded last night without agreement after four weeks.
GEO Geopolitical
Pakistan Defence Chief Munir Arrives Tehran; Mediation Enters Decisive Phase
Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces, Field Marshal Asim Munir, arrived in Tehran on Friday to join Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who had met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi twice in two days. Munir was at the centre of the only direct US-Iran negotiations in April, hosting Vice President JD Vance in Islamabad. A Qatari negotiating team also arrived in Tehran on Friday in coordination with the United States.
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Iran’s Baghaei — “Deep and Extensive Differences Remain”; Hopes Tempered
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei tempered expectations of a breakthrough on Friday, saying that “deep and extensive” differences remain between Washington and Tehran. “We cannot necessarily say we have reached a point where a deal is near,” Baghaei said, according to Iran’s state news agency IRNA. The Qatari delegation was holding talks with Foreign Minister Araghchi, Baghaei confirmed, while Pakistan remained the main mediator. Baghaei added that the focus of the current negotiations was ending the war and that nuclear details were “not being discussed at this stage” — consistent with Iran’s position that war-end guarantees must precede detailed nuclear talks.
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IRGC Says 35 Vessels Obtained “Permits”; Gulf States + IMO Reject
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said on Friday that 35 vessels have transited the Strait of Hormuz after obtaining Iranian “permits” and “security”. the “security” as “effectively protection from attacks by Iranian forces, which is the only force that has threatened shipping in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026”. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the International Maritime Organization have all formally rejected Iran’s claim that the strait is in its territorial waters. “The war cannot end in a way that secures US and allied interests until Iran abandons its effort to control the strait.”
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UN Non-Proliferation Treaty Conference Concludes Without Agreement
The United Nations nuclear non-proliferation treaty review conference concluded last night after four weeks without an agreement, the Associated Press reports, with the United States and Iran on opposite sides throughout. The US called Iran a “prolific violator of the treaty” and said Tehran spent the conference “evading accountability for its grotesque violations”. Iran accused Washington and its allies of an “implacable campaign” to legitimise “illegal attacks” against the country and its nuclear facilities. The conference, which began on 27 April, ran in parallel to the Pakistani-mediated US-Iran direct negotiating track.
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Third Qatari LNG Tanker Through Hormuz to China; First to Beijing-Direct
A third Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker, the Al Sahla (211,842 cubic metres), is transiting the Strait of Hormuz and heading to China, the first material commercial movement to China direct since the war began. The vessel left Ras Laffan and is expected to arrive at China’s Tianjin LNG terminal on 14 June. The previous two Qatari LNG tankers to make it through the strait since the US-Israeli airstrikes unleashed the war at the end of February were sold by Qatar to Pakistan under a government-to-government deal. Shipments “continue to be erratic”.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Reeves Rearguard; Allies Warn Bond Markets Would Reject Miliband
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has launched a rearguard action to save her job this morning, telling friends she would like to stay in the post even under a new prime minister. Her supporters have been urging MPs to back her if Sir Keir Starmer is replaced later this year, saying she is the only candidate who can safeguard the country’s finances. Reports have suggested Andy Burnham is considering appointing Energy Secretary Ed Miliband as chancellor if he makes it to No 10. Reeves’ allies are warning that Miliband “would not be trusted by the bond markets, which set the government’s borrowing costs”. One Labour insider: “The fight over who gets to be chancellor is almost as important as that for prime minister.”
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Burnham “Change By-election”; Thinly Veiled No 10 Pitch
Andy Burnham formally launched his Makerfield by-election campaign in Ashton-in-Makerfield on Friday with what the Guardian described as “a barely coded pitch for Downing Street”, saying a vote for him would be “a vote to change Labour”. Burnham: “This is a change by-election. British politics needs to change its tired old script.” And: “I’m prepared to take that fight as high as I can go. I want to play whatever part I can in changing this party back to the party here people used to know.” In a question-and-answer session, Burnham committed for the first time to a specific electoral-reform pledge: he would want a commitment in the next Labour manifesto to introduce a proportional voting system.
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Burnham — Migration “Needs to Fall Further”; Doorstep Concerns
At Friday’s Makerfield campaign launch, Andy Burnham said that UK net migration “needs to fall further”, after Office for National Statistics data on Thursday showed net migration had almost halved to 171,000 in 2025. People on the doorstep, Burnham said, have “raised their concerns about immigration” with him. The Greater Manchester mayor said the latest figures show the “trend is significantly down” but added the government must “get the balance right” on its plans to make it harder for migrants to settle permanently in the UK. The Home Office has forecast around 1.6 million people could settle in the UK between 2026 and 2030 if no further changes are made.
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Starmer Says “100% Behind” Burnham; Will Campaign in Makerfield
Sir Keir Starmer told reporters on Thursday he would campaign personally in the Makerfield by-election for Andy Burnham. “I want to be part of that, of course I do,” the Prime Minister said. “I’ve said to the whole Labour movement that I want everybody to be involved in the campaign, whatever other discussions are going on. It’s really important — that’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform.” Asked by reporters whether Burnham would want Starmer’s help, Burnham at his Friday launch dodged the question, telling reporters only that “anyone who agrees with me would be welcome”.
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Mahmood’s Migration “Success Story”; Burnham “Rowed Back”
The Times editorial framed the 171,000 net-migration figure as Labour’s “immigration success story” on Thursday evening — Mahmood’s skills-based programme vindicated after Mahmood “came bottom in a poll of Labour members testing the popularity of cabinet ministers” last month. The Times: “Mr Burnham, who initially echoed Ms Rayner’s sentiments, has rowed back. He appears to realise that the only way to defeat Reform UK in Makerfield, and across the country, is to recognise the visceral power of immigration on the doorstep.” The detoxification framing — if it holds — could check the Reform UK advance into Labour territory.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran today for a second round of mediation talks. A Qatari negotiating team also arrived in Tehran. A third Qatari LNG tanker (Al Sahla) is transiting the Strait of Hormuz on its way to China. Pakistan and Qatar have drafted a revised memo to bridge US-Iran gaps; Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are supporting the effort.
- Andy Burnham formally launched his Makerfield by-election campaign in Ashton-in-Makerfield today — the Guardian frames it as a “thinly veiled pitch for No 10”. Burnham: “This is a change by-election. British politics needs to change its tired old script… I’m prepared to take that fight as high as I can go.” He committed publicly for the first time to wanting a proportional representation pledge in the next Labour manifesto. Sir Keir Starmer said yesterday he would “100% behind” the Labour candidate; The Times editorial today vindicates Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s migration programme as Labour’s “immigration success story”.
- Ukrainian forces struck Russia’s Syzran Oil Refinery in Samara Oblast yesterday — Rosneft’s plant processing 7-8 million tons of oil per year. Russia and Belarus concluded their joint nuclear-weapons exercise today, involving more than 64,000 personnel and reportedly involving the majority of Russia’s estimated 320 ICBM launchers. Brent has eased further to $102.80; ten-year gilts at 5.02%, off Friday’s 5.18% peak by 16 basis points.
GEO Geopolitical
Pakistan’s Naqvi Meets Araghchi Again in Tehran; Framework Talks
Pakistan’s Interior Minister Syed Mohsin Naqvi met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran on Friday for a second round of mediation talks aimed at narrowing the gap between Iran and the United States. The discussions focused on developing a framework to resolve the substantive differences; Naqvi delivered the latest US message to the Iranian side two days ago. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said yesterday there were “some good signs” in the talks but that he did not want to be overly optimistic. A senior Iranian source said that while the two sides’ positions have moved closer, uranium enrichment and Hormuz controls remain the largest remaining sticking points.
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Third Qatari LNG Tanker Through Hormuz to China; Al Sahla En Route
A third Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker is transiting the Strait of Hormuz today and heading to China, as a Qatari negotiating team arrived in Tehran to try to help secure a deal to end the war with Iran. The vessel, Al Sahla, with a capacity of 211,842 cubic metres, left Ras Laffan and is expected to arrive at China’s Tianjin LNG terminal on 14 June. The previous two Qatari LNG tankers to make it through the strait since the US-Israeli airstrikes unleashed the Iran war at the end of February were sold by Qatar to Pakistan under a government-to-government deal, according to two people familiar with the matter.
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Pakistan-Qatar Revised Memo; Iran-Oman Discussing Permanent Hormuz Toll
Iran has not yet submitted a response to the latest US proposal as multiple mediators continue to narrow gaps. Pakistan and Qatar have drafted a revised memo to bridge US-Iran gaps; Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are supporting the effort. Iranian media said the proposal has narrowed some gaps “to some extent”, but that further progress depends on whether the United States moves away from military threats. Separately, Iranian Ambassador to France Mohammad Amin Nejad said on 21 May that Iran and Oman are discussing a permanent toll system to formalise Iranian control over maritime traffic through the strait.
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Khamenei Directive Hardens Tehran’s Negotiating Position
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s directive yesterday that Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile “should not leave the country” continues to harden Tehran’s negotiating position into Friday. Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday: “We will get it. We don’t need it, we don’t want it. We’ll probably destroy it after we get it.” He also rejected Iran’s proposed Strait of Hormuz transit fees with “It’s an international waterway.” A senior Iranian source said one technical pathway remains open: in-country dilution of the stockpile under IAEA supervision. The IAEA estimates Iran had 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to 60% at the start of the June 2025 war.
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Ukraine Strikes Syzran Refinery; Russia-Belarus Nuclear Exercise Concludes
Ukrainian forces struck the Syzran Oil Refinery in Samara Oblast yesterday. The Rosneft-owned plant has a processing capacity of seven to eight million tons of oil per year and produces gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation kerosene and bitumen. Russia and Belarus today concluded a joint nuclear-weapons exercise that began on 19 May, involving more than 64,000 personnel and over 7,800 pieces of military equipment, including over 200 missile launchers and likely the majority of Russia’s estimated 320 ICBM launchers, according to the Russian Ministry of Defence and BBC Russian Service analysis.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham “Change By-election”; Thinly Veiled Pitch for No 10
Andy Burnham formally launched his Makerfield by-election campaign today with what the Guardian describes as “a barely coded pitch for Downing Street”, saying a vote for him would be “a vote to change Labour”. Speaking at a community sports club car park in Ashton-in-Makerfield, near Wigan, Burnham said: “This is a change by-election. British politics needs to change its tired old script and the people of Makerfield are helping us write one.” And: “I’m prepared to take that fight as high as I can go. I want to play whatever part I can in changing this party back to the party here people used to know, and the party that is solidly on the side of working-class community.”
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Burnham — “Trend Significantly Down”; Migration “Needs to Fall Further”
At today’s Makerfield campaign launch, Andy Burnham said that UK net migration “needs to fall further”, after Office for National Statistics data on Thursday showed net migration had almost halved to 171,000 in 2025. People on the doorstep, Burnham said, have “raised their concerns about immigration” with him. The Greater Manchester mayor said the latest figures show the “trend is significantly down” but added the government must “get the balance right” on its plans to make it harder for migrants to settle permanently in the UK. The Home Office has forecast around 1.6 million people could settle in the UK between 2026 and 2030 if no further changes are made.
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The Times Editorial: Mahmood’s Migration “Success Story”; Burnham “Rowed Back”
The Times editorial this evening describes Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s migration programme as “one of [the government’s] few success stories”: the 171,000 net-migration figure for 2025 is the lowest since 2012. The drop, the paper argues, reflects the closure of the visa route for the dependants of students and the introduction of tougher minimum requirements for skilled work visas. The Times: “Mr Burnham, who initially echoed Ms Rayner’s sentiments, has rowed back. He appears to realise that the only way to defeat Reform UK in Makerfield, and across the country, is to recognise the visceral power of immigration on the doorstep.”
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Starmer Says “100% Behind” Burnham; Will Campaign in Makerfield
Sir Keir Starmer told reporters on a visit to Essex yesterday he would “100% behind” Labour’s Makerfield candidate — Andy Burnham — and would personally campaign in the by-election on 18 June. “I want to be part of that, of course I do,” the Prime Minister said. “I’ve said to the whole Labour movement that I want everybody to be involved in the campaign, whatever other discussions are going on. It’s really important — that’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform.” A spokesperson for Burnham responded: “Anyone who wants to embrace Andy’s campaign message is welcome on the campaign.” Burnham’s message, has been “different”.
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Burnham Backs Mahmood Immigration Changes; Soft-Left Allies Run Campaign
Andy Burnham is backing Shabana Mahmood’s controversial changes to the immigration system, his allies said in an interview on Wednesday, in a blow to those in Labour who hoped to soften them. Those close to Burnham’s campaign say he will not seek to dilute the government’s migration curbs, which include ending the right to permanent refugee status. “Andy is fighting the most important by-election in half a century in the Labour-held seat with the largest Reform vote in the country,” a source close to the campaign said in an interview. “Immigration is the second most important issue there. He must show decisive leadership on this and reframe but back the reforms.”
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium must remain inside the country. President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday that the United States “will get” the stockpile anyway and would “probably destroy it” afterwards; he also rejected Iran’s proposed Strait of Hormuz transit fees with “It’s an international waterway.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters the tolls would “make a diplomatic deal unfeasible” but said there were “some good signs”. Brent has eased further to $103.60.
- UK net migration fell sharply to 171,000 last year, the lowest level since the COVID pandemic and the lowest non-pandemic figure since 2012. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the data showed his government was “delivering” on its promise to regain control of UK borders, adding: “I know there’s more to do.” Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham said today the migration trend is “significantly down” but “needs to fall further” — bracketing the Burnham Makerfield campaign with Home Office Shabana Mahmood’s skills-based migration programme.
- The London mayor Sadiq Khan has blocked a £50 million Met Police-Palantir AI contract, citing a “clear and serious breach” of procurement rules. Palantir’s UK head Louis Mosley hit back at the mayor today, accusing him of “putting politics above public safety”. The block is the largest UK police rejection of US AI procurement to date and creates a substantive policy split inside Labour over Palantir’s expanding NHS and policing footprint.
GEO Geopolitical
Khamenei Directive; Uranium “Should Not Leave the Country”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium “should not leave the country” on Thursday citing two senior Iranian sources, hardening Tehran’s stance on one of the central US demands in the peace talks. “The Supreme Leader’s directive, and the consensus within the establishment, is that the stockpile of enriched uranium should not leave the country,” one of the sources said. Iran’s top officials believe that sending the material abroad would leave the country “more vulnerable to future attacks by the United States and Israel”. Israeli officials have separately said that Trump has assured Israel that the stockpile “will be sent out of Iran” — an assurance now in direct contradiction with the Khamenei directive.
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Trump “We Will Get It”; Hormuz “International Waterway”
President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday that the United States “will get” Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium — in direct response to the Khamenei directive. “We will get it. We don’t need it, we don’t want it. We’ll probably destroy it after we get it, but we’re not going to let them have it,” Trump said. He separately rejected Iran’s proposed Strait of Hormuz transit fees: “We want it open, we want it free. We don’t want tolls. It’s an international waterway.” Trump remains ready to resume strikes “if we don’t get the right answers” from Iran’s leadership.
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Rubio “Hormuz Tolls Make Deal Unfeasible”; “Completely Illegal”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Thursday that a diplomatic deal between the United States and Iran would be “unfeasible” if Tehran implemented a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz. “No one in the world is in favour of the tolling system. It can’t happen. It would be unacceptable. It would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible if they were to continue to pursue that. So it’s a threat to the world if they were trying to do that, and it’s completely illegal,” Rubio said. He acknowledged there had been “some progress” in talks with Tehran but said Washington was dealing with “a system that itself is a little fractured”. “There’s some good signs… I don’t want to be overly optimistic.”
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Iran “Mafia-Esque Protection Racket”; $150,000 Per-Transit Fee
The Institute for the Study of War continues to assess that Iran is using the ceasefire to “normalize Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz” via a multi-tiered transit-fee scheme run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Russia and China sit at the top tier as strategic partners; India and Pakistan operate under negotiated bilateral agreements; other states are case-by-case; vessels linked to Iranian adversaries are denied access; ships without a bilateral framework pay approximately $150,000 per transit. the fees as “part of a mafia-esque protection racket in which the vessels pay Iran so that the Iranian navy can ‘secure’ the vessels against an attack by the Iranian navy or Iranian shore-based missiles and drones”.
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India Won’t Send More Tankers Until 13 Stranded Ships Return
India’s government wants to secure the return of its ships stranded in the Gulf before sending any vessels back to load fuel. India will send vessels to the west of the Strait of Hormuz “whenever the situation becomes conducive”, the official added. Thirteen Indian-flagged vessels and one Indian-owned vessel are still stuck on the west side of the strait. Thirteen vessels loaded with energy cargoes — mostly liquefied petroleum gas, used for cooking in India — have so far transited out of the strait since its effective closure on 28 February.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
UK Net Migration 171,000; Lowest Non-Pandemic Figure Since 2012
UK net migration fell to 171,000 in 2025 — the lowest level since the COVID pandemic and the lowest non-pandemic figure since 2012 — according to Office for National Statistics data released on Thursday. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the data showed his government was “delivering”, adding: “I know there’s more to do, we’re introducing a skills-based migration system that rewards contribution and ends our reliance on cheap overseas workers.” The Home Office said on X: “We are ending Britain’s reliance on overseas labour, ensuring migrants contribute more than they take and are increasing the removal of illegal migrants and foreign criminals.”
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Burnham (BBC): Net Migration “Needs to Fall Further”; Trend “Significantly Down”
Andy Burnham said today that UK net migration “needs to fall further”, after Home Office figures showed it had almost halved since 2024. The Greater Manchester mayor said the latest figures — net migration of 171,000 in 2025 — show the “trend is significantly down”. The intervention firmly aligns Burnham with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s skills-based crackdown ahead of his 18 June Makerfield by-election, where Reform UK’s “Brexit betrayal” attack line will test his migration positioning directly. The Home Office has forecast that around 1.6 million people could settle in the UK between 2026 and 2030 if no further changes are made.
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Khan Blocks Met-Palantir £50m; “Clear and Serious Breach”
London mayor Sadiq Khan has blocked a £50 million contract between the Metropolitan Police and the controversial US tech company Palantir, with City Hall citing a “clear and serious breach” of procurement rules. Scotland Yard had been in talks to use Palantir’s AI technology to automate intelligence analysis in criminal investigations. The Mayor’s Office for Policing and Crime withheld approval, saying Scotland Yard had seriously engaged with only one potential supplier and that the Met risked becoming locked into Palantir’s technology. Mopac said the proposed deal had not “ensured or demonstrated value for money”.
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Palantir Hits Back; Accuses Khan of “Politics Above Public Safety”
Palantir has accused Sir Sadiq Khan of “putting politics above public safety” after the London mayor blocked its £50 million Met Police contract. Louis Mosley, who heads Palantir in the UK and Europe, accused Khan of politicising procurement: “What Londoners value is not being mugged, not being raped by a serving police officer.” The block has created tensions inside Labour over the party’s broader engagement with the Palantir AI/data platform. Scotland Yard described the move as “disappointing”, adding that without new technology its ability to keep London safe would be compromised.
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Andrew Trade Envoy Files Released; Queen “Very Keen”
Newly released government files suggest the late Queen Elizabeth II was “very keen” for Prince Andrew to be made a UK trade envoy. The documents, released yesterday, highlight the role of the Queen and show “no evidence” of a formal vetting process around the appointment. The files release lands alongside continuing police interest in Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor; the BBC notes the contemporary political context of the cabinet-level interest in how the appointment was made. The Aston Villa Europa League victory bus parade in Birmingham — the headline counter-news image of the day — ran in parallel through the late-Thursday news cycle.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered a cost-of-living statement to the Commons today: a 10p increase in the tax-free mileage rate to 55p (backdated to April, the first rise in fifteen years), VAT on summer-attraction tickets cut to 5%, tariffs scrapped on 100 imported food items, free child bus travel through the summer holidays, and a £120 million package for the Stoke-on-Trent ceramics industry — politically targeted at the Labour-Reform Wigan-style battleground there. The supermarket food-price cap and energy-bill cap that had been floated were both quietly absent. The Independent’s David Maddox: this was “proof of life for a government which many think is dead”.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium must remain inside Iran, rather than being transferred abroad. Khamenei also said abandoning uranium enrichment would be “100% against the country’s national interest”. The directive directly rejects the central US negotiating demand and contradicts even the conditional dilution-and-send-to-Russia proposal Iran floated this week. Trump and Vance’s Tuesday optimism reads materially differently this evening; Brent eased further to $104.40 nonetheless.
- Iran is using the ceasefire to run a “mafia-esque protection racket” over the Strait of Hormuz, charging vessels without a bilateral agreement around $150,000 a transit to be “secured” against attacks by the Iranian navy itself. Sixteen vessels took Iran’s route through the strait in the past twenty-four hours. The normalisation strategy is designed to gradually rebuild near pre-war traffic flows before the European-led NATO escort framework can be activated in July — deliberately weakening the case for it.
GEO Geopolitical
Khamenei: Uranium Must Stay in Iran; Abandoning Enrichment “100% Against Interests”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium must remain inside Iran. Khamenei also said abandoning uranium enrichment would be “100 percent against the country’s national interest”. The directive directly rejects the central US demand — that Iran hand over its highly enriched uranium to the United States — and contradicts even the conditional proposal Iran floated this week to dilute some of the stockpile and send the rest to Russia with a right to “reclaim it”. Iran has separately warned it may enrich uranium to 90% purity (weapons-grade) if it faces another military attack.
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Iran “Mafia-Esque Protection Racket” over Hormuz; $150,000 Fee
Iran is using the ceasefire period to “normalize Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz” via a multi-tiered transit-fee scheme run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Russia and China sit at the top tier as strategic partners; India and Pakistan operate under negotiated bilateral agreements; other states are case-by-case; ships linked to Iranian adversaries are denied access; ships without a bilateral framework pay around $150,000 per transit. the fees as “part of a mafia-esque protection racket in which the vessels pay Iran so that the Iranian navy can ‘secure’ the vessels against an attack by the Iranian navy or Iranian shore-based missiles and drones”.
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US: Skywave Seized, Celestial Sea Boarded; 91 Vessels Redirected
The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that three US officials confirmed US forces seized the US-sanctioned, Iranian-linked oil tanker M/T Skywave (IMO 9328716) between 19 and 20 May after it transited the Strait of Malacca on 14 May. US Central Command separately reported on 20 May that US Marines boarded the Iranian-flagged oil tanker M/T Celestial Sea (IMO 9397030) on suspicion of attempting to reach an Iranian port; US forces released the vessel after searching it and directing it to change course. CENTCOM has now redirected 91 commercial vessels and disabled four since the 13 April blockade on Iranian ports began.
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Pakistan-Saudi Pact: 8,000 Troops, Jet Squadron, Air Defence Sent
On Tuesday that Pakistan has sent 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets and an air defence system to Saudi Arabia as part of the September 2025 mutual defence pact, citing three security officials and two government sources who described the force as “substantial” and “combat-ready”. The aircraft were sent in April; the other assets at an unspecified later date. The deployment is required to uphold the pact in the context of repeated Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia. Pakistan’s simultaneous mediation between Washington and Tehran, including Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi’s 20 May Tehran visit, demonstrates Islamabad’s political-influence positioning in the region.
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Hezbollah Prolonged Engagement with IDF at Haddatha; First Since Ceasefire
Hezbollah defended against an Israel Defence Forces ground assault on the village of Haddatha in the Bint Jbeil District of southern Lebanon on 19 and 20 May. Hezbollah used small arms, mortars, RPGs, anti-tank guided missiles and FPV drones to defend through two attacks, a seven-hour engagement on 19 May and a four-hour one on 20 May. Hezbollah claimed to have repelled the first attack but did not claim to have repelled the second; MTV Lebanon reported IDF units destroyed homes in Haddatha after the second engagement, suggesting that the IDF dislodged Hezbollah.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Reeves: 10p Mileage Rise to 55p; First Raise in 15 Years
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced in the Commons this morning a 10p per mile increase in the tax-free mileage rate, taking it from 45p to 55p, backdated to April 2026 (2026-27 tax year). The increase is the first since 2011, when George Osborne raised the rate from 40p to 45p. MoneySavingExpert quoted Martin Lewis describing it as a “really important change” for drivers; the Birmingham Mail calculated the average benefit at £120 per year. The mileage increase is, the Independent argues, “the biggest help in the measures” in today’s package — specifically aimed at the “white van man and woman” constituency that Sir Keir Starmer has been referencing.
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Reeves Package: VAT Cut on Attractions, 100 Food Tariffs Removed, £120m Ceramics
The wider Reeves cost-of-living package announced today, includes a VAT reduction from 20% to 5% on tickets for summer attractions (theme parks, zoos and museums); free bus travel for children over the summer holiday; the removal of import tariffs from 100 food items including biscuits and baked beans; a VAT cut on children’s meals; and a £120 million support package for the ceramics industry largely based in Stoke-on-Trent. The Stoke component is politically specific: Stoke was won by Boris Johnson’s Tories in 2019, taken back by Labour in 2024, and is now a Reform UK target. Ceramics is also important for the aerospace sector.
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“Proof of Life” for a Government “Many Think is Dead”
The Independent’s Political Editor David Maddox framed today’s Reeves announcement as “proof of life for a government which many think is dead”: “The context is that this is a government teetering on collapse. The prime minister could be replaced before the summer and his chancellor Ms Reeves will surely follow him out of the exit door.” The uncertainty, Maddox argues, “ties the hands of ministers in attempting to do anything significant” — so the package is “more about reminding people that Keir Starmer’s government is still alive and still trying to do something even if it is not much”. Reeves’s own defence is that “the fundamentals are right” and that the IMF has “upgraded the low forecast on growth”.
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Burnham (Yesterday): “100%” Understand Why People Want Starmer to Step Down
Andy Burnham’s first sit-down television interview since being confirmed as Labour’s Makerfield by-election candidate, given to ITV News’s Daniel Hewitt yesterday, continues to drive Thursday’s news cycle. Burnham said he “100%” understands why people want Sir Keir Starmer to step down: “They’re sending a message.” He confirmed that becoming an MP would be the “first step” on the path to a Labour leadership challenge. “I’ve indicated always in my role as mayor that one day I will seek to return to Westminster,” he said. The framing politely contradicts Lammy’s “back on the pitch” and Nandy’s “froth and nonsense” lines.
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Conservatives: Reeves Package “Sticking Plaster”; Mileage Welcomed
The Conservative response to today’s Reeves announcement has been to welcome the mileage rise and fuel duty extension while framing the wider package as a “sticking plaster” against the Iran-war inflation backdrop. The wider Conservative attack line — Kemi Badenoch’s yesterday-PMQs claim of credit for the fuel duty “U-turn”, and her reference to Labour MPs having voted to ban new British oil and gas licences — continues. Starmer’s Wednesday-PMQs “Eurovision/FA Cup” riposte remains the operative Number 10 framing of the Conservative leadership’s positioning.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- At PMQs today Sir Keir Starmer extended the 5p fuel duty cut for the rest of 2026 and gave the haulage industry a twelve-month vehicle excise duty holiday, a package worth around £400 million which the Treasury will fully cost on Thursday. Kemi Badenoch claimed credit for a “U-turn”; Starmer told the Commons she had in her mind “won Eurovision on Saturday and scored the winning goal in the FA Cup final”. Rachel Reeves has separately dropped the supermarket food price cap push after a sharp retail backlash. The cabinet ring-fence around the Prime Minister continues to hold; the Burnham 18-June Makerfield campaign starts in earnest from tomorrow.
- The Iran deal track held through the day. Vice President JD Vance said at the White House yesterday that the United States and Iran had made “a lot of progress” in talks and that “neither side wants to see a resumption of the military campaign”; Trump told reporters he had been “an hour away” from ordering the cancelled strike. Two Chinese supertankers exited the Strait of Hormuz this morning with four million barrels of crude. The Indian rupee hit a record low overnight on US-Iran stalemate fears; Brent eased further to $105.20 (-1.1%); the FTSE 100 closed up +0.14% at 8,302.
- Andy Burnham gave his first sit-down television interview since the Makerfield confirmation, telling ITV News he “100%” understands why people want Starmer to step down: “they’re sending a message”. Burnham also said becoming an MP would be the “first step” on the path to a Labour leadership challenge. The cabinet ring-fence is operationally holding; the contest itself, when triggered, is now a question of when not whether. PMQs and the Burnham interview together marked the formal start of the 18 June by-election campaign.
GEO Geopolitical
Vance: “A Lot of Progress” in Iran Talks; Neither Side Wants Resumption
US Vice President JD Vance told a White House press briefing on Tuesday that the United States and Iran have made “a lot of progress” in their talks and that “neither side wants to see a resumption of the military campaign”. “We’re in a pretty good spot here,” Vance said. He acknowledged the difficulty of negotiating with a “fractured Iranian leadership”: “It’s not sometimes totally clear what the negotiating position of the team is”, adding that the US is trying to make its own red lines clear. One objective of the policy, Vance said, is to prevent a nuclear arms race spreading in the region.
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Two Chinese Supertankers Exit Hormuz with 4m Barrels of Crude
Two Chinese supertankers, the Yuan Gui Yang and Ocean Lily, exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday morning carrying approximately four million barrels of Iraqi crude oil. The exit was the first material commercial movement through the strait since Iran’s newly-established Persian Gulf Strait Authority began formalising its claimed transit authority on Sunday. Brent crude fell to as low as $110.16 a barrel on the news before regaining most of its losses; by the close it had eased further to $105.20, the lowest mark of the post-cancellation period.
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Iran Proposal Terms: Reparations, US Troop Exit, Sanctions Lifted
Iran’s latest peace proposal to end the war — as confirmed by Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi via IRNA news agency — comprises five linked demands: ending hostilities on all fronts including Lebanon; the exit of US forces from areas close to Iran; reparations for the destruction caused by the US-Israeli attacks; lifting of sanctions; release of frozen funds; and an end to the US marine blockade of Iranian ports. The terms are “little changed” from the proposal Trump rejected last week as “garbage”. Iran is also seeking enrichment-pause durations shorter than the 20-year US demand.
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US Seized Iran-Linked Tanker Skywave in Indian Ocean
The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the United States has seized an Iran-linked oil tanker, the Skywave, in the Indian Ocean, citing three US officials. The Skywave had been sanctioned by the United States in March for its role in transporting Iranian oil. The seizure is the second high-profile US blockade-related action of the negotiating window, following the US Treasury’s Monday designation of the Amin Exchange and 19 additional vessels linked to illicit Iranian oil exports. US Central Command has now redirected 88 commercial vessels and disabled four since the 13 April blockade began.
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Hezbollah’s FPV Drones Now Cause Majority of IDF Deaths in Lebanon
Hezbollah’s first-person view (FPV) drones now cause the majority of Israel Defense Forces deaths in southern Lebanon since the 16 April ceasefire began. Israeli public broadcaster Kan reports that Hezbollah FPV drones have affected between 70 and 80 percent of Israeli forces’ freedom of movement in southern Lebanon by restricting most units to nighttime movement and operations. Hezbollah is conducting an average of about 11 attacks per day, including resuming IED ambushes along the Qouzah axis in central southern Lebanon and the Taybeh-Qantara axis in the southeast on 13 May.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Starmer at PMQs: 5p Fuel Duty Freeze Extended; Haulier Tax Holiday
At Prime Minister’s Questions today Sir Keir Starmer announced an extension of the temporary 5p fuel duty cut for the rest of 2026 and a twelve-month vehicle excise duty holiday for the haulage industry. The package is expected to cost approximately £400 million; Chancellor Rachel Reeves will set out the details on Thursday. “This is not our war, but while the parties opposite wanted to jump into it, Labour will always protect working people,” Starmer told the Commons. The Treasury said the freeze would have saved the average driver £120 over two years by the end of 2026; the one-year vehicle excise pause would save £600 for a typical heavy lorry.
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Reeves Drops Food Price Cap Push After Retail Backlash
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has dropped the Treasury push for UK supermarkets to agree voluntary food price caps after a sharp retail-industry backlash. Retail sources said in an interview that the proposal — which would have asked supermarkets to limit prices on twenty to fifty essential items including bread, milk, eggs and cheese — was “unjustified” and likely to push costs up across the board. The Independent framed the drop as Reeves having “dropped Soviet-style price caps”. The Tuesday-evening floating of the proposal in the Telegraph and Guardian was rebuffed within 24 hours.
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Burnham to ITV: “100%” Understand Why People Want Starmer to Step Down
Andy Burnham gave his first sit-down television interview since being confirmed as Labour’s Makerfield by-election candidate, telling ITV News’s Daniel Hewitt today that he “100%” understands why people want Sir Keir Starmer to step down: “They’re sending a message.” Burnham also confirmed that becoming an MP would be the “first step” on the path to a Labour leadership challenge. “I’ve indicated always in my role as mayor that one day I will seek to return to Westminster,” he said. The interview marks the formal start of the 18 June by-election campaign and the operational beginning of the leadership-contest path.
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Badenoch: “U-Turn”; Starmer Eurovision/FA Cup Final Riposte
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch sought to claim credit for the fuel-duty announcement at PMQs today, calling it a U-turn caused by her pressure on the government. Starmer rejected the framing in unusually sharp terms: “I know the leader of the opposition likes to claim responsibility for things that have got literally nothing to do with her. In her mind, she won Eurovision on Saturday and scored the winning goal in the FA Cup final.” Badenoch also pressed Starmer over Labour MPs having voted to ban new British oil and gas licences yesterday, framing the announcement as inconsistent with that vote.
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Reeves Thursday: Cost-of-Living Package Details; Iran War Funding Question
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will set out the funding details for the £400 million fuel duty + vehicle excise package on Thursday, the Treasury announced as Starmer spoke. In quotes released to coincide with the announcement, Reeves said: “The war in Iran is pushing up fuel prices here at home but after strong growth at the beginning of the year, I am stepping in to protect people at the pump.” The framing — that the package is funded out of the “fastest-growing economy in the G7” growth dividend rather than fresh borrowing — will be the operational test for the gilts market through Thursday’s announcement window.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Two Chinese supertankers exited the Strait of Hormuz this morning carrying around four million barrels of crude. Trump told reporters yesterday he had been “an hour away” from ordering the cancelled strike; Vice President JD Vance said: “We’re in a pretty good spot here.” Brent has fallen to $106.40 (-0.8%) and gilt yields have softened further; the immediate market read is that the deal-or-strike binary is starting to resolve on the deal side.
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves is today pressuring UK supermarkets to cap grocery prices to limit Iran-war inflation; the Guardian notes the SNP is pledging to use devolved public health powers to fix prices on 20-50 items in Scotland. Today’s PMQs will run head-to-head against the price-cap announcement and Burnham’s post-confirmation press round. The food inflation question is now the connective tissue between the Iran war and UK domestic politics; the autumn Budget envelope tightens further if cap mechanics are added on top of yesterday’s £102.7bn HS2 confirmation.
- Iran is now storing oil on ten aging tankers around Kharg Island and Chabahar — 42 million barrels in floating storage (a 65% jump since the war began per Kpler), 64% onshore storage capacity (Kayrros), leaving only a few weeks of production space. Some NATO countries are reportedly considering escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz beginning in early July if Iran’s blockade continues. The economic squeeze on Iran is real and accelerating — but ISW cautions that Iranian leaders “care little for the economic well-being of the Iranian people beyond the impact… on regime stability”.
GEO Geopolitical
Chinese Tankers Exit Hormuz with 4m Barrels; Trump-Vance Talk Up Deal
Two Chinese supertankers, Yuan Gui Yang and Ocean Lily, exited the Strait of Hormuz this morning carrying around four million barrels of Iraqi crude citing LSEG and Kpler data, brightening hopes that the US-Israeli conflict with Iran may soon be resolved. President Trump said the war would be over “very quickly”; Vice President JD Vance told reporters at a White House briefing: “We’re in a pretty good spot here.” Vance acknowledged the difficulty of negotiating with a “fractured Iranian leadership”: “It’s not sometimes totally clear what the negotiating position of the team is.” Brent crude fell to as low as $110.16 on the announcement before regaining most of its losses.
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Trump: “An Hour Away” from Strike; Iran Leaders “Begging for a Deal”
President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday that he had been “an hour away from making the decision to go today” on the cancelled US strike against Iran, before the joint intervention of the Qatari Emir, the Saudi Crown Prince and the Emirati President. Trump said Iran’s leaders are “begging for a deal” and a new US attack would happen in coming days if no agreement was reached. Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s national security committee, said on X that Trump’s pausing of the attack was due to the realisation that any move against Iran would mean “facing a decisive military response”.
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Iran Storing Oil on Aging Tankers; 42m Barrels Around Kharg, Chabahar
Iran has expanded its oil storage by reusing ten aging tankers to hold crude oil clustered around Kharg Island and Chabahar Port, citing United Against Nuclear Iran and the Financial Times. Maritime intelligence firm Kpler estimates Iran has 42 million crude oil barrels in floating storage in the Middle East — a 65 percent increase since the conflict began — with roughly 24 million additional barrels on empty tankers within the US blockade area. Energy intelligence firm Kayrros assesses Iran’s onshore storage has risen by about 10 million barrels to 64 percent capacity, leaving only a few weeks’ worth of oil production space.
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NATO Considers Hormuz Ship Escort Plan from Early July
A senior NATO official said on 19 May that some NATO countries support a plan to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz beginning in early July if Iran’s blockade continues. One NATO diplomat said several NATO countries support the idea, but that there is “not the required unanimous support to enact it”. The diplomat added some NATO countries remain reluctant to get involved in the conflict, but NATO is generally concerned about the economic consequences of keeping the strait closed. The escort plan would mark the first direct NATO operational involvement in the Iran war.
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Iran Studied US Fighter-Jet Flight Patterns; Russia Likely Assisted
The New York Times, citing a US military official, reports that Iranian military commanders studied the flight patterns of US fighter jets and bombers, likely ahead of and throughout the recent war. The US official said the downing of a US F-15E and an A-10 on 3 April, and damage suffered to an F-35 on 19 March, indicated US flight patterns had become “too predictable”. The official added Russia may have supported the Iranian effort as part of a broader Russian effort to help Iran target US and allied assets; Russia also provided Iran with satellite imagery of US bases and modified Shahed drones during the conflict.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Reeves Urges Supermarkets to Cap Food Prices; SNP Pledges Devolved Caps
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is today pressuring UK supermarkets to cap food prices in an attempt to limit the inflation unleashed by the Iran war; the Guardian frames the announcement as supermarkets being “urged to consider voluntary price caps on essential foods”. The Scottish National party pledged to use its devolved public health powers to fix prices on 20-50 essential items in Scotland — including bread, milk, cheese and eggs — setting up a parallel intervention if Westminster cannot deliver. The food-inflation question lands at PMQs today, having already been raised by Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey at the previous PMQs session.
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Burnham Confirmed as Labour’s Makerfield Candidate; 18 June Vote
Andy Burnham was confirmed yesterday as Labour’s candidate for the 18 June Makerfield by-election after the party’s National Executive Committee rubber-stamped his selection. No other candidates had been shortlisted. Reform UK announced local plumber Robert Kenyon as its by-election candidate minutes later, with Nigel Farage framing the contest as “The Plucky Plumber taking on Open Borders Burnham”. Burnham used this morning’s post-confirmation media to set out his economic agenda, including ruling out any imminent EU return and recommitting to the fiscal rules. The contest formally begins today; the leadership question gates open on a Burnham Westminster win.
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HS2: £87.7-£102.7bn Cost Confirmed; Opening 2036-2039
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander confirmed in the Commons yesterday that HS2 will cost between £87.7 billion and £102.7 billion in 2025 prices — roughly double the previous government’s figure in 2019 terms — and that the first trains will not run between Old Oak Common and Birmingham Curzon Street until 2036-2039, up to six years late. Top speed has been cut from 360km/h to 320km/h, saving up to £2.5 billion. £44.2 billion has already been spent. Alexander said Labour inherited a “litany of failure”: “If it seems like an obscene increase in time and costs, it is because it is. If it seems like I’m angry, it is because I am.”
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Reform’s Kenyon: “Stepping Stone” Charge vs Burnham’s “Cambridge” Bio
Reform UK’s newly-unveiled Makerfield candidate Robert Kenyon — local plumber, army reservist, former NHS specialist technician — accused Andy Burnham of treating Makerfield as a “stepping stone”. Kenyon attacked “career politicians… parachuted into somewhere they have never even visited” in a Reform UK campaign video, drawing a contrast with Burnham’s Cambridge education and former special-adviser background. Nigel Farage said: “This is the ‘Plucky Plumber’ taking on ‘Open Borders Burnham’. Only Reform UK can beat Labour in this by-election. It is a David versus Goliath battle.”
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Lammy: Raise Age of Criminal Responsibility 10 to 14?
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy is considering raising the age of criminal responsibility in England and Wales from 10 to as high as 14, The Times reported yesterday. The government is “eyeing” Scotland’s threshold, under which children cannot be charged with criminal offences before age 12, as a possible starting point. The announcement lands as the first substantive domestic-policy intervention of the cabinet-ring-fence week. The current threshold of 10 is among the lowest in Europe and below the UN-recommended minimum of 14; raising it would align England and Wales with the majority of European jurisdictions.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Andy Burnham was formally confirmed today as Labour’s candidate for the 18 June Makerfield by-election — the Guardian reports the NEC rubber-stamped the selection with no other candidates shortlisted. Reform UK unveiled local plumber Robert Kenyon minutes later, with Nigel Farage framing the contest as “The Plucky Plumber taking on Open Borders Burnham”. The Independent reports a parallel YouGov poll showing 47% of Labour members would back Burnham for prime minister. The contest now formally starts; the immediate question is whether Burnham’s “ruling out any imminent EU return” pivot and his recommitment to the fiscal rules hold through the campaign.
- Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander confirmed in the Commons today that HS2 will cost between £87.7 billion and £102.7 billion in 2025 prices — roughly double the previous government’s figure in 2019 terms — and that the first trains will not run until 2036-2039, up to six years late. Top speed is being cut from 360km/h to 320km/h. Alexander’s framing – “If it seems like I’m angry, it is because I am” – positions the Labour government as inheriting a Conservative failure; the structural fiscal envelope for the autumn Budget tightens further.
- The Iran situation is in a holding pattern. President Trump’s “two or three days” window holds; the Jerusalem Post carries new analysis from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs that any renewed war would see Iran fire “tens or hundreds of missiles a day” at Israel and target Gulf oil infrastructure to drag the Gulf states into a war they have explicitly sought to avoid. Unexplained explosions were reported on Iran’s Qeshm island. Brent eased modestly to $107.30; the immediate strike risk premium continues to come off.
GEO Geopolitical
JPost/NYT: Iran Could Fire “Hundreds of Missiles a Day” if War Renews
Hamidreza Azizi of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs said in an interview yesterday that if hostilities resume, Iran may fire “tens or hundreds of missiles per day” at Israel and the United States to “effectively confront the enemy and also change the calculation on the other side”, the Jerusalem Post reported this morning. Azizi assessed that Iranian leaders are now planning for a “short but high intensity” war — in contrast to the February-onset campaign in which they rationed missiles for several weeks — and would deliberately target Gulf oil fields, refineries and ports to drag the Gulf states into a war they have explicitly sought to avoid.
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Iran: Explosions on Qeshm Island in Strait of Hormuz; Cause Unknown
Explosions were heard on Iran’s Qeshm island in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the Jerusalem Post reported, citing the semi-official Iranian Mehr news agency, which said the cause was unknown and no further details were available. Qeshm is the largest island in the Persian Gulf and a major Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy base; it sits directly on the strait through which Iran’s newly-established Persian Gulf Strait Authority claims to control transit. No official Iranian comment has been issued; no claim of responsibility was made; Western intelligence assessments are pending. The incident comes in the third day of Trump’s “two or three day” pause on the cancelled US strike.
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Trump: “No Nuclear Weapons for Iran”; Hegseth + Caine Stand Ready
President Donald Trump’s Truth Social cancellation of last night’s scheduled US military strike against Iran — at the joint request of the Qatari Emir, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed — included a sharply more substantive sentence than the headline cancellation, the Jerusalem Post reported: “This Deal will include, importantly, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN!” Trump instructed Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Daniel Caine and the US military to remain prepared for a “full, large-scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached”.
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Iran: 1,500 Vessels Waiting for Hormuz Permission; Cables Threat Continues
The Iranian regime’s newly-established Persian Gulf Strait Authority continues to formalise its claim to manage transit through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian state media reporting that 1,500 vessels are currently waiting for Iranian permission to transit. IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency repeated yesterday’s threat that Iran could impose permits, oversight measures and sovereign fees on the subsea fibre-optic cables running through the strait — a step that would breach Articles 37, 38 and 44 of UNCLOS. The cables affected include AAE-1, FALCON, GBICS and OMRAN/EPEG.
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Russia Hits Ukraine with 546 Drones, Missiles; Belarus-Russia Begin Nuclear Drills
The Institute for the Study of War confirms that Russian forces launched 546 drones and missiles at Ukraine overnight on 17-18 May, including 14 ballistic missiles and 8 cruise missiles, with 18 missiles and 16 drones striking 34 locations primarily across Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kherson and Odesa oblasts. A Chinese-owned ship approaching the port of Odesa was hit. At least 33 civilians were injured, including three children. Russia and Belarus simultaneously began joint nuclear-weapon exercises on 18 May — the most explicit Russian nuclear-signalling event of the year.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Confirmed as Labour’s Makerfield Candidate; 18 June Vote
Andy Burnham was today confirmed as Labour’s candidate for the Makerfield by-election expected on 18 June, after Labour’s National Executive Committee rubber-stamped his selection. The party said no other candidates had been shortlisted for the seat vacated by Josh Simons. Burnham said in a statement that he was “humbled” to be selected; that the Makerfield communities had been “neglected by national politics for too long”; that the people there “feel Westminster isn’t working for them and they are right”; and that the priority was making “life more affordable again”. He is widely expected to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the leadership if elected.
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Reform Unveils “Plucky Plumber” Kenyon; Farage Frames David vs Goliath
Reform UK unveiled local plumber Robert Kenyon as its Makerfield by-election candidate minutes after Burnham’s confirmation. Kenyon — an army reservist and former NHS specialist technician in Lancashire — came within 5,399 votes of Josh Simons in 2024. Nigel Farage said: “This is the ‘Plucky Plumber’ taking on ‘Open Borders Burnham’. Only Reform UK can beat Labour in this by-election. It is a David versus Goliath battle.” Kenyon, in a Reform video, accused Burnham of treating Makerfield as a “stepping stone” and attacked “career politicians… parachuted into somewhere they have never even visited”.
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HS2: £87.7-£102.7bn Cost, Opening Pushed to 2036-2039
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander confirmed in the Commons today that the HS2 high-speed rail line will cost between £87.7 billion and £102.7 billion in 2025 prices — roughly double the previous government’s figure in 2019 terms — and that the first trains will not run between Old Oak Common and Birmingham Curzon Street until 2036-2039, up to six years late. The top speed has been cut from the original 360km/h to 320km/h, saving up to £2.5 billion and allowing delivery a year earlier. £44.2 billion has already been spent. Alexander said Labour had inherited a “litany of failure”; “If it seems like an obscene increase in time and costs, it is because it is. If it seems like I’m angry, it is because I am.”
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Alexander: “I’m Angry”; “Litany of Failure” Inherited from Tories
The Transport Secretary’s Commons statement on HS2 today set the Labour government’s framing on inherited infrastructure failure with unusual sharpness: “Instead of signalling the country’s ambition, HS2 became a signal of the country’s decline.” “If it seems like I’m angry, it is because I am.” Heidi Alexander told the Commons it could now cost “almost as much to cancel the line as it would to finish it, while delivering none of the benefits”. The cost framing — a£100bn rail project versus NASA’s £79bn Artemis Moon mission’s lead on Tuesday — is the political variable for the autumn Budget.
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Lammy: Raise Age of Criminal Responsibility from 10 to 14?
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy is considering lifting the age of criminal responsibility in England and Wales from 10 to as high as 14, The Times reported this morning. The government is “eyeing Scotland’s law”, under which children cannot be charged with criminal offences before age 12, as a possible starting point. The intervention — the first substantive domestic-policy announcement of the new political week — lands alongside the cabinet’s public ring-fence around the Prime Minister, with Lammy yesterday morning on Sky News saying “there will be no timetable for departure” and that the party needed to “get back on the pitch”.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- President Donald Trump cancelled the scheduled US military strike on Iran that had been set for today, announcing on Truth Social late last night that the Qatari Emir, Saudi Crown Prince and Emirati President asked him to suspend for “two or three days” while negotiations continue. The Gulf leaders warned, per Axios, that they would “pay the price” if the strike went ahead. Trump kept the US military prepared for a “full, large-scale assault” on short notice if talks fail. Brent has eased to $107.95 (-2.0%) and the FTSE 100 is set to open firmer; the immediate war risk premium is coming off across asset classes — but this is a three-day window, not a settlement.
- Russian forces launched the largest single overnight strike on Ukraine in over a month, the Institute for the Study of War confirms: 546 drones and missiles, including 14 ballistic missiles, with 18 missiles and 16 drones striking 34 locations primarily across Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. A Chinese-owned ship approaching Odesa was hit. Belarus and Russia simultaneously began joint nuclear-weapon exercises — the strongest Russian signalling response yet to Ukraine’s 16-17 May strikes on Moscow.
- Sir Keir Starmer’s Tuesday morning is dominated by a YouGov poll in The Times showing Burnham would defeat him 59% to 37% in a head-to-head leadership ballot of Labour members; the Daily Mail’s “Slippery Burnham’s two u-turns in one day” on Brexit and the fiscal rules now defines the Burnham-pitch counter-narrative. On Burnham’s pledge to “not rip up the fiscal rules” — markets will price that as the most material variable today.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Cancels Iran Strike at Gulf Leaders’ Request; “Two or Three Days”
President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social on 18 May that he has cancelled the scheduled US military strike against Iran that had been planned for today. Trump said Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed had asked him to suspend the strike “for two or three days” to allow ongoing negotiations. CNBC quoted Trump: “We will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow.” A US official told Axios the three Gulf leaders warned they would “pay the price” if the strike went ahead, fearing Iranian retaliation against their energy and oil infrastructure.
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Iran’s Counterproposal “Does Not Meet” US Demands on Enrichment
the revised Iranian counterproposal handed to the US through Pakistan on Monday “does not appear to meet US demands”. A senior US official and a source briefed on the matter told Axios that Iran’s counterproposal does not contain any commitment about suspending uranium enrichment or handing over its existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium — the central US demand. The US official said the Trump administration considers Iran’s proposal “insufficient”. IRGC-affiliated media said “major disagreements” remain and that Iran would never accept “an end to the war in return for nuclear commitments”.
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Iran Establishes Persian Gulf Strait Authority; Threatens Hormuz Subsea Cables
Iran is formalising and institutionalising its claimed control over transit through the Strait of Hormuz in contravention of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) stated on X yesterday that it serves as the “legal institution and representative authority” for managing transit through the strait, claims that navigation through the designated zone requires “full coordination” with the authority, and warns that unauthorised transit will be considered illegal. Iranian state media reports 1,500 vessels currently waiting for Iranian permission to transit. IRGC-affiliated Fars News said Iran could impose “permits, oversight measures, and sovereign fees” on subsea fibre-optic cables.
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Russia Hits Ukraine with 546 Drones and Missiles; Belarus-Russia Begin Nuclear Drills
Russian forces conducted the largest single overnight strike on Ukraine in more than a month, launching 546 drones and missiles on the night of 17-18 May, the Institute for the Study of War confirms. The package included 14 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and S-400 air defence missiles repurposed for surface strike, 8 Iskander-K cruise missiles, and 524 Shahed, Gerbera, Italmas and Parodiya drones. Ukrainian air defences downed 4 cruise missiles and 503 drones; 18 missiles and 16 drones struck 34 locations across Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kherson and Odesa oblasts. A Chinese-owned ship approaching the port of Odesa was hit. Russia and Belarus simultaneously began joint nuclear-weapon exercises on 18 May.
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Zelensky/SZRU: 11 Russian Banks Preparing to Liquidate; 400 Oil Wells Closed
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on 18 May that Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) has obtained Russian documents showing that one unspecified Russian oil company alone has had to close 400 active oil wells, Russia has reduced oil refining by at least 10% so far in 2026, 11 Russian financial institutions are preparing to liquidate and another 8 banking institutions cannot internally resolve their accumulated problems. Russia’s federal budget deficit is already almost $80 billion in the first five months of 2026. Russian Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov also publicly conceded labour shortages and sanctions are now forcing downward GDP revisions.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
The Times/YouGov: Burnham 59%, Starmer 37% in Head-to-Head Members’ Ballot
The Times leads its Tuesday front page with a YouGov poll showing Andy Burnham would defeat Sir Keir Starmer 59% to 37% in a head-to-head ballot of Labour Party members, the BBC Newspaper Review reports. The poll lands as the cabinet’s public ring-fence around the Prime Minister starts to look operational rather than substantive: Sir Keir’s “I won’t walk away” leads the Daily Mirror’s front page; the Daily Telegraph runs “Starmer sabotages Burnham on Brexit”; the Daily Mail leads with “Slippery Burnham’s two u-turns in one day” under a “Labour’s civil war” banner; the Guardian: “Burnham: Labour must change to regain trust”.
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Burnham Tries to Ease Markets; Won’t “Rip Up Fiscal Rules”
With Andy Burnham’s pledge to “reassure markets he will not rip up the UK’s fiscal rules”, even while vowing to “reverse privatisation and austerity”. The paper reports that Burnham’s remarks were specifically designed to “reassure investors that he would not embark on irresponsible borrowing policies” ahead of the Makerfield selection. Sterling firmed modestly into the Tuesday open at $1.3310 and ten-year gilt yields softened from Friday’s 5.18% closing peak; the FT’s framing is that the political risk premium is now coming off, but the structural wartime-fiscal premium remains.
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“Starmer Sabotages Burnham” on Brexit; Rejoin Prospect Raised
The Daily Telegraph leads Tuesday with “Starmer sabotages Burnham on Brexit”. The paper writes that Sir Keir Starmer “has raised the prospect of rejoining the EU” while Burnham “seeks to keep Leave voters on side”, despite Burnham’s previous explicit desire to reverse the 2016 referendum. Sir Keir has been pursuing closer ties with the bloc but has stuck to Labour’s election manifesto pledges to “stay outside the EU”, with “no return to the single market, the customs union, or freedom of movement”. The Telegraph framing brackets the Streeting-Burnham EU split with a now-strategic Number 10 reading.
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Mirror: Starmer’s “Defiant Message”; “I Won’t Walk Away”
The Daily Mirror leads Tuesday with “Starmer’s defiant message: I won’t walk away”, the BBC Newspaper Review reports, quoting Sir Keir as “defiant” and saying he “rejects call to set out departure timetable” despite pressure from Labour MPs and senior ministers. The Daily Mirror also embeds the now-viral “best of buddies” photograph of Alan Titchmarsh, David Beckham and King Charles III at the Chelsea Flower Show. The Times reports that Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy has floated lifting the age of criminal responsibility “from ten to as high as 14” in England and Wales, mirroring Scotland’s law where children cannot be charged before turning 12.
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i Paper: HS2 to Cost More than NASA’s Artemis Moon Mission
The i Paper leads Tuesday with Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander’s planned release today of a review on HS2 showing the “stripped back high-speed link” will become “the most expensive rail line in the world”, with delays and higher costs set to reach around £100 billion — more than NASA’s £79 billion projected cost for the Artemis programme to land astronauts on the Moon. The BBC’s Newspaper Review reports the Alexander announcement is timed to take a domestic-policy story into the Tuesday news cycle alongside the leadership question. The Daily Express separately reports that 66% of Britons want to keep the pension triple lock.