Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Details of the emerging US-Iran deal firmed up through the day. Two regional officials briefed on the negotiations said today the agreement includes a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the Strait of Hormuz reopens with no tolls and Iran clears the mines it laid; Iran would freely sell oil through sanctions waivers; and the US would lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran would commit never to pursue nuclear weapons and to negotiate the suspension of uranium enrichment and the removal of its highly enriched uranium stockpile during the 60-day window. But a senior Iranian source today denied Tehran had agreed to hand over its uranium — the central US demand — and an Iranian military spokesman said Iran will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz “even in the event of an agreement with the United States”.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio said today “significant progress, although not final progress, has been made” in the talks. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said: “We remain ready for talks, but the experience of past negotiations with the US forces us to exercise the utmost caution.” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi posted on social media: Iran is “seeking peace with strength, pursuing diplomacy with dignity and firmly defending the territorial integrity, independence and rights of our beloved Iran”. The Sunday political shows in the UK led with the Labour leadership question, with the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg airing at 09:00.
- If a final agreement is reached, US forces that moved to the area in recent months to support the assault on Iran would withdraw. President Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday that he will not sign any final agreement without conditions that Iran dismantle its entire nuclear programme and remove all enriched uranium from the country. Brent eased to $102.30 at Friday’s close, ten-year gilts at 5.02%; markets re-open Monday with the “largely negotiated” framework as the dominant variable for European and Asian energy pricing.
GEO Geopolitical
US-Iran Deal Details — 60-Day Hormuz Reopening, Sanctions Waivers, Uranium Dispute
Two regional officials briefed on the Pakistan-led negotiations said today the United States is close to a deal with Iran that would end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and see Iran give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Under the emerging agreement, the Strait of Hormuz would gradually reopen in parallel with the US ending its blockade of Iran’s ports. The US would allow Iran to sell oil through sanctions waivers, with sanctions relief and the release of Iran’s frozen funds negotiated during a 60-day time frame. The draft deal also includes an end to the war between Israel and Hezbollah and a commitment to non-interference in the domestic affairs of countries in the region.
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Iran Denies Uranium Handover; Military — “Iran Will Continue to Control” Strait
A senior Iranian source said today that Tehran has not agreed to hand over its uranium stockpile to the United States. An Iranian military spokesman stressed on X that Iran would continue to control the Strait of Hormuz even in the event of an agreement with the United States. IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported the potential agreement allocates 30 days for procedures related to the Strait of Hormuz and a 60-day period for nuclear talks, and that Iran has not yet accepted any actions on its nuclear programme. The Iranian counter-briefing today directly disputes the President Trump “largely negotiated” framing of Saturday night.
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Rubio — “Significant Progress, Not Final”; Pezeshkian Urges “Utmost Caution”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio struck a cooler tone today than the President had on Saturday night, saying: “Significant progress, although not final progress, has been made.” Rubio repeated the US position that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon and must turn over its highly enriched uranium, and the Strait of Hormuz must be opened. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, whose office released a statement today, said: “We remain ready for talks, but the experience of past negotiations with the US forces us to exercise the utmost caution.” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi posted on social media early Sunday that Iran is “seeking peace with strength, pursuing diplomacy with dignity and firmly defending the territorial integrity, independence and rights of our beloved Iran”.
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Pakistan’s Sharif and Munir Push Iran Toward Deal in Tehran Visit
Iran today hosted Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, who met with Iran’s political and military leadership and pushed for Tehran to agree to the proposed agreement. The Sharif-Munir Sunday visit follows Munir’s “short but highly productive” visit on Saturday and is the most senior Pakistani diplomatic deployment since the negotiating process began. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also spoke with European and regional counterparts and the United Nations Secretary General António Guterres today, seeking to defuse tensions.
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Iran “Stalling” to Normalise Hormuz Control; “Deal or Force” the Binary Choice
One of Iran’s primary negotiating objectives is to secure sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — an objective more important to Tehran than fee revenue from merchant vessels. Iran is likely stalling and delaying the negotiations process precisely because the protraction of the current situation serves Iran’s interests by letting Tehran normalise its de facto control of transit through the strait. The international community cannot “wait out” Iran’s control. The strait will not return to normal without either a deal that ends Iranian control or a US-led military operation that forces the strait open. Recognition of Iranian claims of sovereignty is both unacceptable and fails to accomplish a return to normal.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Sunday Political Shows — Leadership Question Dominates; Kuenssberg Airs 09:00
Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg aired at 09:00 on BBC One, with the Labour leadership question the dominant frame across all the morning political shows today. The previous week’s edition was explicitly titled “Can Starmer Survive?”. The 18 June Makerfield by-election is the operational test of whether Andy Burnham can convert his personal popularity into an MP seat and from there a leadership challenge; a Burnham loss would, on his own allies’ admission, end his ambitions.
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Burnham — “Great Resentment” About IHT; Care Levy to “Save NHS”
Andy Burnham used Friday’s Makerfield campaign launch to put the NHS firmly on the agenda. Burnham said: “There is a great resentment about inheritance tax — take that away and look at a care levy.” The Greater Manchester mayor said he thought the NHS was “almost being overwhelmed” by a “broken” care system. The IHT-to-social-care-levy idea picks up a long-running social-policy thread: think tanks across the political spectrum have argued for hypothecating funds for adult social care, but no major UK party has previously made an explicit pledge. Burnham is the first senior Labour figure with realistic leadership prospects to put it formally on the table.
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“Operation Save Starmer” — Economy + Inflation Tailwinds; Bank Rates on Downward Path
Inside Downing Street, Starmer’s allies now believe they can “Keep Keir In”. New figures show the economy growing above expectations, inflation has slowed to 2.8% — the lowest level in over a year — and Rachel Reeves’s preferred environment of lower interest rates to protect mortgage holders is likely to remain the Bank of England’s stance with unemployment beginning to rise. Reeves’s cost-of-living package this week — free bus travel for children, the cancellation of a planned 5p rise in fuel duty, a VAT cut from 20% to 5% on summer attraction tickets, 100 food-tariff removals, and a £120m support package for the ceramics industry — is the substantive policy spine of the Prime Minister’s argument that the hard decisions are bearing fruit.
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BBC Radio Manchester — Makerfield Candidates Series Underway
BBC Radio Manchester is running a series of interviews this week with candidates for the 18 June Makerfield by-election. Andy Burnham took questions from presenter Mike Sweeney and audience members on Wednesday; Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon and Liberal Democrat Stockport councillor Jake Austin appear in the same series later in the week. The format — candidates fielding live audience questions — is the most direct constituency-level testing of campaign positioning to date. The writ for the by-election was moved by the Commons speaker after Josh Simons’s resignation; polling day is 21-27 days from the writ.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- President Donald Trump said overnight that a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal with Iran — including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — has been “largely negotiated”. Iran disputes the strait claim. Iran’s Fars news agency said early Sunday that the agreement would allow Iran to manage the Strait of Hormuz, calling Trump’s reopening assertion “inconsistent with reality”. Iran and Pakistan submitted a revised proposal to Washington on Saturday; a formal US response is expected today. Two Pakistani sources described the deal being negotiated as “fairly comprehensive to terminate the war”.
- Andy Burnham used his Makerfield campaign launch on Friday to say he would look at Wes Streeting’s proposal for a wealth tax and suggested inheritance tax could be abolished and replaced with a social care levy paid to fund improvement in the sector. Burnham’s allies suggest Ed Miliband as his pick for chancellor. Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s allies are lobbying Labour MPs in defence of her job — warning Miliband “would not be trusted by the bond markets”. The leadership-and-chancellor question now defines the next four weeks of UK politics ahead of the 18 June Makerfield vote.
- The proposed Iran framework would unfold in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the Hormuz crisis and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement. Two-month negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme would follow. The Strait of Hormuz would be reopened and the US would end its blockade of Iranian ports. Brent eased to $102.30 at Friday’s close, ten-year gilts at 5.02%; the operational variable for Monday’s European open is whether Washington accepts the proposal today.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump — Iran Deal “Largely Negotiated”; Hormuz Reopening Claimed
President Donald Trump said on Saturday night that a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal with Iran has been “largely negotiated”, with details to be unveiled soon. “Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform. Trump posted that the emerging agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He said he had spoken with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain, and separately with Israel. The Gulf and regional leaders encouraged Trump to agree to the emerging framework.
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Iran’s Fars — Trump’s Hormuz Reopening Claim “Inconsistent With Reality”
Iran’s Fars news agency, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, reported early on Sunday that the emerging agreement would allow Iran to manage the Strait of Hormuz, and that Trump’s assertion the strait would be reopened was “inconsistent with reality”. Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said on Saturday that the strait “does not concern” the United States and that Iran and Oman should define a mechanism for the waterway as coastal states. Tasnim News Agency, also IRGC-affiliated, reported that Iran has demanded the strait not return to its pre-war mechanism and “legal regime”, and that negotiations will not proceed while the US naval blockade remains in place.
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Iran and Pakistan Submit Revised Proposal; US Response Expected Today
Iran and Pakistan submitted a revised proposal to the United States late on Saturday to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, two Pakistani sources familiar with the negotiations said. A US response is expected today. “The deal is fairly comprehensive,” a Pakistani official involved in the negotiations said. “It is never over till it is done.” Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir left Tehran on Saturday after talks with Iran’s top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The Pakistan military statement on Saturday described the visit as “short but highly productive” with “encouraging progress” towards a final understanding.
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Three-Stage Framework — End War, Resolve Hormuz, 30-Day Window
The proposed framework would unfold in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement, which can be extended. A two-month negotiation track on Iran’s nuclear programme would follow the war-ending declaration. Iran has demanded an end to the US blockade of Iranian ports, the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil sales, the release of frozen funds and supervision of the strait. If the US and Iran agree, the memorandum would lead to further talks after the Eid holiday ends on Friday.
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Iran’s Counterproposal Frontloads Demands; “Regime Believes It Is Winning”
Iran’s latest counterproposal frontloads its key demands on the withdrawal of “a US threat to Iran”, financial relief, and Iran’s “right” to manage the Strait of Hormuz, while attempting to delay discussion of Iran’s nuclear programme. The proposal indicates the Iranian regime believes it is winning the war and is negotiating from a position of strength. Iranian officials continue to emphasise Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz as the key sticking point. Iran has demanded an end to the US naval blockade and said negotiations will not proceed while the blockade remains in place.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham — Open to Wealth Tax; Abolish IHT, Replace with Social Care Levy
Andy Burnham used Friday’s Makerfield campaign launch to say he would look at proposals from Wes Streeting, the former health secretary, for a wealth tax. Burnham also suggested that inheritance tax could be abolished and replaced with a social care levy paid to fund improvement in the sector. The proposals position the Burnham leadership pitch materially to the left of the 2024 Starmer-Reeves prospectus: alongside his earlier commitments to proportional representation, council tax reform, rail renationalisation and more council houses, the Burnham platform now has a substantive fiscal architecture distinct from the current government.
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Reeves Rearguard Continues — Allies Warn Bond Markets Reject Miliband
Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s backbench-lobbying push continues this weekend. Reeves has told friends she would like to stay in the chancellorship even under a new prime minister, and her allies are urging MPs to back her if Sir Keir Starmer is replaced later this year. “The biggest fear for the bond markets and the unions is Ed Miliband,” one Labour MP close to Reeves said. “I am concerned that we may lose everything if a new leader sacrifices the chancellor for promises and new alliances they are currently forging with MPs who fancy the job for themselves.” Friends of Reeves believe there is a world in which she survives the transition to a Burnham premiership precisely because it would reassure the markets.
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“Operation Save Starmer” — Burnham Not “Nailed On”; Streeting Failed to Get Numbers
Inside Downing Street, Starmer’s allies now believe they can “Keep Keir In”. On Starmer’s reckoning, as one ally put it, Burnham is far from “nailed on” in Makerfield; and Wes Streeting will have a struggle to get back into the leadership race on favourable terms, having resigned from cabinet only to fail to secure “the numbers”. The Prime Minister broke this week with his aloof communications style by walking across Downing Street to chat directly to the press, and joked publicly about his tongue slip in the Commons about a “North Korea trade deal” (he meant South Korea).
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Sunday Politics — “Can Starmer Survive?” Question Dominates Morning Shows
The Sunday morning political shows today are dominated by the leadership question, with the previous week’s edition of the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg explicitly titled “Can Starmer Survive?”. The Makerfield by-election on 18 June is the operational testing ground: a Burnham win is widely seen as the launch pad for a formal leadership challenge; a Burnham loss would, on his allies’ own admission, end his ambitions. Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon — a local plumber who came within 5,399 votes of Josh Simons in 2024 — is the operational test of whether Labour’s migration tightening and Burnham’s personal pull are enough to check Reform’s advance into traditional Labour territory.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir concluded a “short but highly productive” visit to Tehran on Saturday, Pakistan’s military said, with “encouraging progress” towards a final understanding. But Iran’s top negotiator, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, told Munir Iran “will not compromise on national rights” and called the United States “not an honest party”. Qalibaf warned Iran’s armed forces had “rebuilt their capabilities during the ceasefire” and if Washington “foolishly restarts the war”, the consequences would be “more forceful and bitter” than at the start. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran is in the “final stages of drafting a framework” with a 30-to-60-day timeline for memorandum-of-understanding details — but “deep and significant” disagreements remain.
- Andy Burnham’s first weekend of Makerfield campaigning has begun. Wes Streeting, who resigned from the Cabinet earlier this month, said in an interview in an interview overnight he had “the numbers including ministers” to launch a leadership bid against Sir Keir Starmer but held off “to give Andy Burnham the chance” to fight Makerfield. “If I’d rushed ahead and triggered a leadership contest before Andy Burnham had the chance to come back, people would have just said I was trying to pull a fast one,” Streeting said in an interview. Streeting also unveiled his “first campaign pledges”: fund the full restoration of Sure Start, paid for by a wealth tax.
- Iran has launched an “information operation” to frame its protection-racket scheme in the Strait of Hormuz as a legitimate maritime security service. Vessels dealing with Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority have sometimes received payment requests of up to $2 million for safe passage; Reuters reports most ships pay around $150,000. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have jointly written to the International Maritime Organization warning that any recognition of Iran’s proposed transit rules “would set a dangerous precedent”. Brent eased to $102.30 at Friday’s close, ten-year gilts at 5.02%; markets re-open Monday with Iran-Pakistan diplomacy as the operational variable.
GEO Geopolitical
Qalibaf to Munir — “Will Not Compromise”; US “Not Honest Party”
Iran’s top negotiator, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, told Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir during talks in Tehran on Saturday that the United States was “not an honest party” in negotiations to end the war and that Iran “would not compromise on its national rights”. Qalibaf said Iran would pursue its “legitimate rights”, both on the battlefield and through diplomacy, but added it could not trust “a party that has no honesty at all”. He warned that Iran’s armed forces had “rebuilt their capabilities during the ceasefire” and if the United States “foolishly restarts the war”, the consequences would be “more forceful and bitter” than at the start of the conflict.
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Pakistan Army “Encouraging Progress”; Baghaei — Framework in 30-60 Days
Pakistan’s military said in a statement on Saturday that Field Marshal Munir had concluded a “short but highly productive” official visit to Iran, during which “encouraging progress” was made towards reaching a final understanding. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told state broadcaster IRIB on Saturday that Tehran was in the “final stages of drafting a framework for a deal to end the war with the US”: “Within a reasonable period of 30 to 60 days, the details of these points will be discussed, and a final agreement will ultimately be concluded. We are currently in the process of finalising these memoranda of understanding.” But Baghaei also said Munir’s visit “does not mean we have reached a turning point or a decisive situation”, adding that “deep and significant” disagreements remained.
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Iran “Information Operation”; Vessels Paying $150K-$2M for Hormuz Transit
Iran has launched an information operation to frame its protection racket in the Strait of Hormuz as a legitimate maritime security service. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy claimed on 22 May that 35 vessels transited the strait in the past 24 hours after obtaining Iranian “permission” and “security”. this “security” is “effectively protection from attacks by Iranian forces, which is the only force that has threatened shipping in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026.” Bloomberg reports vessels dealing with Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority have sometimes received payment requests of up to $2 million for safe passage; Reuters reports most ships pay around $150,000.
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Five Gulf States Joint IMO Statement; “Dangerous Precedent”
Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have jointly written in a statement to the International Maritime Organization that Iran appears to be attempting “to control traffic” through the Strait of Hormuz by forcing vessels to use a route within its territorial waters. The statement warned that any recognition of Iran’s proposed route or the Persian Gulf Strait Authority “would set a dangerous precedent”. “The war cannot end in a way that secures US and allied interests until Iran abandons its effort to control the strait. Recognition or compliance with Iranian transit rules would allow the regime to achieve de facto control over the strait.”
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France Drafts UNSC Resolution for International Hormuz Mission
France has drafted a United Nations Security Council resolution proposing an international mission to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. A competing US-Bahraini proposal faces resistance from Russia and China, which have signalled they may veto the measure. The dispute over control of the strategic waterway has become a key obstacle in efforts to end the US-Israeli war on Iran amid rising oil prices and shipping disruptions. Iran said Saturday that fees and tolls linked to transit through the Strait of Hormuz are part of a “security service” provided to vessels crossing the strategic waterway, as Tehran rejects US threats of escalation and asserts control under what it calls a “new reality”.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
First Weekend of Makerfield Campaigning Begins
The first weekend of campaigning is set to get under way in Makerfield, in a by-election that Andy Burnham has said could “change Labour”. Burnham, who is viewed as a challenger to Sir Keir Starmer in a potential Labour leadership race, launched his by-election campaign on Friday and promised he was not offering “more of the same”. He faces Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon — a plumber who said he is “ready to take on the King of the North” in a reference to Burnham’s nickname — and Liberal Democrat Stockport councillor Jake Austin. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage joined Kenyon on the campaign trail earlier this week and described the by-election as a “David versus Goliath battle”.
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Streeting’s Mirror Interview — “Numbers Including Ministers”
Wes Streeting, who resigned from the Cabinet earlier this month, said in an interview in an interview overnight that he had “the numbers including ministers” to launch a leadership bid against Sir Keir Starmer but held off “to give Andy Burnham the chance” to fight the Makerfield by-election. “If I’d rushed ahead and triggered a leadership contest before Andy Burnham had the chance to come back, people would have just said I was trying to pull a fast one, trying to get ahead of the competition,” Streeting said. He also unveiled his “first campaign pledges”: fund the full restoration of Sure Start, paid for by a wealth tax.
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Burnham — PR + Council Tax Reform; “Honour Manifestos”
Andy Burnham used the launch of his Makerfield campaign to commit publicly for the first time to wanting a proportional representation pledge in the next Labour manifesto, and to back council tax reform. Asked about the 2024 manifesto, Burnham said: “I think you’ve got to honour manifestos” — appearing to rule out breaking promises Labour made at the general election. He said there is “space to be more radical” within Labour’s 2024 manifesto, including building more council houses and with rail renationalisation.
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Starmer Says “100% Behind” Burnham; Will Campaign in Makerfield
Sir Keir Starmer said on Thursday he would campaign personally in the Makerfield by-election for Andy Burnham. “I want to be part of that, of course I do,” Starmer told reporters. “I’ve said to the whole Labour movement that I want everybody to be involved in the campaign, whatever other discussions are going on. It’s really important — that’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform.” The by-election takes place on 18 June.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir arrived in Tehran on Friday to join Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who had met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi twice in two days. A Qatari negotiating team is also in Tehran in coordination with the United States; Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Sweden that Pakistan remains the “primary interlocutor”. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei tempered expectations: “deep and extensive differences remain… we cannot necessarily say we have reached a point where a deal is near.” A third Qatari LNG tanker (Al Sahla) is transiting the Strait of Hormuz to China.
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves has launched a rearguard action to save her job this morning, telling friends she would like to stay even under a new prime minister. Her supporters are now actively lobbying Labour MPs — warning that Burnham’s reported preferred chancellor pick, Ed Miliband, “would not be trusted by the bond markets”. The chancellor question is now, “almost as important as that for prime minister”. Brent has eased further to $102.30; ten-year gilts at 5.02%, down sixteen basis points from Friday a week ago.
- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said on 22 May that 35 vessels have now transited the Strait of Hormuz after obtaining Iranian “permits” and “security” — framed by ISW as the operational rollout of the “mafia-esque protection racket”. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the International Maritime Organization have all rejected Iran’s claim that the strait is in its territorial waters. The United Nations nuclear non-proliferation treaty review conference concluded last night without agreement after four weeks.
GEO Geopolitical
Pakistan Defence Chief Munir Arrives Tehran; Mediation Enters Decisive Phase
Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces, Field Marshal Asim Munir, arrived in Tehran on Friday to join Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who had met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi twice in two days. Munir was at the centre of the only direct US-Iran negotiations in April, hosting Vice President JD Vance in Islamabad. A Qatari negotiating team also arrived in Tehran on Friday in coordination with the United States.
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Iran’s Baghaei — “Deep and Extensive Differences Remain”; Hopes Tempered
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei tempered expectations of a breakthrough on Friday, saying that “deep and extensive” differences remain between Washington and Tehran. “We cannot necessarily say we have reached a point where a deal is near,” Baghaei said, according to Iran’s state news agency IRNA. The Qatari delegation was holding talks with Foreign Minister Araghchi, Baghaei confirmed, while Pakistan remained the main mediator. Baghaei added that the focus of the current negotiations was ending the war and that nuclear details were “not being discussed at this stage” — consistent with Iran’s position that war-end guarantees must precede detailed nuclear talks.
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IRGC Says 35 Vessels Obtained “Permits”; Gulf States + IMO Reject
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said on Friday that 35 vessels have transited the Strait of Hormuz after obtaining Iranian “permits” and “security”. the “security” as “effectively protection from attacks by Iranian forces, which is the only force that has threatened shipping in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026”. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the International Maritime Organization have all formally rejected Iran’s claim that the strait is in its territorial waters. “The war cannot end in a way that secures US and allied interests until Iran abandons its effort to control the strait.”
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UN Non-Proliferation Treaty Conference Concludes Without Agreement
The United Nations nuclear non-proliferation treaty review conference concluded last night after four weeks without an agreement, the Associated Press reports, with the United States and Iran on opposite sides throughout. The US called Iran a “prolific violator of the treaty” and said Tehran spent the conference “evading accountability for its grotesque violations”. Iran accused Washington and its allies of an “implacable campaign” to legitimise “illegal attacks” against the country and its nuclear facilities. The conference, which began on 27 April, ran in parallel to the Pakistani-mediated US-Iran direct negotiating track.
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Third Qatari LNG Tanker Through Hormuz to China; First to Beijing-Direct
A third Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker, the Al Sahla (211,842 cubic metres), is transiting the Strait of Hormuz and heading to China, the first material commercial movement to China direct since the war began. The vessel left Ras Laffan and is expected to arrive at China’s Tianjin LNG terminal on 14 June. The previous two Qatari LNG tankers to make it through the strait since the US-Israeli airstrikes unleashed the war at the end of February were sold by Qatar to Pakistan under a government-to-government deal. Shipments “continue to be erratic”.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Reeves Rearguard; Allies Warn Bond Markets Would Reject Miliband
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has launched a rearguard action to save her job this morning, telling friends she would like to stay in the post even under a new prime minister. Her supporters have been urging MPs to back her if Sir Keir Starmer is replaced later this year, saying she is the only candidate who can safeguard the country’s finances. Reports have suggested Andy Burnham is considering appointing Energy Secretary Ed Miliband as chancellor if he makes it to No 10. Reeves’ allies are warning that Miliband “would not be trusted by the bond markets, which set the government’s borrowing costs”. One Labour insider: “The fight over who gets to be chancellor is almost as important as that for prime minister.”
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Burnham “Change By-election”; Thinly Veiled No 10 Pitch
Andy Burnham formally launched his Makerfield by-election campaign in Ashton-in-Makerfield on Friday with what the Guardian described as “a barely coded pitch for Downing Street”, saying a vote for him would be “a vote to change Labour”. Burnham: “This is a change by-election. British politics needs to change its tired old script.” And: “I’m prepared to take that fight as high as I can go. I want to play whatever part I can in changing this party back to the party here people used to know.” In a question-and-answer session, Burnham committed for the first time to a specific electoral-reform pledge: he would want a commitment in the next Labour manifesto to introduce a proportional voting system.
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Burnham — Migration “Needs to Fall Further”; Doorstep Concerns
At Friday’s Makerfield campaign launch, Andy Burnham said that UK net migration “needs to fall further”, after Office for National Statistics data on Thursday showed net migration had almost halved to 171,000 in 2025. People on the doorstep, Burnham said, have “raised their concerns about immigration” with him. The Greater Manchester mayor said the latest figures show the “trend is significantly down” but added the government must “get the balance right” on its plans to make it harder for migrants to settle permanently in the UK. The Home Office has forecast around 1.6 million people could settle in the UK between 2026 and 2030 if no further changes are made.
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Starmer Says “100% Behind” Burnham; Will Campaign in Makerfield
Sir Keir Starmer told reporters on Thursday he would campaign personally in the Makerfield by-election for Andy Burnham. “I want to be part of that, of course I do,” the Prime Minister said. “I’ve said to the whole Labour movement that I want everybody to be involved in the campaign, whatever other discussions are going on. It’s really important — that’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform.” Asked by reporters whether Burnham would want Starmer’s help, Burnham at his Friday launch dodged the question, telling reporters only that “anyone who agrees with me would be welcome”.
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Mahmood’s Migration “Success Story”; Burnham “Rowed Back”
The Times editorial framed the 171,000 net-migration figure as Labour’s “immigration success story” on Thursday evening — Mahmood’s skills-based programme vindicated after Mahmood “came bottom in a poll of Labour members testing the popularity of cabinet ministers” last month. The Times: “Mr Burnham, who initially echoed Ms Rayner’s sentiments, has rowed back. He appears to realise that the only way to defeat Reform UK in Makerfield, and across the country, is to recognise the visceral power of immigration on the doorstep.” The detoxification framing — if it holds — could check the Reform UK advance into Labour territory.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran today for a second round of mediation talks. A Qatari negotiating team also arrived in Tehran. A third Qatari LNG tanker (Al Sahla) is transiting the Strait of Hormuz on its way to China. Pakistan and Qatar have drafted a revised memo to bridge US-Iran gaps; Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are supporting the effort.
- Andy Burnham formally launched his Makerfield by-election campaign in Ashton-in-Makerfield today — the Guardian frames it as a “thinly veiled pitch for No 10”. Burnham: “This is a change by-election. British politics needs to change its tired old script… I’m prepared to take that fight as high as I can go.” He committed publicly for the first time to wanting a proportional representation pledge in the next Labour manifesto. Sir Keir Starmer said yesterday he would “100% behind” the Labour candidate; The Times editorial today vindicates Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s migration programme as Labour’s “immigration success story”.
- Ukrainian forces struck Russia’s Syzran Oil Refinery in Samara Oblast yesterday — Rosneft’s plant processing 7-8 million tons of oil per year. Russia and Belarus concluded their joint nuclear-weapons exercise today, involving more than 64,000 personnel and reportedly involving the majority of Russia’s estimated 320 ICBM launchers. Brent has eased further to $102.80; ten-year gilts at 5.02%, off Friday’s 5.18% peak by 16 basis points.
GEO Geopolitical
Pakistan’s Naqvi Meets Araghchi Again in Tehran; Framework Talks
Pakistan’s Interior Minister Syed Mohsin Naqvi met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran on Friday for a second round of mediation talks aimed at narrowing the gap between Iran and the United States. The discussions focused on developing a framework to resolve the substantive differences; Naqvi delivered the latest US message to the Iranian side two days ago. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said yesterday there were “some good signs” in the talks but that he did not want to be overly optimistic. A senior Iranian source said that while the two sides’ positions have moved closer, uranium enrichment and Hormuz controls remain the largest remaining sticking points.
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Third Qatari LNG Tanker Through Hormuz to China; Al Sahla En Route
A third Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker is transiting the Strait of Hormuz today and heading to China, as a Qatari negotiating team arrived in Tehran to try to help secure a deal to end the war with Iran. The vessel, Al Sahla, with a capacity of 211,842 cubic metres, left Ras Laffan and is expected to arrive at China’s Tianjin LNG terminal on 14 June. The previous two Qatari LNG tankers to make it through the strait since the US-Israeli airstrikes unleashed the Iran war at the end of February were sold by Qatar to Pakistan under a government-to-government deal, according to two people familiar with the matter.
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Pakistan-Qatar Revised Memo; Iran-Oman Discussing Permanent Hormuz Toll
Iran has not yet submitted a response to the latest US proposal as multiple mediators continue to narrow gaps. Pakistan and Qatar have drafted a revised memo to bridge US-Iran gaps; Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are supporting the effort. Iranian media said the proposal has narrowed some gaps “to some extent”, but that further progress depends on whether the United States moves away from military threats. Separately, Iranian Ambassador to France Mohammad Amin Nejad said on 21 May that Iran and Oman are discussing a permanent toll system to formalise Iranian control over maritime traffic through the strait.
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Khamenei Directive Hardens Tehran’s Negotiating Position
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s directive yesterday that Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile “should not leave the country” continues to harden Tehran’s negotiating position into Friday. Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday: “We will get it. We don’t need it, we don’t want it. We’ll probably destroy it after we get it.” He also rejected Iran’s proposed Strait of Hormuz transit fees with “It’s an international waterway.” A senior Iranian source said one technical pathway remains open: in-country dilution of the stockpile under IAEA supervision. The IAEA estimates Iran had 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to 60% at the start of the June 2025 war.
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Ukraine Strikes Syzran Refinery; Russia-Belarus Nuclear Exercise Concludes
Ukrainian forces struck the Syzran Oil Refinery in Samara Oblast yesterday. The Rosneft-owned plant has a processing capacity of seven to eight million tons of oil per year and produces gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation kerosene and bitumen. Russia and Belarus today concluded a joint nuclear-weapons exercise that began on 19 May, involving more than 64,000 personnel and over 7,800 pieces of military equipment, including over 200 missile launchers and likely the majority of Russia’s estimated 320 ICBM launchers, according to the Russian Ministry of Defence and BBC Russian Service analysis.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham “Change By-election”; Thinly Veiled Pitch for No 10
Andy Burnham formally launched his Makerfield by-election campaign today with what the Guardian describes as “a barely coded pitch for Downing Street”, saying a vote for him would be “a vote to change Labour”. Speaking at a community sports club car park in Ashton-in-Makerfield, near Wigan, Burnham said: “This is a change by-election. British politics needs to change its tired old script and the people of Makerfield are helping us write one.” And: “I’m prepared to take that fight as high as I can go. I want to play whatever part I can in changing this party back to the party here people used to know, and the party that is solidly on the side of working-class community.”
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Burnham — “Trend Significantly Down”; Migration “Needs to Fall Further”
At today’s Makerfield campaign launch, Andy Burnham said that UK net migration “needs to fall further”, after Office for National Statistics data on Thursday showed net migration had almost halved to 171,000 in 2025. People on the doorstep, Burnham said, have “raised their concerns about immigration” with him. The Greater Manchester mayor said the latest figures show the “trend is significantly down” but added the government must “get the balance right” on its plans to make it harder for migrants to settle permanently in the UK. The Home Office has forecast around 1.6 million people could settle in the UK between 2026 and 2030 if no further changes are made.
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The Times Editorial: Mahmood’s Migration “Success Story”; Burnham “Rowed Back”
The Times editorial this evening describes Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s migration programme as “one of [the government’s] few success stories”: the 171,000 net-migration figure for 2025 is the lowest since 2012. The drop, the paper argues, reflects the closure of the visa route for the dependants of students and the introduction of tougher minimum requirements for skilled work visas. The Times: “Mr Burnham, who initially echoed Ms Rayner’s sentiments, has rowed back. He appears to realise that the only way to defeat Reform UK in Makerfield, and across the country, is to recognise the visceral power of immigration on the doorstep.”
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Starmer Says “100% Behind” Burnham; Will Campaign in Makerfield
Sir Keir Starmer told reporters on a visit to Essex yesterday he would “100% behind” Labour’s Makerfield candidate — Andy Burnham — and would personally campaign in the by-election on 18 June. “I want to be part of that, of course I do,” the Prime Minister said. “I’ve said to the whole Labour movement that I want everybody to be involved in the campaign, whatever other discussions are going on. It’s really important — that’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform.” A spokesperson for Burnham responded: “Anyone who wants to embrace Andy’s campaign message is welcome on the campaign.” Burnham’s message, has been “different”.
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Burnham Backs Mahmood Immigration Changes; Soft-Left Allies Run Campaign
Andy Burnham is backing Shabana Mahmood’s controversial changes to the immigration system, his allies said in an interview on Wednesday, in a blow to those in Labour who hoped to soften them. Those close to Burnham’s campaign say he will not seek to dilute the government’s migration curbs, which include ending the right to permanent refugee status. “Andy is fighting the most important by-election in half a century in the Labour-held seat with the largest Reform vote in the country,” a source close to the campaign said in an interview. “Immigration is the second most important issue there. He must show decisive leadership on this and reframe but back the reforms.”
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium must remain inside the country. President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday that the United States “will get” the stockpile anyway and would “probably destroy it” afterwards; he also rejected Iran’s proposed Strait of Hormuz transit fees with “It’s an international waterway.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters the tolls would “make a diplomatic deal unfeasible” but said there were “some good signs”. Brent has eased further to $103.60.
- UK net migration fell sharply to 171,000 last year, the lowest level since the COVID pandemic and the lowest non-pandemic figure since 2012. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the data showed his government was “delivering” on its promise to regain control of UK borders, adding: “I know there’s more to do.” Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham said today the migration trend is “significantly down” but “needs to fall further” — bracketing the Burnham Makerfield campaign with Home Office Shabana Mahmood’s skills-based migration programme.
- The London mayor Sadiq Khan has blocked a £50 million Met Police-Palantir AI contract, citing a “clear and serious breach” of procurement rules. Palantir’s UK head Louis Mosley hit back at the mayor today, accusing him of “putting politics above public safety”. The block is the largest UK police rejection of US AI procurement to date and creates a substantive policy split inside Labour over Palantir’s expanding NHS and policing footprint.
GEO Geopolitical
Khamenei Directive; Uranium “Should Not Leave the Country”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium “should not leave the country” on Thursday citing two senior Iranian sources, hardening Tehran’s stance on one of the central US demands in the peace talks. “The Supreme Leader’s directive, and the consensus within the establishment, is that the stockpile of enriched uranium should not leave the country,” one of the sources said. Iran’s top officials believe that sending the material abroad would leave the country “more vulnerable to future attacks by the United States and Israel”. Israeli officials have separately said that Trump has assured Israel that the stockpile “will be sent out of Iran” — an assurance now in direct contradiction with the Khamenei directive.
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Trump “We Will Get It”; Hormuz “International Waterway”
President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday that the United States “will get” Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium — in direct response to the Khamenei directive. “We will get it. We don’t need it, we don’t want it. We’ll probably destroy it after we get it, but we’re not going to let them have it,” Trump said. He separately rejected Iran’s proposed Strait of Hormuz transit fees: “We want it open, we want it free. We don’t want tolls. It’s an international waterway.” Trump remains ready to resume strikes “if we don’t get the right answers” from Iran’s leadership.
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Rubio “Hormuz Tolls Make Deal Unfeasible”; “Completely Illegal”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Thursday that a diplomatic deal between the United States and Iran would be “unfeasible” if Tehran implemented a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz. “No one in the world is in favour of the tolling system. It can’t happen. It would be unacceptable. It would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible if they were to continue to pursue that. So it’s a threat to the world if they were trying to do that, and it’s completely illegal,” Rubio said. He acknowledged there had been “some progress” in talks with Tehran but said Washington was dealing with “a system that itself is a little fractured”. “There’s some good signs… I don’t want to be overly optimistic.”
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Iran “Mafia-Esque Protection Racket”; $150,000 Per-Transit Fee
The Institute for the Study of War continues to assess that Iran is using the ceasefire to “normalize Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz” via a multi-tiered transit-fee scheme run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Russia and China sit at the top tier as strategic partners; India and Pakistan operate under negotiated bilateral agreements; other states are case-by-case; vessels linked to Iranian adversaries are denied access; ships without a bilateral framework pay approximately $150,000 per transit. the fees as “part of a mafia-esque protection racket in which the vessels pay Iran so that the Iranian navy can ‘secure’ the vessels against an attack by the Iranian navy or Iranian shore-based missiles and drones”.
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India Won’t Send More Tankers Until 13 Stranded Ships Return
India’s government wants to secure the return of its ships stranded in the Gulf before sending any vessels back to load fuel. India will send vessels to the west of the Strait of Hormuz “whenever the situation becomes conducive”, the official added. Thirteen Indian-flagged vessels and one Indian-owned vessel are still stuck on the west side of the strait. Thirteen vessels loaded with energy cargoes — mostly liquefied petroleum gas, used for cooking in India — have so far transited out of the strait since its effective closure on 28 February.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
UK Net Migration 171,000; Lowest Non-Pandemic Figure Since 2012
UK net migration fell to 171,000 in 2025 — the lowest level since the COVID pandemic and the lowest non-pandemic figure since 2012 — according to Office for National Statistics data released on Thursday. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the data showed his government was “delivering”, adding: “I know there’s more to do, we’re introducing a skills-based migration system that rewards contribution and ends our reliance on cheap overseas workers.” The Home Office said on X: “We are ending Britain’s reliance on overseas labour, ensuring migrants contribute more than they take and are increasing the removal of illegal migrants and foreign criminals.”
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Burnham (BBC): Net Migration “Needs to Fall Further”; Trend “Significantly Down”
Andy Burnham said today that UK net migration “needs to fall further”, after Home Office figures showed it had almost halved since 2024. The Greater Manchester mayor said the latest figures — net migration of 171,000 in 2025 — show the “trend is significantly down”. The intervention firmly aligns Burnham with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s skills-based crackdown ahead of his 18 June Makerfield by-election, where Reform UK’s “Brexit betrayal” attack line will test his migration positioning directly. The Home Office has forecast that around 1.6 million people could settle in the UK between 2026 and 2030 if no further changes are made.
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Khan Blocks Met-Palantir £50m; “Clear and Serious Breach”
London mayor Sadiq Khan has blocked a £50 million contract between the Metropolitan Police and the controversial US tech company Palantir, with City Hall citing a “clear and serious breach” of procurement rules. Scotland Yard had been in talks to use Palantir’s AI technology to automate intelligence analysis in criminal investigations. The Mayor’s Office for Policing and Crime withheld approval, saying Scotland Yard had seriously engaged with only one potential supplier and that the Met risked becoming locked into Palantir’s technology. Mopac said the proposed deal had not “ensured or demonstrated value for money”.
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Palantir Hits Back; Accuses Khan of “Politics Above Public Safety”
Palantir has accused Sir Sadiq Khan of “putting politics above public safety” after the London mayor blocked its £50 million Met Police contract. Louis Mosley, who heads Palantir in the UK and Europe, accused Khan of politicising procurement: “What Londoners value is not being mugged, not being raped by a serving police officer.” The block has created tensions inside Labour over the party’s broader engagement with the Palantir AI/data platform. Scotland Yard described the move as “disappointing”, adding that without new technology its ability to keep London safe would be compromised.
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Andrew Trade Envoy Files Released; Queen “Very Keen”
Newly released government files suggest the late Queen Elizabeth II was “very keen” for Prince Andrew to be made a UK trade envoy. The documents, released yesterday, highlight the role of the Queen and show “no evidence” of a formal vetting process around the appointment. The files release lands alongside continuing police interest in Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor; the BBC notes the contemporary political context of the cabinet-level interest in how the appointment was made. The Aston Villa Europa League victory bus parade in Birmingham — the headline counter-news image of the day — ran in parallel through the late-Thursday news cycle.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered a cost-of-living statement to the Commons today: a 10p increase in the tax-free mileage rate to 55p (backdated to April, the first rise in fifteen years), VAT on summer-attraction tickets cut to 5%, tariffs scrapped on 100 imported food items, free child bus travel through the summer holidays, and a £120 million package for the Stoke-on-Trent ceramics industry — politically targeted at the Labour-Reform Wigan-style battleground there. The supermarket food-price cap and energy-bill cap that had been floated were both quietly absent. The Independent’s David Maddox: this was “proof of life for a government which many think is dead”.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium must remain inside Iran, rather than being transferred abroad. Khamenei also said abandoning uranium enrichment would be “100% against the country’s national interest”. The directive directly rejects the central US negotiating demand and contradicts even the conditional dilution-and-send-to-Russia proposal Iran floated this week. Trump and Vance’s Tuesday optimism reads materially differently this evening; Brent eased further to $104.40 nonetheless.
- Iran is using the ceasefire to run a “mafia-esque protection racket” over the Strait of Hormuz, charging vessels without a bilateral agreement around $150,000 a transit to be “secured” against attacks by the Iranian navy itself. Sixteen vessels took Iran’s route through the strait in the past twenty-four hours. The normalisation strategy is designed to gradually rebuild near pre-war traffic flows before the European-led NATO escort framework can be activated in July — deliberately weakening the case for it.
GEO Geopolitical
Khamenei: Uranium Must Stay in Iran; Abandoning Enrichment “100% Against Interests”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium must remain inside Iran. Khamenei also said abandoning uranium enrichment would be “100 percent against the country’s national interest”. The directive directly rejects the central US demand — that Iran hand over its highly enriched uranium to the United States — and contradicts even the conditional proposal Iran floated this week to dilute some of the stockpile and send the rest to Russia with a right to “reclaim it”. Iran has separately warned it may enrich uranium to 90% purity (weapons-grade) if it faces another military attack.
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Iran “Mafia-Esque Protection Racket” over Hormuz; $150,000 Fee
Iran is using the ceasefire period to “normalize Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz” via a multi-tiered transit-fee scheme run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Russia and China sit at the top tier as strategic partners; India and Pakistan operate under negotiated bilateral agreements; other states are case-by-case; ships linked to Iranian adversaries are denied access; ships without a bilateral framework pay around $150,000 per transit. the fees as “part of a mafia-esque protection racket in which the vessels pay Iran so that the Iranian navy can ‘secure’ the vessels against an attack by the Iranian navy or Iranian shore-based missiles and drones”.
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US: Skywave Seized, Celestial Sea Boarded; 91 Vessels Redirected
The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that three US officials confirmed US forces seized the US-sanctioned, Iranian-linked oil tanker M/T Skywave (IMO 9328716) between 19 and 20 May after it transited the Strait of Malacca on 14 May. US Central Command separately reported on 20 May that US Marines boarded the Iranian-flagged oil tanker M/T Celestial Sea (IMO 9397030) on suspicion of attempting to reach an Iranian port; US forces released the vessel after searching it and directing it to change course. CENTCOM has now redirected 91 commercial vessels and disabled four since the 13 April blockade on Iranian ports began.
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Pakistan-Saudi Pact: 8,000 Troops, Jet Squadron, Air Defence Sent
On Tuesday that Pakistan has sent 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets and an air defence system to Saudi Arabia as part of the September 2025 mutual defence pact, citing three security officials and two government sources who described the force as “substantial” and “combat-ready”. The aircraft were sent in April; the other assets at an unspecified later date. The deployment is required to uphold the pact in the context of repeated Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia. Pakistan’s simultaneous mediation between Washington and Tehran, including Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi’s 20 May Tehran visit, demonstrates Islamabad’s political-influence positioning in the region.
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Hezbollah Prolonged Engagement with IDF at Haddatha; First Since Ceasefire
Hezbollah defended against an Israel Defence Forces ground assault on the village of Haddatha in the Bint Jbeil District of southern Lebanon on 19 and 20 May. Hezbollah used small arms, mortars, RPGs, anti-tank guided missiles and FPV drones to defend through two attacks, a seven-hour engagement on 19 May and a four-hour one on 20 May. Hezbollah claimed to have repelled the first attack but did not claim to have repelled the second; MTV Lebanon reported IDF units destroyed homes in Haddatha after the second engagement, suggesting that the IDF dislodged Hezbollah.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Reeves: 10p Mileage Rise to 55p; First Raise in 15 Years
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced in the Commons this morning a 10p per mile increase in the tax-free mileage rate, taking it from 45p to 55p, backdated to April 2026 (2026-27 tax year). The increase is the first since 2011, when George Osborne raised the rate from 40p to 45p. MoneySavingExpert quoted Martin Lewis describing it as a “really important change” for drivers; the Birmingham Mail calculated the average benefit at £120 per year. The mileage increase is, the Independent argues, “the biggest help in the measures” in today’s package — specifically aimed at the “white van man and woman” constituency that Sir Keir Starmer has been referencing.
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Reeves Package: VAT Cut on Attractions, 100 Food Tariffs Removed, £120m Ceramics
The wider Reeves cost-of-living package announced today, includes a VAT reduction from 20% to 5% on tickets for summer attractions (theme parks, zoos and museums); free bus travel for children over the summer holiday; the removal of import tariffs from 100 food items including biscuits and baked beans; a VAT cut on children’s meals; and a £120 million support package for the ceramics industry largely based in Stoke-on-Trent. The Stoke component is politically specific: Stoke was won by Boris Johnson’s Tories in 2019, taken back by Labour in 2024, and is now a Reform UK target. Ceramics is also important for the aerospace sector.
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“Proof of Life” for a Government “Many Think is Dead”
The Independent’s Political Editor David Maddox framed today’s Reeves announcement as “proof of life for a government which many think is dead”: “The context is that this is a government teetering on collapse. The prime minister could be replaced before the summer and his chancellor Ms Reeves will surely follow him out of the exit door.” The uncertainty, Maddox argues, “ties the hands of ministers in attempting to do anything significant” — so the package is “more about reminding people that Keir Starmer’s government is still alive and still trying to do something even if it is not much”. Reeves’s own defence is that “the fundamentals are right” and that the IMF has “upgraded the low forecast on growth”.
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Burnham (Yesterday): “100%” Understand Why People Want Starmer to Step Down
Andy Burnham’s first sit-down television interview since being confirmed as Labour’s Makerfield by-election candidate, given to ITV News’s Daniel Hewitt yesterday, continues to drive Thursday’s news cycle. Burnham said he “100%” understands why people want Sir Keir Starmer to step down: “They’re sending a message.” He confirmed that becoming an MP would be the “first step” on the path to a Labour leadership challenge. “I’ve indicated always in my role as mayor that one day I will seek to return to Westminster,” he said. The framing politely contradicts Lammy’s “back on the pitch” and Nandy’s “froth and nonsense” lines.
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Conservatives: Reeves Package “Sticking Plaster”; Mileage Welcomed
The Conservative response to today’s Reeves announcement has been to welcome the mileage rise and fuel duty extension while framing the wider package as a “sticking plaster” against the Iran-war inflation backdrop. The wider Conservative attack line — Kemi Badenoch’s yesterday-PMQs claim of credit for the fuel duty “U-turn”, and her reference to Labour MPs having voted to ban new British oil and gas licences — continues. Starmer’s Wednesday-PMQs “Eurovision/FA Cup” riposte remains the operative Number 10 framing of the Conservative leadership’s positioning.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- At PMQs today Sir Keir Starmer extended the 5p fuel duty cut for the rest of 2026 and gave the haulage industry a twelve-month vehicle excise duty holiday, a package worth around £400 million which the Treasury will fully cost on Thursday. Kemi Badenoch claimed credit for a “U-turn”; Starmer told the Commons she had in her mind “won Eurovision on Saturday and scored the winning goal in the FA Cup final”. Rachel Reeves has separately dropped the supermarket food price cap push after a sharp retail backlash. The cabinet ring-fence around the Prime Minister continues to hold; the Burnham 18-June Makerfield campaign starts in earnest from tomorrow.
- The Iran deal track held through the day. Vice President JD Vance said at the White House yesterday that the United States and Iran had made “a lot of progress” in talks and that “neither side wants to see a resumption of the military campaign”; Trump told reporters he had been “an hour away” from ordering the cancelled strike. Two Chinese supertankers exited the Strait of Hormuz this morning with four million barrels of crude. The Indian rupee hit a record low overnight on US-Iran stalemate fears; Brent eased further to $105.20 (-1.1%); the FTSE 100 closed up +0.14% at 8,302.
- Andy Burnham gave his first sit-down television interview since the Makerfield confirmation, telling ITV News he “100%” understands why people want Starmer to step down: “they’re sending a message”. Burnham also said becoming an MP would be the “first step” on the path to a Labour leadership challenge. The cabinet ring-fence is operationally holding; the contest itself, when triggered, is now a question of when not whether. PMQs and the Burnham interview together marked the formal start of the 18 June by-election campaign.
GEO Geopolitical
Vance: “A Lot of Progress” in Iran Talks; Neither Side Wants Resumption
US Vice President JD Vance told a White House press briefing on Tuesday that the United States and Iran have made “a lot of progress” in their talks and that “neither side wants to see a resumption of the military campaign”. “We’re in a pretty good spot here,” Vance said. He acknowledged the difficulty of negotiating with a “fractured Iranian leadership”: “It’s not sometimes totally clear what the negotiating position of the team is”, adding that the US is trying to make its own red lines clear. One objective of the policy, Vance said, is to prevent a nuclear arms race spreading in the region.
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Two Chinese Supertankers Exit Hormuz with 4m Barrels of Crude
Two Chinese supertankers, the Yuan Gui Yang and Ocean Lily, exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday morning carrying approximately four million barrels of Iraqi crude oil. The exit was the first material commercial movement through the strait since Iran’s newly-established Persian Gulf Strait Authority began formalising its claimed transit authority on Sunday. Brent crude fell to as low as $110.16 a barrel on the news before regaining most of its losses; by the close it had eased further to $105.20, the lowest mark of the post-cancellation period.
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Iran Proposal Terms: Reparations, US Troop Exit, Sanctions Lifted
Iran’s latest peace proposal to end the war — as confirmed by Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi via IRNA news agency — comprises five linked demands: ending hostilities on all fronts including Lebanon; the exit of US forces from areas close to Iran; reparations for the destruction caused by the US-Israeli attacks; lifting of sanctions; release of frozen funds; and an end to the US marine blockade of Iranian ports. The terms are “little changed” from the proposal Trump rejected last week as “garbage”. Iran is also seeking enrichment-pause durations shorter than the 20-year US demand.
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US Seized Iran-Linked Tanker Skywave in Indian Ocean
The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the United States has seized an Iran-linked oil tanker, the Skywave, in the Indian Ocean, citing three US officials. The Skywave had been sanctioned by the United States in March for its role in transporting Iranian oil. The seizure is the second high-profile US blockade-related action of the negotiating window, following the US Treasury’s Monday designation of the Amin Exchange and 19 additional vessels linked to illicit Iranian oil exports. US Central Command has now redirected 88 commercial vessels and disabled four since the 13 April blockade began.
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Hezbollah’s FPV Drones Now Cause Majority of IDF Deaths in Lebanon
Hezbollah’s first-person view (FPV) drones now cause the majority of Israel Defense Forces deaths in southern Lebanon since the 16 April ceasefire began. Israeli public broadcaster Kan reports that Hezbollah FPV drones have affected between 70 and 80 percent of Israeli forces’ freedom of movement in southern Lebanon by restricting most units to nighttime movement and operations. Hezbollah is conducting an average of about 11 attacks per day, including resuming IED ambushes along the Qouzah axis in central southern Lebanon and the Taybeh-Qantara axis in the southeast on 13 May.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Starmer at PMQs: 5p Fuel Duty Freeze Extended; Haulier Tax Holiday
At Prime Minister’s Questions today Sir Keir Starmer announced an extension of the temporary 5p fuel duty cut for the rest of 2026 and a twelve-month vehicle excise duty holiday for the haulage industry. The package is expected to cost approximately £400 million; Chancellor Rachel Reeves will set out the details on Thursday. “This is not our war, but while the parties opposite wanted to jump into it, Labour will always protect working people,” Starmer told the Commons. The Treasury said the freeze would have saved the average driver £120 over two years by the end of 2026; the one-year vehicle excise pause would save £600 for a typical heavy lorry.
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Reeves Drops Food Price Cap Push After Retail Backlash
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has dropped the Treasury push for UK supermarkets to agree voluntary food price caps after a sharp retail-industry backlash. Retail sources said in an interview that the proposal — which would have asked supermarkets to limit prices on twenty to fifty essential items including bread, milk, eggs and cheese — was “unjustified” and likely to push costs up across the board. The Independent framed the drop as Reeves having “dropped Soviet-style price caps”. The Tuesday-evening floating of the proposal in the Telegraph and Guardian was rebuffed within 24 hours.
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Burnham to ITV: “100%” Understand Why People Want Starmer to Step Down
Andy Burnham gave his first sit-down television interview since being confirmed as Labour’s Makerfield by-election candidate, telling ITV News’s Daniel Hewitt today that he “100%” understands why people want Sir Keir Starmer to step down: “They’re sending a message.” Burnham also confirmed that becoming an MP would be the “first step” on the path to a Labour leadership challenge. “I’ve indicated always in my role as mayor that one day I will seek to return to Westminster,” he said. The interview marks the formal start of the 18 June by-election campaign and the operational beginning of the leadership-contest path.
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Badenoch: “U-Turn”; Starmer Eurovision/FA Cup Final Riposte
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch sought to claim credit for the fuel-duty announcement at PMQs today, calling it a U-turn caused by her pressure on the government. Starmer rejected the framing in unusually sharp terms: “I know the leader of the opposition likes to claim responsibility for things that have got literally nothing to do with her. In her mind, she won Eurovision on Saturday and scored the winning goal in the FA Cup final.” Badenoch also pressed Starmer over Labour MPs having voted to ban new British oil and gas licences yesterday, framing the announcement as inconsistent with that vote.
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Reeves Thursday: Cost-of-Living Package Details; Iran War Funding Question
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will set out the funding details for the £400 million fuel duty + vehicle excise package on Thursday, the Treasury announced as Starmer spoke. In quotes released to coincide with the announcement, Reeves said: “The war in Iran is pushing up fuel prices here at home but after strong growth at the beginning of the year, I am stepping in to protect people at the pump.” The framing — that the package is funded out of the “fastest-growing economy in the G7” growth dividend rather than fresh borrowing — will be the operational test for the gilts market through Thursday’s announcement window.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Two Chinese supertankers exited the Strait of Hormuz this morning carrying around four million barrels of crude. Trump told reporters yesterday he had been “an hour away” from ordering the cancelled strike; Vice President JD Vance said: “We’re in a pretty good spot here.” Brent has fallen to $106.40 (-0.8%) and gilt yields have softened further; the immediate market read is that the deal-or-strike binary is starting to resolve on the deal side.
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves is today pressuring UK supermarkets to cap grocery prices to limit Iran-war inflation; the Guardian notes the SNP is pledging to use devolved public health powers to fix prices on 20-50 items in Scotland. Today’s PMQs will run head-to-head against the price-cap announcement and Burnham’s post-confirmation press round. The food inflation question is now the connective tissue between the Iran war and UK domestic politics; the autumn Budget envelope tightens further if cap mechanics are added on top of yesterday’s £102.7bn HS2 confirmation.
- Iran is now storing oil on ten aging tankers around Kharg Island and Chabahar — 42 million barrels in floating storage (a 65% jump since the war began per Kpler), 64% onshore storage capacity (Kayrros), leaving only a few weeks of production space. Some NATO countries are reportedly considering escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz beginning in early July if Iran’s blockade continues. The economic squeeze on Iran is real and accelerating — but ISW cautions that Iranian leaders “care little for the economic well-being of the Iranian people beyond the impact… on regime stability”.
GEO Geopolitical
Chinese Tankers Exit Hormuz with 4m Barrels; Trump-Vance Talk Up Deal
Two Chinese supertankers, Yuan Gui Yang and Ocean Lily, exited the Strait of Hormuz this morning carrying around four million barrels of Iraqi crude citing LSEG and Kpler data, brightening hopes that the US-Israeli conflict with Iran may soon be resolved. President Trump said the war would be over “very quickly”; Vice President JD Vance told reporters at a White House briefing: “We’re in a pretty good spot here.” Vance acknowledged the difficulty of negotiating with a “fractured Iranian leadership”: “It’s not sometimes totally clear what the negotiating position of the team is.” Brent crude fell to as low as $110.16 on the announcement before regaining most of its losses.
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Trump: “An Hour Away” from Strike; Iran Leaders “Begging for a Deal”
President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday that he had been “an hour away from making the decision to go today” on the cancelled US strike against Iran, before the joint intervention of the Qatari Emir, the Saudi Crown Prince and the Emirati President. Trump said Iran’s leaders are “begging for a deal” and a new US attack would happen in coming days if no agreement was reached. Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s national security committee, said on X that Trump’s pausing of the attack was due to the realisation that any move against Iran would mean “facing a decisive military response”.
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Iran Storing Oil on Aging Tankers; 42m Barrels Around Kharg, Chabahar
Iran has expanded its oil storage by reusing ten aging tankers to hold crude oil clustered around Kharg Island and Chabahar Port, citing United Against Nuclear Iran and the Financial Times. Maritime intelligence firm Kpler estimates Iran has 42 million crude oil barrels in floating storage in the Middle East — a 65 percent increase since the conflict began — with roughly 24 million additional barrels on empty tankers within the US blockade area. Energy intelligence firm Kayrros assesses Iran’s onshore storage has risen by about 10 million barrels to 64 percent capacity, leaving only a few weeks’ worth of oil production space.
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NATO Considers Hormuz Ship Escort Plan from Early July
A senior NATO official said on 19 May that some NATO countries support a plan to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz beginning in early July if Iran’s blockade continues. One NATO diplomat said several NATO countries support the idea, but that there is “not the required unanimous support to enact it”. The diplomat added some NATO countries remain reluctant to get involved in the conflict, but NATO is generally concerned about the economic consequences of keeping the strait closed. The escort plan would mark the first direct NATO operational involvement in the Iran war.
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Iran Studied US Fighter-Jet Flight Patterns; Russia Likely Assisted
The New York Times, citing a US military official, reports that Iranian military commanders studied the flight patterns of US fighter jets and bombers, likely ahead of and throughout the recent war. The US official said the downing of a US F-15E and an A-10 on 3 April, and damage suffered to an F-35 on 19 March, indicated US flight patterns had become “too predictable”. The official added Russia may have supported the Iranian effort as part of a broader Russian effort to help Iran target US and allied assets; Russia also provided Iran with satellite imagery of US bases and modified Shahed drones during the conflict.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Reeves Urges Supermarkets to Cap Food Prices; SNP Pledges Devolved Caps
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is today pressuring UK supermarkets to cap food prices in an attempt to limit the inflation unleashed by the Iran war; the Guardian frames the announcement as supermarkets being “urged to consider voluntary price caps on essential foods”. The Scottish National party pledged to use its devolved public health powers to fix prices on 20-50 essential items in Scotland — including bread, milk, cheese and eggs — setting up a parallel intervention if Westminster cannot deliver. The food-inflation question lands at PMQs today, having already been raised by Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey at the previous PMQs session.
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Burnham Confirmed as Labour’s Makerfield Candidate; 18 June Vote
Andy Burnham was confirmed yesterday as Labour’s candidate for the 18 June Makerfield by-election after the party’s National Executive Committee rubber-stamped his selection. No other candidates had been shortlisted. Reform UK announced local plumber Robert Kenyon as its by-election candidate minutes later, with Nigel Farage framing the contest as “The Plucky Plumber taking on Open Borders Burnham”. Burnham used this morning’s post-confirmation media to set out his economic agenda, including ruling out any imminent EU return and recommitting to the fiscal rules. The contest formally begins today; the leadership question gates open on a Burnham Westminster win.
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HS2: £87.7-£102.7bn Cost Confirmed; Opening 2036-2039
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander confirmed in the Commons yesterday that HS2 will cost between £87.7 billion and £102.7 billion in 2025 prices — roughly double the previous government’s figure in 2019 terms — and that the first trains will not run between Old Oak Common and Birmingham Curzon Street until 2036-2039, up to six years late. Top speed has been cut from 360km/h to 320km/h, saving up to £2.5 billion. £44.2 billion has already been spent. Alexander said Labour inherited a “litany of failure”: “If it seems like an obscene increase in time and costs, it is because it is. If it seems like I’m angry, it is because I am.”
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Reform’s Kenyon: “Stepping Stone” Charge vs Burnham’s “Cambridge” Bio
Reform UK’s newly-unveiled Makerfield candidate Robert Kenyon — local plumber, army reservist, former NHS specialist technician — accused Andy Burnham of treating Makerfield as a “stepping stone”. Kenyon attacked “career politicians… parachuted into somewhere they have never even visited” in a Reform UK campaign video, drawing a contrast with Burnham’s Cambridge education and former special-adviser background. Nigel Farage said: “This is the ‘Plucky Plumber’ taking on ‘Open Borders Burnham’. Only Reform UK can beat Labour in this by-election. It is a David versus Goliath battle.”
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Lammy: Raise Age of Criminal Responsibility 10 to 14?
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy is considering raising the age of criminal responsibility in England and Wales from 10 to as high as 14, The Times reported yesterday. The government is “eyeing” Scotland’s threshold, under which children cannot be charged with criminal offences before age 12, as a possible starting point. The announcement lands as the first substantive domestic-policy intervention of the cabinet-ring-fence week. The current threshold of 10 is among the lowest in Europe and below the UN-recommended minimum of 14; raising it would align England and Wales with the majority of European jurisdictions.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Andy Burnham was formally confirmed today as Labour’s candidate for the 18 June Makerfield by-election — the Guardian reports the NEC rubber-stamped the selection with no other candidates shortlisted. Reform UK unveiled local plumber Robert Kenyon minutes later, with Nigel Farage framing the contest as “The Plucky Plumber taking on Open Borders Burnham”. The Independent reports a parallel YouGov poll showing 47% of Labour members would back Burnham for prime minister. The contest now formally starts; the immediate question is whether Burnham’s “ruling out any imminent EU return” pivot and his recommitment to the fiscal rules hold through the campaign.
- Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander confirmed in the Commons today that HS2 will cost between £87.7 billion and £102.7 billion in 2025 prices — roughly double the previous government’s figure in 2019 terms — and that the first trains will not run until 2036-2039, up to six years late. Top speed is being cut from 360km/h to 320km/h. Alexander’s framing – “If it seems like I’m angry, it is because I am” – positions the Labour government as inheriting a Conservative failure; the structural fiscal envelope for the autumn Budget tightens further.
- The Iran situation is in a holding pattern. President Trump’s “two or three days” window holds; the Jerusalem Post carries new analysis from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs that any renewed war would see Iran fire “tens or hundreds of missiles a day” at Israel and target Gulf oil infrastructure to drag the Gulf states into a war they have explicitly sought to avoid. Unexplained explosions were reported on Iran’s Qeshm island. Brent eased modestly to $107.30; the immediate strike risk premium continues to come off.
GEO Geopolitical
JPost/NYT: Iran Could Fire “Hundreds of Missiles a Day” if War Renews
Hamidreza Azizi of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs said in an interview yesterday that if hostilities resume, Iran may fire “tens or hundreds of missiles per day” at Israel and the United States to “effectively confront the enemy and also change the calculation on the other side”, the Jerusalem Post reported this morning. Azizi assessed that Iranian leaders are now planning for a “short but high intensity” war — in contrast to the February-onset campaign in which they rationed missiles for several weeks — and would deliberately target Gulf oil fields, refineries and ports to drag the Gulf states into a war they have explicitly sought to avoid.
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Iran: Explosions on Qeshm Island in Strait of Hormuz; Cause Unknown
Explosions were heard on Iran’s Qeshm island in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the Jerusalem Post reported, citing the semi-official Iranian Mehr news agency, which said the cause was unknown and no further details were available. Qeshm is the largest island in the Persian Gulf and a major Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy base; it sits directly on the strait through which Iran’s newly-established Persian Gulf Strait Authority claims to control transit. No official Iranian comment has been issued; no claim of responsibility was made; Western intelligence assessments are pending. The incident comes in the third day of Trump’s “two or three day” pause on the cancelled US strike.
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Trump: “No Nuclear Weapons for Iran”; Hegseth + Caine Stand Ready
President Donald Trump’s Truth Social cancellation of last night’s scheduled US military strike against Iran — at the joint request of the Qatari Emir, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed — included a sharply more substantive sentence than the headline cancellation, the Jerusalem Post reported: “This Deal will include, importantly, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN!” Trump instructed Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Daniel Caine and the US military to remain prepared for a “full, large-scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached”.
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Iran: 1,500 Vessels Waiting for Hormuz Permission; Cables Threat Continues
The Iranian regime’s newly-established Persian Gulf Strait Authority continues to formalise its claim to manage transit through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian state media reporting that 1,500 vessels are currently waiting for Iranian permission to transit. IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency repeated yesterday’s threat that Iran could impose permits, oversight measures and sovereign fees on the subsea fibre-optic cables running through the strait — a step that would breach Articles 37, 38 and 44 of UNCLOS. The cables affected include AAE-1, FALCON, GBICS and OMRAN/EPEG.
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Russia Hits Ukraine with 546 Drones, Missiles; Belarus-Russia Begin Nuclear Drills
The Institute for the Study of War confirms that Russian forces launched 546 drones and missiles at Ukraine overnight on 17-18 May, including 14 ballistic missiles and 8 cruise missiles, with 18 missiles and 16 drones striking 34 locations primarily across Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kherson and Odesa oblasts. A Chinese-owned ship approaching the port of Odesa was hit. At least 33 civilians were injured, including three children. Russia and Belarus simultaneously began joint nuclear-weapon exercises on 18 May — the most explicit Russian nuclear-signalling event of the year.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Confirmed as Labour’s Makerfield Candidate; 18 June Vote
Andy Burnham was today confirmed as Labour’s candidate for the Makerfield by-election expected on 18 June, after Labour’s National Executive Committee rubber-stamped his selection. The party said no other candidates had been shortlisted for the seat vacated by Josh Simons. Burnham said in a statement that he was “humbled” to be selected; that the Makerfield communities had been “neglected by national politics for too long”; that the people there “feel Westminster isn’t working for them and they are right”; and that the priority was making “life more affordable again”. He is widely expected to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the leadership if elected.
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Reform Unveils “Plucky Plumber” Kenyon; Farage Frames David vs Goliath
Reform UK unveiled local plumber Robert Kenyon as its Makerfield by-election candidate minutes after Burnham’s confirmation. Kenyon — an army reservist and former NHS specialist technician in Lancashire — came within 5,399 votes of Josh Simons in 2024. Nigel Farage said: “This is the ‘Plucky Plumber’ taking on ‘Open Borders Burnham’. Only Reform UK can beat Labour in this by-election. It is a David versus Goliath battle.” Kenyon, in a Reform video, accused Burnham of treating Makerfield as a “stepping stone” and attacked “career politicians… parachuted into somewhere they have never even visited”.
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HS2: £87.7-£102.7bn Cost, Opening Pushed to 2036-2039
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander confirmed in the Commons today that the HS2 high-speed rail line will cost between £87.7 billion and £102.7 billion in 2025 prices — roughly double the previous government’s figure in 2019 terms — and that the first trains will not run between Old Oak Common and Birmingham Curzon Street until 2036-2039, up to six years late. The top speed has been cut from the original 360km/h to 320km/h, saving up to £2.5 billion and allowing delivery a year earlier. £44.2 billion has already been spent. Alexander said Labour had inherited a “litany of failure”; “If it seems like an obscene increase in time and costs, it is because it is. If it seems like I’m angry, it is because I am.”
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Alexander: “I’m Angry”; “Litany of Failure” Inherited from Tories
The Transport Secretary’s Commons statement on HS2 today set the Labour government’s framing on inherited infrastructure failure with unusual sharpness: “Instead of signalling the country’s ambition, HS2 became a signal of the country’s decline.” “If it seems like I’m angry, it is because I am.” Heidi Alexander told the Commons it could now cost “almost as much to cancel the line as it would to finish it, while delivering none of the benefits”. The cost framing — a£100bn rail project versus NASA’s £79bn Artemis Moon mission’s lead on Tuesday — is the political variable for the autumn Budget.
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Lammy: Raise Age of Criminal Responsibility from 10 to 14?
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy is considering lifting the age of criminal responsibility in England and Wales from 10 to as high as 14, The Times reported this morning. The government is “eyeing Scotland’s law”, under which children cannot be charged with criminal offences before age 12, as a possible starting point. The intervention — the first substantive domestic-policy announcement of the new political week — lands alongside the cabinet’s public ring-fence around the Prime Minister, with Lammy yesterday morning on Sky News saying “there will be no timetable for departure” and that the party needed to “get back on the pitch”.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- President Donald Trump cancelled the scheduled US military strike on Iran that had been set for today, announcing on Truth Social late last night that the Qatari Emir, Saudi Crown Prince and Emirati President asked him to suspend for “two or three days” while negotiations continue. The Gulf leaders warned, per Axios, that they would “pay the price” if the strike went ahead. Trump kept the US military prepared for a “full, large-scale assault” on short notice if talks fail. Brent has eased to $107.95 (-2.0%) and the FTSE 100 is set to open firmer; the immediate war risk premium is coming off across asset classes — but this is a three-day window, not a settlement.
- Russian forces launched the largest single overnight strike on Ukraine in over a month, the Institute for the Study of War confirms: 546 drones and missiles, including 14 ballistic missiles, with 18 missiles and 16 drones striking 34 locations primarily across Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. A Chinese-owned ship approaching Odesa was hit. Belarus and Russia simultaneously began joint nuclear-weapon exercises — the strongest Russian signalling response yet to Ukraine’s 16-17 May strikes on Moscow.
- Sir Keir Starmer’s Tuesday morning is dominated by a YouGov poll in The Times showing Burnham would defeat him 59% to 37% in a head-to-head leadership ballot of Labour members; the Daily Mail’s “Slippery Burnham’s two u-turns in one day” on Brexit and the fiscal rules now defines the Burnham-pitch counter-narrative. On Burnham’s pledge to “not rip up the fiscal rules” — markets will price that as the most material variable today.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Cancels Iran Strike at Gulf Leaders’ Request; “Two or Three Days”
President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social on 18 May that he has cancelled the scheduled US military strike against Iran that had been planned for today. Trump said Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed had asked him to suspend the strike “for two or three days” to allow ongoing negotiations. CNBC quoted Trump: “We will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow.” A US official told Axios the three Gulf leaders warned they would “pay the price” if the strike went ahead, fearing Iranian retaliation against their energy and oil infrastructure.
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Iran’s Counterproposal “Does Not Meet” US Demands on Enrichment
the revised Iranian counterproposal handed to the US through Pakistan on Monday “does not appear to meet US demands”. A senior US official and a source briefed on the matter told Axios that Iran’s counterproposal does not contain any commitment about suspending uranium enrichment or handing over its existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium — the central US demand. The US official said the Trump administration considers Iran’s proposal “insufficient”. IRGC-affiliated media said “major disagreements” remain and that Iran would never accept “an end to the war in return for nuclear commitments”.
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Iran Establishes Persian Gulf Strait Authority; Threatens Hormuz Subsea Cables
Iran is formalising and institutionalising its claimed control over transit through the Strait of Hormuz in contravention of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) stated on X yesterday that it serves as the “legal institution and representative authority” for managing transit through the strait, claims that navigation through the designated zone requires “full coordination” with the authority, and warns that unauthorised transit will be considered illegal. Iranian state media reports 1,500 vessels currently waiting for Iranian permission to transit. IRGC-affiliated Fars News said Iran could impose “permits, oversight measures, and sovereign fees” on subsea fibre-optic cables.
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Russia Hits Ukraine with 546 Drones and Missiles; Belarus-Russia Begin Nuclear Drills
Russian forces conducted the largest single overnight strike on Ukraine in more than a month, launching 546 drones and missiles on the night of 17-18 May, the Institute for the Study of War confirms. The package included 14 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and S-400 air defence missiles repurposed for surface strike, 8 Iskander-K cruise missiles, and 524 Shahed, Gerbera, Italmas and Parodiya drones. Ukrainian air defences downed 4 cruise missiles and 503 drones; 18 missiles and 16 drones struck 34 locations across Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kherson and Odesa oblasts. A Chinese-owned ship approaching the port of Odesa was hit. Russia and Belarus simultaneously began joint nuclear-weapon exercises on 18 May.
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Zelensky/SZRU: 11 Russian Banks Preparing to Liquidate; 400 Oil Wells Closed
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on 18 May that Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) has obtained Russian documents showing that one unspecified Russian oil company alone has had to close 400 active oil wells, Russia has reduced oil refining by at least 10% so far in 2026, 11 Russian financial institutions are preparing to liquidate and another 8 banking institutions cannot internally resolve their accumulated problems. Russia’s federal budget deficit is already almost $80 billion in the first five months of 2026. Russian Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov also publicly conceded labour shortages and sanctions are now forcing downward GDP revisions.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
The Times/YouGov: Burnham 59%, Starmer 37% in Head-to-Head Members’ Ballot
The Times leads its Tuesday front page with a YouGov poll showing Andy Burnham would defeat Sir Keir Starmer 59% to 37% in a head-to-head ballot of Labour Party members, the BBC Newspaper Review reports. The poll lands as the cabinet’s public ring-fence around the Prime Minister starts to look operational rather than substantive: Sir Keir’s “I won’t walk away” leads the Daily Mirror’s front page; the Daily Telegraph runs “Starmer sabotages Burnham on Brexit”; the Daily Mail leads with “Slippery Burnham’s two u-turns in one day” under a “Labour’s civil war” banner; the Guardian: “Burnham: Labour must change to regain trust”.
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Burnham Tries to Ease Markets; Won’t “Rip Up Fiscal Rules”
With Andy Burnham’s pledge to “reassure markets he will not rip up the UK’s fiscal rules”, even while vowing to “reverse privatisation and austerity”. The paper reports that Burnham’s remarks were specifically designed to “reassure investors that he would not embark on irresponsible borrowing policies” ahead of the Makerfield selection. Sterling firmed modestly into the Tuesday open at $1.3310 and ten-year gilt yields softened from Friday’s 5.18% closing peak; the FT’s framing is that the political risk premium is now coming off, but the structural wartime-fiscal premium remains.
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“Starmer Sabotages Burnham” on Brexit; Rejoin Prospect Raised
The Daily Telegraph leads Tuesday with “Starmer sabotages Burnham on Brexit”. The paper writes that Sir Keir Starmer “has raised the prospect of rejoining the EU” while Burnham “seeks to keep Leave voters on side”, despite Burnham’s previous explicit desire to reverse the 2016 referendum. Sir Keir has been pursuing closer ties with the bloc but has stuck to Labour’s election manifesto pledges to “stay outside the EU”, with “no return to the single market, the customs union, or freedom of movement”. The Telegraph framing brackets the Streeting-Burnham EU split with a now-strategic Number 10 reading.
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Mirror: Starmer’s “Defiant Message”; “I Won’t Walk Away”
The Daily Mirror leads Tuesday with “Starmer’s defiant message: I won’t walk away”, the BBC Newspaper Review reports, quoting Sir Keir as “defiant” and saying he “rejects call to set out departure timetable” despite pressure from Labour MPs and senior ministers. The Daily Mirror also embeds the now-viral “best of buddies” photograph of Alan Titchmarsh, David Beckham and King Charles III at the Chelsea Flower Show. The Times reports that Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy has floated lifting the age of criminal responsibility “from ten to as high as 14” in England and Wales, mirroring Scotland’s law where children cannot be charged before turning 12.
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i Paper: HS2 to Cost More than NASA’s Artemis Moon Mission
The i Paper leads Tuesday with Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander’s planned release today of a review on HS2 showing the “stripped back high-speed link” will become “the most expensive rail line in the world”, with delays and higher costs set to reach around £100 billion — more than NASA’s £79 billion projected cost for the Artemis programme to land astronauts on the Moon. The BBC’s Newspaper Review reports the Alexander announcement is timed to take a domestic-policy story into the Tuesday news cycle alongside the leadership question. The Daily Express separately reports that 66% of Britons want to keep the pension triple lock.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Pakistan handed Washington a revised Iranian proposal for ending the war today, but Trump still meets his national security advisers tomorrow to discuss options for resuming military action. Defence Minister Israel Katz is on the record waiting for the “green light from the United States”; the Israeli airstrike on Baalbeck overnight killed a Palestinian Islamic Jihad commander as Lebanon’s civilian death toll closes on 3,000. Markets read this as escalation risk rising, not falling: Brent closed at $110.20, gilt yields softened modestly after the UK political risk premium came off, and sterling firmed to $1.3290.
- Sir Keir Starmer told broadcasters today that he is “not going to” set a departure timetable and will “not walk away” from Number 10. Andy Burnham used a Leeds conference speech to retreat further on the EU: “I am not proposing that the UK considers rejoining the EU… I respect the decision that was made at the referendum.” The leadership question is now formally locked in: Starmer stays through Makerfield; the Brexit question is parked; the contest, when and if it comes, will be fought on public ownership and the “serious rewiring” Burnham promised today, not on EU membership.
- Ukraine’s 16-17 May strike series — confirmed by the Institute for the Study of War today — hit the Angstrem semiconductor plant, the Moscow Oil Refinery, two oil pumping stations and a runway at Sheremetyevo, with 51 flights diverted. Russian milbloggers are openly calling for retaliation with tactical nuclear weapons; the Kremlin’s public response has been muted. The Defence Minister Andrei Belousov congratulated units for the claimed seizure of Borova despite ISW assessing the area is still contested. The implication for European supply chains is that long-range strike escalation now spans both the Iran and Russia theatres simultaneously.
GEO Geopolitical
Pakistan Hands US Revised Iranian Proposal; “We Don’t Have Much Time”
Pakistan today shared with the United States a revised proposal from Iran to end the war in the Middle East, a Pakistani source said on Monday, warning that the two sides “don’t have much time” to narrow their differences. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei later confirmed that Tehran’s views had been “conveyed to the American side through Pakistan”, but gave no details. The Pakistani source said the two sides “keep changing their goalposts”. Trump is expected to meet top national security advisers tomorrow to discuss options for resuming military action, Axios reported.
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Israel Kills Palestinian Islamic Jihad Commander in Baalbeck Strike
An Israeli airstrike near the eastern Lebanese city of Baalbeck overnight killed a commander of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad militant group, Wael Mahmoud Abd al-Halim, along with his daughter, Lebanese security sources said. The Israeli military said it had killed the commander and had taken steps to “mitigate the risk of harm to civilians”, making no mention of his daughter. Hezbollah responded by launching an explosive drone at an Iron Dome air defence position in the Galilee region of northern Israel, and the Israeli military said the drone “crossed into Israeli territory”. Lebanon’s National News Agency reported Israeli airstrikes on more than half a dozen further locations in south Lebanon.
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Saudi Arabia Intercepts Three Drones from Iraqi Airspace; Iran “Mechanism” for Strait
Saudi Arabia said on Sunday it had intercepted three drones that entered the kingdom from Iraqi airspace, alongside the Barakah strike on the UAE. Riyadh warned it would take the “necessary operational measures” to respond to any attempt to violate its sovereignty and security. The two parallel incidents bring the Gulf-state defensive picture sharply into focus: drones launched from Iraq toward Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been a recurring pattern through the conflict. Iranian parliament national security committee head Ebrahim Azizi separately told reporters Tehran had prepared a “mechanism to manage traffic through the strait along a designated route” that would be unveiled “soon” — an attempt to formalise Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz.
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Ukraine Hit Angstrem, Moscow Oil Refinery, Two Pumping Stations; Sheremetyevo Runway Fire
The Institute for the Study of War’s 17 May Russian campaign assessment confirms that Ukrainian forces struck the Angstrem Semiconductor Plant at the Elma Technopark in Zelenograd, northwest of Moscow City — a plant producing microelectronics for high-precision weapons — alongside the Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya Raion and the Solnechnogorsk and Volodarsk oil pumping stations, with a separate strike triggering a runway fire at Sheremetyevo International Airport. Russia’s Transportation Ministry confirmed 51 flight diversions and said two-thirds of flights from Moscow airports were delayed by more than two hours. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin acknowledged the refinery strike but claimed only the “checkpoint” was hit.
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Pakistan Deploys Jet Squadron, Thousands of Troops to Saudi Arabia
Exclusively today that Pakistan has deployed a jet squadron and thousands of troops to Saudi Arabia in support of Riyadh during the Iran war, in the most concrete signal yet that the Pakistani mediation track between Washington and Tehran is being run in parallel with material Pakistani support to Iran’s Sunni-state neighbour. The deployment supplements existing Pakistani assistance to the Saudi armed forces and is being treated by analysts as a hedge against the war’s expansion into a wider Sunni-Shia regional contest. The deployment was reported in the same news cycle as Saudi Arabia’s interception of three drones from Iraqi airspace.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Starmer: “I am Not Going to Walk Away”; No Timetable Even if Burnham Wins
Sir Keir Starmer told broadcasters this afternoon that he would not set out a timetable for his departure even if Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election: “I’m not going to do that.” The Prime Minister repeated that he would “not walk away” from the job and said the by-election was “a fight between Labour and Reform”, adding: “I will be backing 100% whoever the [Labour] candidate is.” The Guardian’s Andrew Sparrow framed the day in his live-blog headline: “I am not going to walk away, says Starmer as Burnham pitches debate on how politics needs to change.”
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Burnham in Leeds: “I Respect Brexit”; Not Proposing EU Rejoin
Andy Burnham used a conference speech in Leeds today to pledge not to “re-run” Brexit arguments and to formally state that he is not proposing the UK rejoins the European Union. “My view is that Brexit has been damaging, but I also believe the last thing we should do right now is re-run those arguments,” the Greater Manchester mayor said. “I am not proposing that the UK considers rejoining the EU. I respect the decision that was made at the referendum and it is going to undermine everything I have said about strengthening democracy if we don’t respect that vote.” The Liberal Democrats accused Burnham of “U-turning before he’s even been elected”.
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Burnham: “Serious Rewiring”, Transfer Money from “Bloated National State”
In the same Leeds speech, Burnham set out the affirmative case for what a Burnham-led Labour Party would do: a transfer of money and resources from “a bloated national state” to “a malnourished local one”. “We have hollowed out councils and have created an unaccountable state, where too much is delivered by outsourced agencies outside local councillors’ control,” Burnham said. The country, he said, needed “serious rewiring”: a vote for him would be a “vote to change Labour”, and Labour itself needed to change to “regain people’s trust”. The framing positions the Burnham leadership pitch on devolution and public ownership rather than the EU question.
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Lammy on Sky: “No Timetable”; Time for Labour to Get “Back on the Pitch”
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy said on Monday morning that “there will be no timetable for departure” for the Prime Minister, and went on to tell the BBC that it was time for the Labour Party to “get back on the pitch after days of introspection and infighting”. Lammy added that he had spoken to the Prime Minister twice on Sunday. The intervention served as the coordinated Number 10 opening line, which Starmer himself confirmed in broadcast interviews later in the day.
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Gilts Stabilise After Cabinet Voices Support for Starmer
This afternoon that UK gilts stabilised through Monday after the cabinet coalesced publicly behind Sir Keir Starmer, with the ten-year gilt yield easing modestly from Friday’s 5.18% close. The piece frames the political risk premium as having come partially off, after a fortnight in which the rising probability of a Burnham-led government had been the most material variable pricing UK assets. The Times separately reports that the International Monetary Fund warned Labour today to “stick to fiscal rules or risk market revolt”, picking up the same diagnostic frame from the multilateral side.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy said this morning there will be “no timetable for departure”, settling overnight reporting from ITV, the i Paper and the Mail On Sunday that Sir Keir Starmer was about to announce his exit. The choice is now locked in: Starmer will fight the Makerfield by-election and any contest that follows; markets will price a more drawn-out leadership question rather than an imminent handover, and gilt yields will likely give back some of last week’s panic premium at the open.
- Sunday’s drone strike on the United Arab Emirates’ Barakah Nuclear Power Plant was “likely” Iranian or Iranian-backed, executed via a deliberately misleading western-border approach used by Iran before at Abqaiq in 2019. IRGC-aligned media in Tehran are simultaneously trying to pin the strike on Saudi Arabia. The Emirates is investigating; Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed has called it a “treacherous terrorist attack”. Brent and gold are likely to open higher; Gulf carriers will continue to route around the Strait of Hormuz.
- Burnham retreats on the EU after the Saturday and Sunday Streeting backlash: his spokesman tells the Telegraph he is campaigning on local issues in Makerfield and will “not stand on a national manifesto”. The Times reports that allies of Burnham now accuse Wes Streeting of “sabotage”, with one ally telling the paper: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election.” The Makerfield contest is no longer a referendum on Brexit — it is a referendum on whether Reform takes the seat from Labour at all.
GEO Geopolitical
Barakah Drone Strike “Likely” Iranian; Tehran Tries to Blame Riyadh
The Institute for the Study of War’s 17 May Iran update assesses that “likely Iranian or Iranian-backed forces” launched the three drones that targeted Abu Dhabi’s Barakah Nuclear Power Plant on Sunday, with two intercepted by UAE air defences and one striking an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter. Iran has previously used a westerly approach to obscure responsibility, as in the 2019 Abqaiq attack on Saudi oil facilities, where drones launched from Iranian territory approached from the west. IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency and Defa Press are now openly attempting to attribute the Sunday strike to Saudi Arabia.
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Katz: Israel “Awaiting Green Light” to Renew Iran War, “Targets are Marked”
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said over the weekend during a security assessment that the IDF is “ready in defence and offence, and the targets are marked”, and that Israel is “awaiting a green light from the United States” to resume the war on Iran, the Times of Israel reported. Katz framed the operational objectives in unusually explicit terms: “complete the elimination of the Khamenei dynasty, the initiator of the extermination plan against Israel”, and “return Iran to the age of darkness and stone by blowing up central energy and electricity facilities and crushing national economic infrastructure”. The renewed campaign, he said, would be “different and deadly and will add devastating blows in the most painful places”.
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US Tables Five Conditions to Tehran; Positions “Fundamentally Incompatible”
The Institute for the Study of War’s 17 May assessment, citing IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency, reports that the United States has tabled five main conditions in response to Iran’s 10 May counterproposal: a rejection of war reparations, a requirement that Iran transfer 400 kilograms of uranium to the United States, a limit to one operational Iranian nuclear facility, no release of more than 25 percent of frozen Iranian assets, and no guarantees against future US or Israeli attacks. ISW concludes that “the United States and Iran continue to pursue fundamentally incompatible negotiating positions”.
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Iraqi Officials Confirm Second Israeli Outpost in Iraqi Desert
Two Iraqi officials, including senior Wisdom Movement official Hassan Fadaam, said in an interview on 17 May that Israel built two clandestine outposts in the Iraqi desert in late 2024 — not one, as previously reported by the Wall Street Journal. The first outpost, near al Nukhayb in Anbar Province, was used by the IDF for air support, refuelling and “medical treatment” during the 12-day war in June 2025. Israeli commando units and search-and-rescue teams were deployed there before the start of the recent US-Israeli campaign in Iran, ready to recover Israeli pilots if Iranian forces shot down Israeli fighter jets. The first outpost is no longer operational; the second outpost’s location and status remain undisclosed.
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Ukraine Hits Moscow with Biggest Drone Attack in Over a Year; Four Dead
Ukraine launched its largest overnight drone attack on the Moscow region in more than a year on Sunday, killing at least four people including three near the capital. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said air defences had destroyed 81 drones headed for Moscow since midnight; twelve people were wounded, mostly near the entrance to Moscow’s oil refinery. Russia’s defence ministry said more than 1,000 Ukrainian drones had been downed across the country in the past 24 hours. Russia hit Odesa, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson overnight on 17-18 May in response, killing one and injuring more than 30 including a 2-year-old girl, a 10-year-old boy and an 11-year-old boy.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Lammy on Sky: “No Timetable for Departure”; Starmer Will Stay
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy said on Monday morning that Sir Keir Starmer will not set out a timetable for his departure from Downing Street. “There will be no timetable for departure,” Lammy said, adding that he had spoken to the Prime Minister twice on Sunday. The remarks formally close down the weekend reporting from ITV’s Robert Peston, the i Paper and the Mail On Sunday, all of which suggested Starmer was actively weighing whether to set a date for his own exit, and lock in the path through Makerfield. Starmer will fight any contest if one is triggered; he will not pre-announce his own departure.
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Burnham Retreats on EU Rejoin; “Local Issues” in Makerfield
Andy Burnham is distancing himself from calls to rejoin the European Union after the weekend Streeting-Nandy backlash. A spokesman for the Greater Manchester mayor said publicly that Burnham will be campaigning on local issues in the Makerfield by-election and will not stand on a “national manifesto”. With the same line: “Burnham plays down rejoining EU as Labour battle reopens Brexit wounds”, quoting Burnham saying he is “not advocating” an immediate rejoin move but acknowledging there is a “case” for it long-term.
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Burnham Allies Accuse Streeting of “Sabotage”
The Times leads Monday on Burnham’s allies formally accusing former Health Secretary Wes Streeting of “sabotage”, telling the paper that his Saturday call to rejoin the EU reopens Labour’s Brexit battles and plays directly into Reform UK’s hands ahead of the Makerfield by-election. One Burnham ally is quoted: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election.” A cabinet minister tells the paper that the public battle between Streeting and Burnham as frontrunners is, paradoxically, making Sir Keir Starmer look like an “island of stability and sanity”.
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Burnham Faces “Perilous” Race in Makerfield
The Guardian leads Monday with Burnham’s own allies describing his Makerfield by-election bid as “perilous”. While the Greater Manchester mayor is likely to be formally confirmed as Labour’s candidate this week, the paper says he faces an “uphill battle” to beat Reform UK, with polls suggesting he is only marginally ahead. The outcome, will determine not only the immediate political future of Sir Keir Starmer but also “the viability of Labour as a whole”. The Prime Minister spent the weekend at Chequers in discussions with aides over whether to “revive” the government or announce his exit; Lammy’s Sky News intervention now formally settles that question.
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WHO Declares Ebola Public Health Emergency Over DRC Outbreak
The World Health Organization has declared the latest Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo a public health emergency of international concern on its front page on Monday, alongside its Burnham-EU lead. The WHO designation triggers expanded international coordination and funding for outbreak response, and is the first such Ebola-related declaration in several years. The BBC’s Monday-morning Newspaper Review summary highlights the FT framing as a counter-cycle to the political-leadership story dominating the rest of Fleet Street.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- A drone strike on the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the United Arab Emirates on Sunday set fire to an electrical generator outside the plant’s perimeter, with no radiological release. The IAEA expressed “grave concern”; no group claimed responsibility but UAE authorities have previously attributed roughly 3,000 such attacks since 28 February to Iran or its proxies. UAE Al-Ain media reported the same evening that the Israeli army “continues its preparations to resume the war”, including planned strikes on Iranian energy and infrastructure and against high-ranking officials — meaning Monday’s oil and gas open is set to price a meaningfully higher probability of a Gulf re-escalation.
- Sir Keir Starmer is at Chequers this weekend deciding, per ITV’s Robert Peston, whether to announce a timetable for his own departure as Prime Minister. Cabinet ministers split: one bloc says “the die is already cast” and he should shape a positive legacy; another insists he should stay to avoid “mayhem” if Burnham loses Makerfield. Colleagues “don’t know what he will decide”. A Sunday-night statement, if it comes, would re-price gilts and sterling at Monday’s open.
- Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy used Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg to dismiss the leadership talk as “froth and nonsense” and to call Wes Streeting’s Saturday EU-rejoin pitch “a bit odd”. Streeting allies hit back that his willingness to talk EU membership is precisely the kind of risk Number 10 will not take. The Labour leadership contest, if triggered after Makerfield, will now be fought on EU re-entry as much as on the cost of living — with Reform UK preparing to print Burnham’s 2025 “I want to rejoin it” quote on Makerfield by-election leaflets.
GEO Geopolitical
Drone Strike Sparks Fire at UAE’s Barakah Nuclear Plant; IAEA “Grave Concern”
A drone struck an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the UAE’s Al-Dhafra Region on Sunday, sparking a fire that the Abu Dhabi Media Office said caused no injuries and no radiological release, the Jerusalem Post reported. The Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation confirmed that the plant’s essential systems are operating normally. The Associated Press said the strike “highlighted the risk of renewed war as the Iran ceasefire remains tenuous”. No group claimed responsibility; the International Atomic Energy Agency expressed “grave concern” and said it is following the situation closely.
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IDF Officer Cpt. Recanati Killed; 100 Hezbollah Targets Struck Over Weekend
The Israel Defense Forces named the officer killed in Friday’s Hezbollah drone strike in southern Lebanon as 24-year-old Capt. Maoz Israel Recanati, a platoon commander in the Golani Brigade’s 12th Battalion from Itamar, the Times of Israel reported. A statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Recanati had been due to marry his fiancée, Rani, in a month: “We all embrace her and his loved ones during this difficult time.” The IDF said it struck approximately 100 Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon over the weekend, including surveillance posts and weapon depots, and shot down several Hezbollah drones that triggered sirens in Western Galilee border communities.
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UAE Al-Ain: Israel Preparing Renewed Iran Strike on Energy and Officials
UAE outlet Al-Ain reported on Sunday that Israel is on “high alert in anticipation of a possible resumption of war with Iran”, citing a source briefed on Israeli military planning carried by the Jerusalem Post. The reported plan would “include damage to national infrastructure, energy sites, and power plants, and Israeli aircraft will also attempt to target high-ranking Iranian officials”. Israel is reportedly anticipating Iranian strikes in response. The reporting comes alongside Israeli media discussion of an imminent decision window and follows last week’s New York Times account, carried in Saturday’s Times of Israel, that US and Israeli officials were in their most intense renewal-preparation phase to date.
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Gerasimov’s Battlefield Report “Highly Inaccurate”; Ukraine Hits Azot Plant
Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov made a series of false claims to the Western Grouping of Forces, claiming Russian troops are advancing west of Kupyansk toward Shevchenkove despite ISW’s assessment that Russian forces have infiltrated only about 14.2% of Kupyansk. the pattern “highly inaccurate” for the fifth consecutive month and warned the Russian command “is either unaware of or unwilling to admit the realities of the battlefield even to itself, and is therefore allowing its own falsehoods to influence Russian operational and strategic planning”.
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Kremlin Decree Simplifies Russian Citizenship for Transnistria Residents
President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on 15 May simplifying the procedure by which residents of the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldova can acquire Russian citizenship. the Kremlin is continuing to expand its “passportization” efforts in Transnistria to deepen Russian influence in the region, building the political-administrative scaffolding for future leverage in negotiations over Moldova’s European trajectory and over the security architecture of the western Black Sea.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Peston: Starmer at Chequers Deciding Departure Timetable
Sir Keir Starmer is at Chequers this weekend making what ITV political editor Robert Peston called a “very difficult decision”: whether to re-assert his authority and re-energise his government, or announce a timetable for a leadership election and his own departure. Cabinet ministers told Peston that some of them now believe “the die is already cast that he will have to resign in coming months, whether Burnham is elected an MP or not”, and that the Prime Minister should “acknowledge that reality” and use a time-limited period to shape a positive legacy.
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Nandy on BBC: Streeting EU Call “A Bit Odd”; Leadership Talk “Froth”
Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy dismissed Labour leadership talk as “froth and nonsense” on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg and called Wes Streeting’s Saturday EU-rejoin pitch “just a bit odd”. “I listened to what Wes had to say very carefully yesterday, and I know that he’s got a strong view about this…” she said. “Frankly, that’s one that I share. I campaigned for remain, I think it was a mistake, and I think the Brexit deal has been a real problem for us. But I don’t really understand why the sudden focus on Europe.” Asked whether Starmer would run in a contest, Nandy said: “He’s shown before that he’s up for a fight.”
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Streeting: “Britain’s Future Lies With Europe”; Will Stand in Any Contest
Wes Streeting, who resigned as Health Secretary on Thursday, used a Saturday speech to the Progress conference to call for Britain to seek a new “special relationship” with the European Union and, eventually, to rejoin: “In 2026, the British people increasingly see that in a dangerous world we must club together, both to rebuild our economy and trade, and improve our defence against the shared threats from Russian aggression and America First. The biggest economic opportunity we have is on our doorstep… Britain’s future lies with Europe — and one day back in the European Union.” Streeting confirmed he will stand in any Labour leadership contest if one is triggered.
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Reform Will Print Burnham’s “I Want to Rejoin” Words on Makerfield Leaflets
The Telegraph understands that Reform UK will make “Brexit betrayal” one of its key attack lines in the Makerfield by-election campaign, and intends to print Andy Burnham’s Labour conference 2025 words about wanting to rejoin the EU on its leaflets. Reform leader Nigel Farage said in an interview: “He would be a disaster for the economy and betray every Brexit voter in the constituency. ‘Open borders Burnham’ must be stopped.” Josh Simons, who is vacating the Makerfield seat to make way for Burnham, won it by a majority of just 5,399 over Reform UK at the 2024 general election — and Labour’s polling has weakened in the constituency since.
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Burnham to Channel 4: Reverse 40 Years of Thatcherism, Bring Utilities Back
Andy Burnham used an interview with Channel 4 News this weekend to call for the UK to go down a “completely” different path to the past 40 years, involving putting “more things back under stronger public control”. “Margaret Thatcher deregulated the whole country,” he said. “The country gave away its control of the basic things that people depend upon every day. And that was a big mistake, in my view.” Josh Simons said in an interview on Sunday that public ownership of utilities — energy, water, social housing — could be “an important part of” the Burnham pitch to voters in Makerfield and beyond.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Both leading Labour leadership contenders — Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting — have placed re-joining the European Union at the centre of their pitches. The Sunday Telegraph and Sunday Times lead on the story; the Sunday Mirror runs Burnham’s vision of mass nationalisation. Reform UK has signalled that “Brexit betrayal” will be its principal attack line in the Makerfield by-election campaign, which means the contest now turns on the EU question as much as on domestic policy.
- Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary, has become the first Cabinet minister to join Burnham on the Makerfield campaign trail in Winstanley, breaking ranks with the Prime Minister’s position. Dan Hodges reports in the Mail On Sunday that Sir Keir has told close friends he intends to stand down and set out a departure timetable, with a Cabinet minister quoted saying “he realises the current chaos is unsustainable”.
- The US and Israel are continuing intense preparations to renew the war against Iran as soon as next week, according to the New York Times report carried into Sunday by the Times of Israel. Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon continued through Saturday despite Friday’s 45-day ceasefire extension. Petrol and energy-related prices are likely to remain elevated; the Sunday Express reports that Iranian intelligence activity on UK soil is now the largest single category of hostile-state casework.
GEO Geopolitical
US and Israel Prep to Renew Iran War “Next Week” — NYT
Two Middle Eastern officials said in an interview that Israel and the United States are in their most intense preparations to date to renew the war against Iran, possibly as soon as next week, the Times of Israel reported. Options include conquering Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub and inserting commandos to extract highly enriched uranium buried since the June 2025 strikes. A senior Israeli official told Channel 12: “We’re preparing for days to weeks of fighting and waiting for Trump’s final decision. We’ll know more in 24 hours.”
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Israeli Strikes on South Lebanon Continue After Ceasefire Extension
Israel launched a wave of airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon on Saturday, the day after Friday’s 45-day ceasefire extension was announced in Washington, the Associated Press reported. The Lebanese national news agency reported strikes on at least five villages preceded by mass evacuations toward Sidon and Beirut; the Israel Defense Forces issued evacuation orders for nine villages and said it was responding to Hezbollah’s “violations of the ceasefire agreement”. Hezbollah launched at least one drone toward Israel; sirens triggered in the Meron area, no injuries reported.
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Hamas Military Chief Al-Haddad Killed in Gaza Strike, Confirmed
The Israel Defense Forces confirmed on Saturday that Friday’s airstrike in Gaza killed Izz al-Din al-Haddad, leader of Hamas’s military wing and described by Israel as “one of the last surviving architects” of the 7 October 2023 attacks, the Associated Press reported. Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem confirmed the killing. Al-Haddad had assumed command of the Hamas military council following the killing of his predecessor Mohammed Sinwar. The 7 October attacks killed around 1,200 people in southern Israel and saw more than 250 taken hostage.
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Gerasimov Making False Kupyansk Claims; 294 Drones at Ukraine Overnight
Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov made a series of false claims to senior commanders on 16 May, asserting Russian forces are advancing west of Kupyansk toward Shevchenkove despite ISW evidence that Russian forces have only infiltrated about 14% of Kupyansk itself. ISW called the claims “highly inaccurate” for the fifth consecutive month, judging the Russian command may be “allowing its own falsehoods to influence Russian operational and strategic planning”. Russia launched 294 drones at Ukraine overnight; 269 were intercepted.
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Pakistan, Iran Repatriate Vessel Crews as Back-Channel Talks Continue
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said on Saturday that Islamabad is repatriating eleven Pakistani citizens and twenty Iranian nationals from vessels seized in the high seas by the United States. The repatriation is being handled alongside ongoing Pakistani back-channel mediation with both Tehran and Washington. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi separately told reporters in New Delhi that Tehran has “no trust” in the US and will negotiate only if Washington “is serious”.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Sunday Papers: Burnham and Streeting Want to Rejoin the EU
Both Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting would seek a mandate to rejoin the European Union if elected Labour leader on its front page; the Sunday Times leads with “Britain should rejoin EU, declares Streeting”. In a speech to the Progress conference on Saturday, Streeting called leaving the EU a “catastrophic mistake”, said Britain needs a new “special relationship” with the bloc, and concluded: “Britain’s future lies with Europe — and one day back in the European Union.” Reform UK will make “Brexit betrayal” a central by-election attack.
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Nandy Breaks Ranks: First Cabinet Minister to Join Burnham Campaign
Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary, became the first sitting Cabinet minister to join Andy Burnham on the Makerfield campaign trail in Winstanley, Greater Manchester, on Saturday. The move is a substantive break from Number 10’s official position of fighting any Burnham challenge. The Mail On Sunday separately reports, via Dan Hodges, that Sir Keir Starmer has told close friends he intends to stand down and set out a departure timetable, with a Cabinet minister quoted saying “he realises the current chaos is unsustainable”.
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Burnham on Channel 4: “Completely Different Path”, Mass Nationalisation
Andy Burnham used a Saturday interview with Channel 4 News to call for the UK to go down a “completely” different path to the past 40 years, putting “more things back under stronger public control”. He said in an interview he favours nationalisation of energy, housing, water and transport; the Sunday Mirror exclusive details council-house building, electoral reform via proportional representation, and a programme of mass nationalisation. “Margaret Thatcher deregulated the whole country,” he said. “The country gave away its control of the basic things that people depend upon every day. And that was a big mistake.”
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Farage: “Open Borders Burnham”; Tory Chair Attacks “Re-litigate Brexit”
Nigel Farage said in an interview that Burnham “would be a disaster for the economy and betray every Brexit voter in the constituency. ‘Open borders Burnham’ must be stopped.” Conservative Party chairman Kevin Hollinrake said: “Whilst Labour re-litigate Brexit, Britain is not being governed.” Labour MP Dan Carden of the Blue Labour group warned his party against “whining about Brexit”: “It would be far better to focus government resources on making the most of our sovereign freedoms in trade and defence and foreign policy.”
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Mail On Sunday: Starmer Tells Allies He Intends to Stand Down
Dan Hodges writes in the Mail On Sunday, summarised by the BBC’s Sunday papers round-up, that Sir Keir Starmer has told close friends he intends to stand down and set out a timetable for his departure. A Cabinet minister is quoted saying “he realises the current chaos is unsustainable”, and that the Prime Minister will leave in a “manner of his own choosing”. The Times has separately reported the autumn defence-spending boost as part of the survival package; the Eurasia Group raised the probability of Starmer being ousted this year to 80% on Friday.