Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered a cost-of-living statement to the Commons today: a 10p increase in the tax-free mileage rate to 55p (backdated to April, the first rise in fifteen years), VAT on summer-attraction tickets cut to 5%, tariffs scrapped on 100 imported food items, free child bus travel through the summer holidays, and a £120 million package for the Stoke-on-Trent ceramics industry — politically targeted at the Labour-Reform Wigan-style battleground there. The supermarket food-price cap and energy-bill cap that had been floated were both quietly absent. The Independent’s David Maddox: this was “proof of life for a government which many think is dead”.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium must remain inside Iran, rather than being transferred abroad, Reuters reports citing Iranian sources. Khamenei also said abandoning uranium enrichment would be “100% against the country’s national interest”. The directive directly rejects the central US negotiating demand and contradicts even the conditional dilution-and-send-to-Russia proposal Iran floated this week. Trump and Vance’s Tuesday optimism reads materially differently this evening; Brent eased further to $104.40 nonetheless.
- The Institute for the Study of War assesses Iran is using the ceasefire to run a “mafia-esque protection racket” over the Strait of Hormuz, charging vessels without a bilateral agreement around $150,000 a transit to be “secured” against attacks by the Iranian navy itself. Sixteen vessels took Iran’s route through the strait in the past twenty-four hours. The normalisation strategy is designed to gradually rebuild near pre-war traffic flows before the European-led NATO escort framework can be activated in July — deliberately weakening the case for it.
Iran War — Day 83. The war started 28 February 2026. Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive today that Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile must remain inside Iran rather than being transferred abroad, Reuters reports citing Iranian sources, and called abandoning uranium enrichment “100% against the country’s national interest” — a direct rejection of the central US negotiating demand. The Institute for the Study of War yesterday assessed Iran is using the ceasefire to operate a multi-tiered Strait of Hormuz transit-fee scheme run by the IRGC, with ships outside its bilateral agreements paying approximately $150,000 per transit framed as a “security” charge; sixteen vessels took Iran’s route through the strait in the twenty-four hours to 2:00 PM ET yesterday. The Wall Street Journal separately reported on Tuesday that the US has seized the Iran-linked oil tanker Skywave in the Indian Ocean; US Marines also boarded the Iranian-flagged tanker Celestial Sea on Wednesday before releasing it after a search. US Central Command has now redirected 91 vessels and disabled four since the 13 April blockade began. The IRGC threatened on Wednesday to expand any renewed war “far beyond the region”. Hezbollah fought the first prolonged direct engagement with the IDF since the April ceasefire over Haddatha in Bint Jbeil District on Tuesday and Wednesday.
GEO Geopolitical
Khamenei: Uranium Must Stay in Iran; Abandoning Enrichment “100% Against Interests”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium must remain inside Iran, Reuters reported today citing Iranian sources. Khamenei also said abandoning uranium enrichment would be “100 percent against the country’s national interest”. The directive directly rejects the central US demand — that Iran hand over its highly enriched uranium to the United States — and contradicts even the conditional proposal Iran floated this week to dilute some of the stockpile and send the rest to Russia with a right to “reclaim it”. Iran has separately warned it may enrich uranium to 90% purity (weapons-grade) if it faces another military attack.
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ISW: Iran “Mafia-Esque Protection Racket” over Hormuz; $150,000 Fee
The Institute for the Study of War’s 20 May assessment reports that Iran is using the ceasefire period to “normalize Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz” via a multi-tiered transit-fee scheme run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Russia and China sit at the top tier as strategic partners; India and Pakistan operate under negotiated bilateral agreements; other states are case-by-case; ships linked to Iranian adversaries are denied access; ships without a bilateral framework pay around $150,000 per transit. ISW frames the fees as “part of a mafia-esque protection racket in which the vessels pay Iran so that the Iranian navy can ‘secure’ the vessels against an attack by the Iranian navy or Iranian shore-based missiles and drones”.
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US: Skywave Seized, Celestial Sea Boarded; 91 Vessels Redirected
The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that three US officials confirmed US forces seized the US-sanctioned, Iranian-linked oil tanker M/T Skywave (IMO 9328716) between 19 and 20 May after it transited the Strait of Malacca on 14 May, the Institute for the Study of War reports. US Central Command separately reported on 20 May that US Marines boarded the Iranian-flagged oil tanker M/T Celestial Sea (IMO 9397030) on suspicion of attempting to reach an Iranian port; US forces released the vessel after searching it and directing it to change course. CENTCOM has now redirected 91 commercial vessels and disabled four since the 13 April blockade on Iranian ports began.
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Pakistan-Saudi Pact: 8,000 Troops, Jet Squadron, Air Defence Sent
Reuters reported on Tuesday that Pakistan has sent 8,000 troops, a squadron of fighter jets and an air defence system to Saudi Arabia as part of the September 2025 mutual defence pact, citing three security officials and two government sources who described the force as “substantial” and “combat-ready”, the Institute for the Study of War reports. The aircraft were sent in April; the other assets at an unspecified later date. The deployment is required to uphold the pact in the context of repeated Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia. Pakistan’s simultaneous mediation between Washington and Tehran, including Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi’s 20 May Tehran visit, demonstrates Islamabad’s political-influence positioning in the region.
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Hezbollah Prolonged Engagement with IDF at Haddatha; First Since Ceasefire
Hezbollah defended against an Israel Defence Forces ground assault on the village of Haddatha in the Bint Jbeil District of southern Lebanon on 19 and 20 May, the Institute for the Study of War assesses — the first prolonged direct ground engagement between the two sides since the 16 April ceasefire began. Hezbollah used small arms, mortars, RPGs, anti-tank guided missiles and FPV drones to defend through two attacks, a seven-hour engagement on 19 May and a four-hour one on 20 May. Hezbollah claimed to have repelled the first attack but did not claim to have repelled the second; MTV Lebanon reported IDF units destroyed homes in Haddatha after the second engagement, suggesting that the IDF dislodged Hezbollah.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Reeves: 10p Mileage Rise to 55p; First Raise in 15 Years
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced in the Commons this morning a 10p per mile increase in the tax-free mileage rate, taking it from 45p to 55p, backdated to April 2026 (2026-27 tax year), the Independent reported. The increase is the first since 2011, when George Osborne raised the rate from 40p to 45p. MoneySavingExpert quoted Martin Lewis describing it as a “really important change” for drivers; the Birmingham Mail calculated the average benefit at £120 per year. The mileage increase is, the Independent argues, “the biggest help in the measures” in today’s package — specifically aimed at the “white van man and woman” constituency that Sir Keir Starmer has been referencing.
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Reeves Package: VAT Cut on Attractions, 100 Food Tariffs Removed, £120m Ceramics
The wider Reeves cost-of-living package announced today, the Independent reports, includes a VAT reduction from 20% to 5% on tickets for summer attractions (theme parks, zoos and museums); free bus travel for children over the summer holiday; the removal of import tariffs from 100 food items including biscuits and baked beans; a VAT cut on children’s meals; and a £120 million support package for the ceramics industry largely based in Stoke-on-Trent. The Stoke component is politically specific: Stoke was won by Boris Johnson’s Tories in 2019, taken back by Labour in 2024, and is now a Reform UK target. Ceramics is also important for the aerospace sector.
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Independent: “Proof of Life” for a Government “Many Think is Dead”
The Independent’s Political Editor David Maddox framed today’s Reeves announcement as “proof of life for a government which many think is dead”: “The context is that this is a government teetering on collapse. The prime minister could be replaced before the summer and his chancellor Ms Reeves will surely follow him out of the exit door.” The uncertainty, Maddox argues, “ties the hands of ministers in attempting to do anything significant” — so the package is “more about reminding people that Keir Starmer’s government is still alive and still trying to do something even if it is not much”. Reeves’s own defence is that “the fundamentals are right” and that the IMF has “upgraded the low forecast on growth”.
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Burnham (Yesterday): “100%” Understand Why People Want Starmer to Step Down
Andy Burnham’s first sit-down television interview since being confirmed as Labour’s Makerfield by-election candidate, given to ITV News’s Daniel Hewitt yesterday, continues to drive Thursday’s news cycle. Burnham said he “100%” understands why people want Sir Keir Starmer to step down: “They’re sending a message.” He confirmed that becoming an MP would be the “first step” on the path to a Labour leadership challenge. “I’ve indicated always in my role as mayor that one day I will seek to return to Westminster,” he said. The framing politely contradicts Lammy’s “back on the pitch” and Nandy’s “froth and nonsense” lines.
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Conservatives: Reeves Package “Sticking Plaster”; Mileage Welcomed
The Conservative response to today’s Reeves announcement has been to welcome the mileage rise and fuel duty extension while framing the wider package as a “sticking plaster” against the Iran-war inflation backdrop, the Independent reports. The wider Conservative attack line — Kemi Badenoch’s yesterday-PMQs claim of credit for the fuel duty “U-turn”, and her reference to Labour MPs having voted to ban new British oil and gas licences — continues. Starmer’s Wednesday-PMQs “Eurovision/FA Cup” riposte remains the operative Number 10 framing of the Conservative leadership’s positioning.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- At PMQs today Sir Keir Starmer extended the 5p fuel duty cut for the rest of 2026 and gave the haulage industry a twelve-month vehicle excise duty holiday, a package worth around £400 million which the Treasury will fully cost on Thursday. Kemi Badenoch claimed credit for a “U-turn”; Starmer told the Commons she had in her mind “won Eurovision on Saturday and scored the winning goal in the FA Cup final”. Rachel Reeves has separately dropped the supermarket food price cap push after a sharp retail backlash. The cabinet ring-fence around the Prime Minister continues to hold; the Burnham 18-June Makerfield campaign starts in earnest from tomorrow.
- The Iran deal track held through the day. Vice President JD Vance said at the White House yesterday that the United States and Iran had made “a lot of progress” in talks and that “neither side wants to see a resumption of the military campaign”; Trump told reporters he had been “an hour away” from ordering the cancelled strike. Two Chinese supertankers exited the Strait of Hormuz this morning with four million barrels of crude. The Indian rupee hit a record low overnight on US-Iran stalemate fears; Brent eased further to $105.20 (-1.1%); the FTSE 100 closed up +0.14% at 8,302.
- Andy Burnham gave his first sit-down television interview since the Makerfield confirmation, telling ITV News he “100%” understands why people want Starmer to step down: “they’re sending a message”. Burnham also said becoming an MP would be the “first step” on the path to a Labour leadership challenge. The cabinet ring-fence is operationally holding; the contest itself, when triggered, is now a question of when not whether. PMQs and the Burnham interview together marked the formal start of the 18 June by-election campaign.
Iran War — Day 82. The war started 28 February 2026. Vice President JD Vance said at a White House briefing on Tuesday the United States and Iran have made “a lot of progress” in talks and that “neither side wants to see a resumption of the military campaign”; President Donald Trump told reporters he had been “an hour away” from ordering the cancelled strike, said Iran’s leaders are “begging for a deal”, and warned a new US attack would happen “in coming days” if no agreement was reached. Two Chinese supertankers, Yuan Gui Yang and Ocean Lily, exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday morning carrying approximately four million barrels of Iraqi crude. The Iranian proposal terms via Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi include ending hostilities on all fronts (including Lebanon), the exit of US forces from areas close to Iran, war reparations, lifting of sanctions, release of frozen funds and an end to the US marine blockade; the terms are little changed from the proposal Trump rejected last week as “garbage”. The Institute for the Study of War yesterday assessed Iran is storing 42 million barrels of crude on aging floating tankers around Kharg Island and Chabahar Port — a 65% jump since the war began — with onshore storage at 64% of capacity. US Central Command has now redirected 88 vessels and disabled four since 13 April.
GEO Geopolitical
Vance: “A Lot of Progress” in Iran Talks; Neither Side Wants Resumption
US Vice President JD Vance told a White House press briefing on Tuesday that the United States and Iran have made “a lot of progress” in their talks and that “neither side wants to see a resumption of the military campaign”, Reuters reported. “We’re in a pretty good spot here,” Vance said. He acknowledged the difficulty of negotiating with a “fractured Iranian leadership”: “It’s not sometimes totally clear what the negotiating position of the team is”, adding that the US is trying to make its own red lines clear. One objective of the policy, Vance said, is to prevent a nuclear arms race spreading in the region.
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Two Chinese Supertankers Exit Hormuz with 4m Barrels of Crude
Two Chinese supertankers, the Yuan Gui Yang and Ocean Lily, exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday morning carrying approximately four million barrels of Iraqi crude oil, Reuters reported citing LSEG and Kpler shipping data. The exit was the first material commercial movement through the strait since Iran’s newly-established Persian Gulf Strait Authority began formalising its claimed transit authority on Sunday. Brent crude fell to as low as $110.16 a barrel on the news before regaining most of its losses; by the close it had eased further to $105.20, the lowest mark of the post-cancellation period.
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Iran Proposal Terms: Reparations, US Troop Exit, Sanctions Lifted
Iran’s latest peace proposal to end the war — as confirmed by Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi via IRNA news agency — comprises five linked demands, Reuters reports: ending hostilities on all fronts including Lebanon; the exit of US forces from areas close to Iran; reparations for the destruction caused by the US-Israeli attacks; lifting of sanctions; release of frozen funds; and an end to the US marine blockade of Iranian ports. The terms are “little changed” from the proposal Trump rejected last week as “garbage”. Iran is also seeking enrichment-pause durations shorter than the 20-year US demand.
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WSJ: US Seized Iran-Linked Tanker Skywave in Indian Ocean
The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the United States has seized an Iran-linked oil tanker, the Skywave, in the Indian Ocean, citing three US officials. The Skywave had been sanctioned by the United States in March for its role in transporting Iranian oil. The seizure is the second high-profile US blockade-related action of the negotiating window, following the US Treasury’s Monday designation of the Amin Exchange and 19 additional vessels linked to illicit Iranian oil exports. US Central Command has now redirected 88 commercial vessels and disabled four since the 13 April blockade began.
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ISW: Hezbollah’s FPV Drones Now Cause Majority of IDF Deaths in Lebanon
The Institute for the Study of War’s 19 May assessment reports that Hezbollah’s first-person view (FPV) drones now cause the majority of Israel Defense Forces deaths in southern Lebanon since the 16 April ceasefire began. Israeli public broadcaster Kan reports that Hezbollah FPV drones have affected between 70 and 80 percent of Israeli forces’ freedom of movement in southern Lebanon by restricting most units to nighttime movement and operations. Hezbollah is conducting an average of about 11 attacks per day, including resuming IED ambushes along the Qouzah axis in central southern Lebanon and the Taybeh-Qantara axis in the southeast on 13 May.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Starmer at PMQs: 5p Fuel Duty Freeze Extended; Haulier Tax Holiday
At Prime Minister’s Questions today Sir Keir Starmer announced an extension of the temporary 5p fuel duty cut for the rest of 2026 and a twelve-month vehicle excise duty holiday for the haulage industry, the Guardian reported. The package is expected to cost approximately £400 million; Chancellor Rachel Reeves will set out the details on Thursday. “This is not our war, but while the parties opposite wanted to jump into it, Labour will always protect working people,” Starmer told the Commons. The Treasury said the freeze would have saved the average driver £120 over two years by the end of 2026; the one-year vehicle excise pause would save £600 for a typical heavy lorry.
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FT: Reeves Drops Food Price Cap Push After Retail Backlash
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has dropped the Treasury push for UK supermarkets to agree voluntary food price caps after a sharp retail-industry backlash, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday. Retail sources told the FT that the proposal — which would have asked supermarkets to limit prices on twenty to fifty essential items including bread, milk, eggs and cheese — was “unjustified” and likely to push costs up across the board. The Independent framed the drop as Reeves having “dropped Soviet-style price caps”. The Tuesday-evening floating of the proposal in the Telegraph and Guardian was rebuffed within 24 hours.
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Burnham to ITV: “100%” Understand Why People Want Starmer to Step Down
Andy Burnham gave his first sit-down television interview since being confirmed as Labour’s Makerfield by-election candidate, telling ITV News’s Daniel Hewitt today that he “100%” understands why people want Sir Keir Starmer to step down: “They’re sending a message.” Burnham also confirmed that becoming an MP would be the “first step” on the path to a Labour leadership challenge. “I’ve indicated always in my role as mayor that one day I will seek to return to Westminster,” he said. The interview marks the formal start of the 18 June by-election campaign and the operational beginning of the leadership-contest path.
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Badenoch: “U-Turn”; Starmer Eurovision/FA Cup Final Riposte
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch sought to claim credit for the fuel-duty announcement at PMQs today, calling it a U-turn caused by her pressure on the government. Starmer rejected the framing in unusually sharp terms: “I know the leader of the opposition likes to claim responsibility for things that have got literally nothing to do with her. In her mind, she won Eurovision on Saturday and scored the winning goal in the FA Cup final.” Badenoch also pressed Starmer over Labour MPs having voted to ban new British oil and gas licences yesterday, framing the announcement as inconsistent with that vote.
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Reeves Thursday: Cost-of-Living Package Details; Iran War Funding Question
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will set out the funding details for the £400 million fuel duty + vehicle excise package on Thursday, the Treasury announced as Starmer spoke. In quotes released to coincide with the announcement, Reeves said: “The war in Iran is pushing up fuel prices here at home but after strong growth at the beginning of the year, I am stepping in to protect people at the pump.” The framing — that the package is funded out of the “fastest-growing economy in the G7” growth dividend rather than fresh borrowing — will be the operational test for the gilts market through Thursday’s announcement window.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Two Chinese supertankers exited the Strait of Hormuz this morning carrying around four million barrels of crude, Reuters reports — the first material commercial movement through the strait since Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority began formalising its “authority” over transit on Sunday. Trump told reporters yesterday he had been “an hour away” from ordering the cancelled strike; Vice President JD Vance said: “We’re in a pretty good spot here.” Brent has fallen to $106.40 (-0.8%) and gilt yields have softened further; the immediate market read is that the deal-or-strike binary is starting to resolve on the deal side.
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves is today pressuring UK supermarkets to cap grocery prices to limit Iran-war inflation, the Telegraph reports; the Guardian notes the SNP is pledging to use devolved public health powers to fix prices on 20-50 items in Scotland. Today’s PMQs will run head-to-head against the price-cap announcement and Burnham’s post-confirmation press round. The food inflation question is now the connective tissue between the Iran war and UK domestic politics; the autumn Budget envelope tightens further if cap mechanics are added on top of yesterday’s £102.7bn HS2 confirmation.
- The Institute for the Study of War assesses Iran is now storing oil on ten aging tankers around Kharg Island and Chabahar — 42 million barrels in floating storage (a 65% jump since the war began per Kpler), 64% onshore storage capacity (Kayrros), leaving only a few weeks of production space. Some NATO countries are reportedly considering escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz beginning in early July if Iran’s blockade continues. The economic squeeze on Iran is real and accelerating — but ISW cautions that Iranian leaders “care little for the economic well-being of the Iranian people beyond the impact… on regime stability”.
Iran War — Day 82. The war started 28 February 2026. Two Chinese supertankers carrying approximately four million barrels of Iraqi crude exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday morning, Reuters reports citing LSEG and Kpler data — the first material commercial movement since Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority began formalising its claimed transit authority on Sunday. President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House yesterday he had been “an hour away from making the decision to go today” on the cancelled strike before Gulf leaders intervened. Vice President JD Vance said the US-Iran talks were “in a pretty good spot”. The Institute for the Study of War assesses Iran is storing 42 million barrels of crude on aging floating tankers around Kharg Island and Chabahar — a 65% jump since the war began — with onshore storage at 64% of capacity; some NATO countries are considering escorting ships through the strait beginning in early July. The US Treasury yesterday sanctioned the Amin Exchange and 19 additional vessels linked to illicit Iranian oil exports; US Central Command has now redirected 88 commercial vessels and disabled four since 13 April. The New York Times separately reports Iran studied US fighter-jet flight patterns to enable the April 3 F-15E and A-10 shootdowns and the March 19 F-35 damage, possibly with Russian satellite-imagery support.
GEO Geopolitical
Reuters: Chinese Tankers Exit Hormuz with 4m Barrels; Trump-Vance Talk Up Deal
Two Chinese supertankers, Yuan Gui Yang and Ocean Lily, exited the Strait of Hormuz this morning carrying around four million barrels of Iraqi crude, Reuters reports citing LSEG and Kpler data, brightening hopes that the US-Israeli conflict with Iran may soon be resolved. President Trump said the war would be over “very quickly”; Vice President JD Vance told reporters at a White House briefing: “We’re in a pretty good spot here.” Vance acknowledged the difficulty of negotiating with a “fractured Iranian leadership”: “It’s not sometimes totally clear what the negotiating position of the team is.” Brent crude fell to as low as $110.16 on the announcement before regaining most of its losses.
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Trump: “An Hour Away” from Strike; Iran Leaders “Begging for a Deal”
President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday that he had been “an hour away from making the decision to go today” on the cancelled US strike against Iran, before the joint intervention of the Qatari Emir, the Saudi Crown Prince and the Emirati President, Reuters reports. Trump said Iran’s leaders are “begging for a deal” and a new US attack would happen in coming days if no agreement was reached. Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s national security committee, said on X that Trump’s pausing of the attack was due to the realisation that any move against Iran would mean “facing a decisive military response”.
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ISW: Iran Storing Oil on Aging Tankers; 42m Barrels Around Kharg, Chabahar
The Institute for the Study of War’s 19 May assessment reports that Iran has expanded its oil storage by reusing ten aging tankers to hold crude oil clustered around Kharg Island and Chabahar Port, citing United Against Nuclear Iran and the Financial Times. Maritime intelligence firm Kpler estimates Iran has 42 million crude oil barrels in floating storage in the Middle East — a 65 percent increase since the conflict began — with roughly 24 million additional barrels on empty tankers within the US blockade area. Energy intelligence firm Kayrros assesses Iran’s onshore storage has risen by about 10 million barrels to 64 percent capacity, leaving only a few weeks’ worth of oil production space.
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Bloomberg: NATO Considers Hormuz Ship Escort Plan from Early July
A senior NATO official told Bloomberg on 19 May that some NATO countries support a plan to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz beginning in early July if Iran’s blockade continues, the Institute for the Study of War reports. One NATO diplomat said several NATO countries support the idea, but that there is “not the required unanimous support to enact it”. The diplomat added some NATO countries remain reluctant to get involved in the conflict, but NATO is generally concerned about the economic consequences of keeping the strait closed. The escort plan would mark the first direct NATO operational involvement in the Iran war.
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NYT: Iran Studied US Fighter-Jet Flight Patterns; Russia Likely Assisted
The New York Times, citing a US military official, reports that Iranian military commanders studied the flight patterns of US fighter jets and bombers, likely ahead of and throughout the recent war, the Institute for the Study of War reports. The US official said the downing of a US F-15E and an A-10 on 3 April, and damage suffered to an F-35 on 19 March, indicated US flight patterns had become “too predictable”. The official added Russia may have supported the Iranian effort as part of a broader Russian effort to help Iran target US and allied assets; Russia also provided Iran with satellite imagery of US bases and modified Shahed drones during the conflict.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Reeves Urges Supermarkets to Cap Food Prices; SNP Pledges Devolved Caps
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is today pressuring UK supermarkets to cap food prices in an attempt to limit the inflation unleashed by the Iran war, the Daily Telegraph reports; the Guardian frames the announcement as supermarkets being “urged to consider voluntary price caps on essential foods”. The Scottish National party pledged to use its devolved public health powers to fix prices on 20-50 essential items in Scotland — including bread, milk, cheese and eggs — setting up a parallel intervention if Westminster cannot deliver. The food-inflation question lands at PMQs today, having already been raised by Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey at the previous PMQs session.
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Burnham Confirmed as Labour’s Makerfield Candidate; 18 June Vote
Andy Burnham was confirmed yesterday as Labour’s candidate for the 18 June Makerfield by-election after the party’s National Executive Committee rubber-stamped his selection, the Guardian reported. No other candidates had been shortlisted. Reform UK announced local plumber Robert Kenyon as its by-election candidate minutes later, with Nigel Farage framing the contest as “The Plucky Plumber taking on Open Borders Burnham”. Burnham used this morning’s post-confirmation media to set out his economic agenda, including ruling out any imminent EU return and recommitting to the fiscal rules. The contest formally begins today; the leadership question gates open on a Burnham Westminster win.
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HS2: £87.7-£102.7bn Cost Confirmed; Opening 2036-2039
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander confirmed in the Commons yesterday that HS2 will cost between £87.7 billion and £102.7 billion in 2025 prices — roughly double the previous government’s figure in 2019 terms — and that the first trains will not run between Old Oak Common and Birmingham Curzon Street until 2036-2039, up to six years late. Top speed has been cut from 360km/h to 320km/h, saving up to £2.5 billion. £44.2 billion has already been spent. Alexander said Labour inherited a “litany of failure”: “If it seems like an obscene increase in time and costs, it is because it is. If it seems like I’m angry, it is because I am.”
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Reform’s Kenyon: “Stepping Stone” Charge vs Burnham’s “Cambridge” Bio
Reform UK’s newly-unveiled Makerfield candidate Robert Kenyon — local plumber, army reservist, former NHS specialist technician — accused Andy Burnham of treating Makerfield as a “stepping stone”, the Guardian reported. Kenyon attacked “career politicians… parachuted into somewhere they have never even visited” in a Reform UK campaign video, drawing a contrast with Burnham’s Cambridge education and former special-adviser background. Nigel Farage said: “This is the ‘Plucky Plumber’ taking on ‘Open Borders Burnham’. Only Reform UK can beat Labour in this by-election. It is a David versus Goliath battle.”
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Lammy: Raise Age of Criminal Responsibility 10 to 14?
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy is considering raising the age of criminal responsibility in England and Wales from 10 to as high as 14, The Times reported yesterday. The government is “eyeing” Scotland’s threshold, under which children cannot be charged with criminal offences before age 12, as a possible starting point. The announcement lands as the first substantive domestic-policy intervention of the cabinet-ring-fence week. The current threshold of 10 is among the lowest in Europe and below the UN-recommended minimum of 14; raising it would align England and Wales with the majority of European jurisdictions.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Andy Burnham was formally confirmed today as Labour’s candidate for the 18 June Makerfield by-election — the Guardian reports the NEC rubber-stamped the selection with no other candidates shortlisted. Reform UK unveiled local plumber Robert Kenyon minutes later, with Nigel Farage framing the contest as “The Plucky Plumber taking on Open Borders Burnham”. The Independent reports a parallel YouGov poll showing 47% of Labour members would back Burnham for prime minister. The contest now formally starts; the immediate question is whether Burnham’s “ruling out any imminent EU return” pivot and his recommitment to the fiscal rules hold through the campaign.
- Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander confirmed in the Commons today that HS2 will cost between £87.7 billion and £102.7 billion in 2025 prices — roughly double the previous government’s figure in 2019 terms — and that the first trains will not run until 2036-2039, up to six years late. Top speed is being cut from 360km/h to 320km/h. Alexander’s framing – “If it seems like I’m angry, it is because I am” – positions the Labour government as inheriting a Conservative failure; the structural fiscal envelope for the autumn Budget tightens further.
- The Iran situation is in a holding pattern. President Trump’s “two or three days” window holds; the Jerusalem Post carries new analysis from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs that any renewed war would see Iran fire “tens or hundreds of missiles a day” at Israel and target Gulf oil infrastructure to drag the Gulf states into a war they have explicitly sought to avoid. Unexplained explosions were reported on Iran’s Qeshm island. Brent eased modestly to $107.30; the immediate strike risk premium continues to come off.
Iran War — Day 81. The war started 28 February 2026. President Donald Trump’s “two or three days” pause on the cancelled US military strike against Iran continues to hold; the Jerusalem Post reports that the German Institute for International and Security Affairs assesses any renewed war would see Iran fire “tens or hundreds of missiles a day” at Israel and deliberately strike Gulf oil fields, refineries and ports to force Gulf states into a war they have sought to avoid. Iran may also leverage the Bab al-Mandab Strait via the Houthis to force the United States to manage two maritime fronts. Unexplained explosions were reported on Iran’s Qeshm island in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the cause unspecified. Iran’s newly-established Persian Gulf Strait Authority continues to insist that transit through the strait requires “full coordination” with the Iranian regime, with 1,500 vessels reportedly waiting for permission to transit. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia launched 546 drones and missiles at Ukraine overnight on 17-18 May.
GEO Geopolitical
JPost/NYT: Iran Could Fire “Hundreds of Missiles a Day” if War Renews
Hamidreza Azizi of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs told the New York Times yesterday that if hostilities resume, Iran may fire “tens or hundreds of missiles per day” at Israel and the United States to “effectively confront the enemy and also change the calculation on the other side”, the Jerusalem Post reported this morning. Azizi assessed that Iranian leaders are now planning for a “short but high intensity” war — in contrast to the February-onset campaign in which they rationed missiles for several weeks — and would deliberately target Gulf oil fields, refineries and ports to drag the Gulf states into a war they have explicitly sought to avoid.
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Iran: Explosions on Qeshm Island in Strait of Hormuz; Cause Unknown
Explosions were heard on Iran’s Qeshm island in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the Jerusalem Post reported, citing the semi-official Iranian Mehr news agency, which said the cause was unknown and no further details were available. Qeshm is the largest island in the Persian Gulf and a major Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy base; it sits directly on the strait through which Iran’s newly-established Persian Gulf Strait Authority claims to control transit. No official Iranian comment has been issued; no claim of responsibility was made; Western intelligence assessments are pending. The incident comes in the third day of Trump’s “two or three day” pause on the cancelled US strike.
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Trump: “No Nuclear Weapons for Iran”; Hegseth + Caine Stand Ready
President Donald Trump’s Truth Social cancellation of last night’s scheduled US military strike against Iran — at the joint request of the Qatari Emir, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed — included a sharply more substantive sentence than the headline cancellation, the Jerusalem Post reported: “This Deal will include, importantly, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN!” Trump instructed Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Daniel Caine and the US military to remain prepared for a “full, large-scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached”.
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Iran: 1,500 Vessels Waiting for Hormuz Permission; Cables Threat Continues
The Iranian regime’s newly-established Persian Gulf Strait Authority continues to formalise its claim to manage transit through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iranian state media reporting that 1,500 vessels are currently waiting for Iranian permission to transit. IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency repeated yesterday’s threat that Iran could impose permits, oversight measures and sovereign fees on the subsea fibre-optic cables running through the strait — a step that the Institute for the Study of War assesses would breach Articles 37, 38 and 44 of UNCLOS. The cables affected include AAE-1, FALCON, GBICS and OMRAN/EPEG.
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Russia Hits Ukraine with 546 Drones, Missiles; Belarus-Russia Begin Nuclear Drills
The Institute for the Study of War confirms that Russian forces launched 546 drones and missiles at Ukraine overnight on 17-18 May, including 14 ballistic missiles and 8 cruise missiles, with 18 missiles and 16 drones striking 34 locations primarily across Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kherson and Odesa oblasts. A Chinese-owned ship approaching the port of Odesa was hit. At least 33 civilians were injured, including three children. Russia and Belarus simultaneously began joint nuclear-weapon exercises on 18 May — the most explicit Russian nuclear-signalling event of the year.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Confirmed as Labour’s Makerfield Candidate; 18 June Vote
Andy Burnham was today confirmed as Labour’s candidate for the Makerfield by-election expected on 18 June, the Guardian reported, after Labour’s National Executive Committee rubber-stamped his selection. The party said no other candidates had been shortlisted for the seat vacated by Josh Simons. Burnham said in a statement that he was “humbled” to be selected; that the Makerfield communities had been “neglected by national politics for too long”; that the people there “feel Westminster isn’t working for them and they are right”; and that the priority was making “life more affordable again”. He is widely expected to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the leadership if elected.
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Reform Unveils “Plucky Plumber” Kenyon; Farage Frames David vs Goliath
Reform UK unveiled local plumber Robert Kenyon as its Makerfield by-election candidate minutes after Burnham’s confirmation, the Guardian reported. Kenyon — an army reservist and former NHS specialist technician in Lancashire — came within 5,399 votes of Josh Simons in 2024. Nigel Farage said: “This is the ‘Plucky Plumber’ taking on ‘Open Borders Burnham’. Only Reform UK can beat Labour in this by-election. It is a David versus Goliath battle.” Kenyon, in a Reform video, accused Burnham of treating Makerfield as a “stepping stone” and attacked “career politicians… parachuted into somewhere they have never even visited”.
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HS2: £87.7-£102.7bn Cost, Opening Pushed to 2036-2039
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander confirmed in the Commons today that the HS2 high-speed rail line will cost between £87.7 billion and £102.7 billion in 2025 prices — roughly double the previous government’s figure in 2019 terms — and that the first trains will not run between Old Oak Common and Birmingham Curzon Street until 2036-2039, up to six years late, the BBC reported. The top speed has been cut from the original 360km/h to 320km/h, saving up to £2.5 billion and allowing delivery a year earlier. £44.2 billion has already been spent. Alexander said Labour had inherited a “litany of failure”; “If it seems like an obscene increase in time and costs, it is because it is. If it seems like I’m angry, it is because I am.”
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Alexander: “I’m Angry”; “Litany of Failure” Inherited from Tories
The Transport Secretary’s Commons statement on HS2 today set the Labour government’s framing on inherited infrastructure failure with unusual sharpness: “Instead of signalling the country’s ambition, HS2 became a signal of the country’s decline.” “If it seems like I’m angry, it is because I am.” Heidi Alexander told the Commons it could now cost “almost as much to cancel the line as it would to finish it, while delivering none of the benefits”. The cost framing — a£100bn rail project versus NASA’s £79bn Artemis Moon mission, per the i Paper’s lead on Tuesday — is the political variable for the autumn Budget.
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Lammy: Raise Age of Criminal Responsibility from 10 to 14?
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy is considering lifting the age of criminal responsibility in England and Wales from 10 to as high as 14, The Times reported this morning. The government is “eyeing Scotland’s law”, under which children cannot be charged with criminal offences before age 12, as a possible starting point. The intervention — the first substantive domestic-policy announcement of the new political week — lands alongside the cabinet’s public ring-fence around the Prime Minister, with Lammy yesterday morning on Sky News saying “there will be no timetable for departure” and that the party needed to “get back on the pitch”.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- President Donald Trump cancelled the scheduled US military strike on Iran that had been set for today, announcing on Truth Social late last night that the Qatari Emir, Saudi Crown Prince and Emirati President asked him to suspend for “two or three days” while negotiations continue. The Gulf leaders warned, per Axios, that they would “pay the price” if the strike went ahead. Trump kept the US military prepared for a “full, large-scale assault” on short notice if talks fail. Brent has eased to $107.95 (-2.0%) and the FTSE 100 is set to open firmer; the immediate war risk premium is coming off across asset classes — but this is a three-day window, not a settlement.
- Russian forces launched the largest single overnight strike on Ukraine in over a month, the Institute for the Study of War confirms: 546 drones and missiles, including 14 ballistic missiles, with 18 missiles and 16 drones striking 34 locations primarily across Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. A Chinese-owned ship approaching Odesa was hit. Belarus and Russia simultaneously began joint nuclear-weapon exercises — the strongest Russian signalling response yet to Ukraine’s 16-17 May strikes on Moscow.
- Sir Keir Starmer’s Tuesday morning is dominated by a YouGov poll in The Times showing Burnham would defeat him 59% to 37% in a head-to-head leadership ballot of Labour members; the Daily Mail’s “Slippery Burnham’s two u-turns in one day” on Brexit and the fiscal rules now defines the Burnham-pitch counter-narrative. The Financial Times leads on Burnham’s pledge to “not rip up the fiscal rules” — markets will price that as the most material variable today.
Iran War — Day 81. The war started 28 February 2026. President Donald Trump cancelled the scheduled US military strike on Iran that had been planned for today, announcing on Truth Social on 18 May that Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed asked him to suspend the strike “for two or three days”; Trump instructed US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine and the US military to remain prepared for a “full, large-scale assault” on short notice. Iran’s latest counterproposal, the Institute for the Study of War assesses, does not contain commitments on suspending uranium enrichment or handing over its highly enriched uranium stockpile and is considered “insufficient” by Washington. Iran today formalises its claimed authority over the Strait of Hormuz through a new Persian Gulf Strait Authority; IRGC-affiliated media are simultaneously threatening permits and sovereign fees on the subsea fibre-optic cables transiting the strait. Russia launched 546 drones and missiles at Ukraine overnight, including 14 ballistic missiles, with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast the primary target and Belarus-Russia joint nuclear-weapon exercises beginning the same day.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Cancels Iran Strike at Gulf Leaders’ Request; “Two or Three Days”
President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social on 18 May that he has cancelled the scheduled US military strike against Iran that had been planned for today, the Institute for the Study of War reported. Trump said Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed had asked him to suspend the strike “for two or three days” to allow ongoing negotiations. CNBC quoted Trump: “We will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow.” A US official told Axios the three Gulf leaders warned they would “pay the price” if the strike went ahead, fearing Iranian retaliation against their energy and oil infrastructure.
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ISW: Iran’s Counterproposal “Does Not Meet” US Demands on Enrichment
The Institute for the Study of War assesses that the revised Iranian counterproposal handed to the US through Pakistan on Monday “does not appear to meet US demands”. A senior US official and a source briefed on the matter told Axios that Iran’s counterproposal does not contain any commitment about suspending uranium enrichment or handing over its existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium — the central US demand. The US official said the Trump administration considers Iran’s proposal “insufficient”. IRGC-affiliated media said “major disagreements” remain and that Iran would never accept “an end to the war in return for nuclear commitments”.
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Iran Establishes Persian Gulf Strait Authority; Threatens Hormuz Subsea Cables
Iran is formalising and institutionalising its claimed control over transit through the Strait of Hormuz in contravention of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Institute for the Study of War assesses. The newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) stated on X yesterday that it serves as the “legal institution and representative authority” for managing transit through the strait, claims that navigation through the designated zone requires “full coordination” with the authority, and warns that unauthorised transit will be considered illegal. Iranian state media reports 1,500 vessels currently waiting for Iranian permission to transit. IRGC-affiliated Fars News said Iran could impose “permits, oversight measures, and sovereign fees” on subsea fibre-optic cables.
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Russia Hits Ukraine with 546 Drones and Missiles; Belarus-Russia Begin Nuclear Drills
Russian forces conducted the largest single overnight strike on Ukraine in more than a month, launching 546 drones and missiles on the night of 17-18 May, the Institute for the Study of War confirms. The package included 14 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and S-400 air defence missiles repurposed for surface strike, 8 Iskander-K cruise missiles, and 524 Shahed, Gerbera, Italmas and Parodiya drones. Ukrainian air defences downed 4 cruise missiles and 503 drones; 18 missiles and 16 drones struck 34 locations across Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kherson and Odesa oblasts. A Chinese-owned ship approaching the port of Odesa was hit. Russia and Belarus simultaneously began joint nuclear-weapon exercises on 18 May.
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Zelensky/SZRU: 11 Russian Banks Preparing to Liquidate; 400 Oil Wells Closed
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on 18 May that Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) has obtained Russian documents showing that one unspecified Russian oil company alone has had to close 400 active oil wells, Russia has reduced oil refining by at least 10% so far in 2026, 11 Russian financial institutions are preparing to liquidate and another 8 banking institutions cannot internally resolve their accumulated problems, the Institute for the Study of War reports. Russia’s federal budget deficit is already almost $80 billion in the first five months of 2026. Russian Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov also publicly conceded labour shortages and sanctions are now forcing downward GDP revisions.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
The Times/YouGov: Burnham 59%, Starmer 37% in Head-to-Head Members’ Ballot
The Times leads its Tuesday front page with a YouGov poll showing Andy Burnham would defeat Sir Keir Starmer 59% to 37% in a head-to-head ballot of Labour Party members, the BBC Newspaper Review reports. The poll lands as the cabinet’s public ring-fence around the Prime Minister starts to look operational rather than substantive: Sir Keir’s “I won’t walk away” leads the Daily Mirror’s front page; the Daily Telegraph runs “Starmer sabotages Burnham on Brexit”; the Daily Mail leads with “Slippery Burnham’s two u-turns in one day” under a “Labour’s civil war” banner; the Guardian: “Burnham: Labour must change to regain trust”.
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FT: Burnham Tries to Ease Markets; Won’t “Rip Up Fiscal Rules”
The Financial Times leads with Andy Burnham’s pledge to “reassure markets he will not rip up the UK’s fiscal rules”, even while vowing to “reverse privatisation and austerity”. The paper reports that Burnham’s remarks were specifically designed to “reassure investors that he would not embark on irresponsible borrowing policies” ahead of the Makerfield selection. Sterling firmed modestly into the Tuesday open at $1.3310 and ten-year gilt yields softened from Friday’s 5.18% closing peak; the FT’s framing is that the political risk premium is now coming off, but the structural wartime-fiscal premium remains.
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Telegraph: “Starmer Sabotages Burnham” on Brexit; Rejoin Prospect Raised
The Daily Telegraph leads Tuesday with “Starmer sabotages Burnham on Brexit”, the BBC reports. The paper writes that Sir Keir Starmer “has raised the prospect of rejoining the EU” while Burnham “seeks to keep Leave voters on side”, despite Burnham’s previous explicit desire to reverse the 2016 referendum. Sir Keir has been pursuing closer ties with the bloc but has stuck to Labour’s election manifesto pledges to “stay outside the EU”, with “no return to the single market, the customs union, or freedom of movement”. The Telegraph framing brackets the Streeting-Burnham EU split with a now-strategic Number 10 reading.
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Mirror: Starmer’s “Defiant Message”; “I Won’t Walk Away”
The Daily Mirror leads Tuesday with “Starmer’s defiant message: I won’t walk away”, the BBC Newspaper Review reports, quoting Sir Keir as “defiant” and saying he “rejects call to set out departure timetable” despite pressure from Labour MPs and senior ministers. The Daily Mirror also embeds the now-viral “best of buddies” photograph of Alan Titchmarsh, David Beckham and King Charles III at the Chelsea Flower Show. The Times reports that Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy has floated lifting the age of criminal responsibility “from ten to as high as 14” in England and Wales, mirroring Scotland’s law where children cannot be charged before turning 12.
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i Paper: HS2 to Cost More than NASA’s Artemis Moon Mission
The i Paper leads Tuesday with Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander’s planned release today of a review on HS2 showing the “stripped back high-speed link” will become “the most expensive rail line in the world”, with delays and higher costs set to reach around £100 billion — more than NASA’s £79 billion projected cost for the Artemis programme to land astronauts on the Moon. The BBC’s Newspaper Review reports the Alexander announcement is timed to take a domestic-policy story into the Tuesday news cycle alongside the leadership question. The Daily Express separately reports that 66% of Britons want to keep the pension triple lock.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Pakistan handed Washington a revised Iranian proposal for ending the war today, but Trump still meets his national security advisers tomorrow to discuss options for resuming military action. Defence Minister Israel Katz is on the record waiting for the “green light from the United States”; the Israeli airstrike on Baalbeck overnight killed a Palestinian Islamic Jihad commander as Lebanon’s civilian death toll closes on 3,000. Markets read this as escalation risk rising, not falling: Brent closed at $110.20, gilt yields softened modestly after the UK political risk premium came off, and sterling firmed to $1.3290.
- Sir Keir Starmer told broadcasters today that he is “not going to” set a departure timetable and will “not walk away” from Number 10. Andy Burnham used a Leeds conference speech to retreat further on the EU: “I am not proposing that the UK considers rejoining the EU… I respect the decision that was made at the referendum.” The leadership question is now formally locked in: Starmer stays through Makerfield; the Brexit question is parked; the contest, when and if it comes, will be fought on public ownership and the “serious rewiring” Burnham promised today, not on EU membership.
- Ukraine’s 16-17 May strike series — confirmed by the Institute for the Study of War today — hit the Angstrem semiconductor plant, the Moscow Oil Refinery, two oil pumping stations and a runway at Sheremetyevo, with 51 flights diverted. Russian milbloggers are openly calling for retaliation with tactical nuclear weapons; the Kremlin’s public response has been muted. The Defence Minister Andrei Belousov congratulated units for the claimed seizure of Borova despite ISW assessing the area is still contested. The implication for European supply chains is that long-range strike escalation now spans both the Iran and Russia theatres simultaneously.
Iran War — Day 80. The war started 28 February 2026. Pakistan today handed the United States a revised Iranian proposal for ending the war, Reuters reported, with the Pakistani source warning “we don’t have much time”; Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed Tehran’s views had been “conveyed to the American side through Pakistan”. Trump is expected to meet top national security advisers tomorrow to discuss options for resuming military action. An overnight Israeli strike near the eastern Lebanese city of Baalbeck killed a Palestinian Islamic Jihad commander, Wael Mahmoud Abd al-Halim, and his daughter, while the IDF said it had struck more than thirty Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon in the past twenty-four hours and Lebanon’s health ministry put the civilian death toll at 2,988. The Institute for the Study of War confirmed that Ukrainian strikes on 16-17 May hit the Angstrem semiconductor plant at Elma Technopark in Zelenograd, the Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya Raion, oil pumping stations at Solnechnogorsk and Volodarsk, and triggered a runway fire at Sheremetyevo International Airport that forced fifty-one flight diversions.
GEO Geopolitical
Pakistan Hands US Revised Iranian Proposal; “We Don’t Have Much Time”
Pakistan today shared with the United States a revised proposal from Iran to end the war in the Middle East, a Pakistani source told Reuters on Monday, warning that the two sides “don’t have much time” to narrow their differences. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei later confirmed that Tehran’s views had been “conveyed to the American side through Pakistan”, but gave no details. The Pakistani source said the two sides “keep changing their goalposts”. Trump is expected to meet top national security advisers tomorrow to discuss options for resuming military action, Axios reported.
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Israel Kills Palestinian Islamic Jihad Commander in Baalbeck Strike
An Israeli airstrike near the eastern Lebanese city of Baalbeck overnight killed a commander of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad militant group, Wael Mahmoud Abd al-Halim, along with his daughter, Lebanese security sources told Reuters. The Israeli military said it had killed the commander and had taken steps to “mitigate the risk of harm to civilians”, making no mention of his daughter. Hezbollah responded by launching an explosive drone at an Iron Dome air defence position in the Galilee region of northern Israel, and the Israeli military said the drone “crossed into Israeli territory”. Lebanon’s National News Agency reported Israeli airstrikes on more than half a dozen further locations in south Lebanon.
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Saudi Arabia Intercepts Three Drones from Iraqi Airspace; Iran “Mechanism” for Strait
Saudi Arabia said on Sunday it had intercepted three drones that entered the kingdom from Iraqi airspace, Reuters reported, alongside the Barakah strike on the UAE. Riyadh warned it would take the “necessary operational measures” to respond to any attempt to violate its sovereignty and security. The two parallel incidents bring the Gulf-state defensive picture sharply into focus: drones launched from Iraq toward Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been a recurring pattern through the conflict. Iranian parliament national security committee head Ebrahim Azizi separately told reporters Tehran had prepared a “mechanism to manage traffic through the strait along a designated route” that would be unveiled “soon” — an attempt to formalise Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz.
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ISW: Ukraine Hit Angstrem, Moscow Oil Refinery, Two Pumping Stations; Sheremetyevo Runway Fire
The Institute for the Study of War’s 17 May Russian campaign assessment confirms that Ukrainian forces struck the Angstrem Semiconductor Plant at the Elma Technopark in Zelenograd, northwest of Moscow City — a plant producing microelectronics for high-precision weapons — alongside the Moscow Oil Refinery in Kapotnya Raion and the Solnechnogorsk and Volodarsk oil pumping stations, with a separate strike triggering a runway fire at Sheremetyevo International Airport. Russia’s Transportation Ministry confirmed 51 flight diversions and said two-thirds of flights from Moscow airports were delayed by more than two hours. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin acknowledged the refinery strike but claimed only the “checkpoint” was hit.
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Reuters: Pakistan Deploys Jet Squadron, Thousands of Troops to Saudi Arabia
Reuters reported exclusively today that Pakistan has deployed a jet squadron and thousands of troops to Saudi Arabia in support of Riyadh during the Iran war, in the most concrete signal yet that the Pakistani mediation track between Washington and Tehran is being run in parallel with material Pakistani support to Iran’s Sunni-state neighbour. The deployment supplements existing Pakistani assistance to the Saudi armed forces and is being treated by analysts as a hedge against the war’s expansion into a wider Sunni-Shia regional contest. The deployment was reported in the same news cycle as Saudi Arabia’s interception of three drones from Iraqi airspace.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Starmer: “I am Not Going to Walk Away”; No Timetable Even if Burnham Wins
Sir Keir Starmer told broadcasters this afternoon that he would not set out a timetable for his departure even if Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election: “I’m not going to do that.” The Prime Minister repeated that he would “not walk away” from the job and said the by-election was “a fight between Labour and Reform”, adding: “I will be backing 100% whoever the [Labour] candidate is.” The Guardian’s Andrew Sparrow framed the day in his live-blog headline: “I am not going to walk away, says Starmer as Burnham pitches debate on how politics needs to change.”
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Burnham in Leeds: “I Respect Brexit”; Not Proposing EU Rejoin
Andy Burnham used a conference speech in Leeds today to pledge not to “re-run” Brexit arguments and to formally state that he is not proposing the UK rejoins the European Union, the BBC reported. “My view is that Brexit has been damaging, but I also believe the last thing we should do right now is re-run those arguments,” the Greater Manchester mayor said. “I am not proposing that the UK considers rejoining the EU. I respect the decision that was made at the referendum and it is going to undermine everything I have said about strengthening democracy if we don’t respect that vote.” The Liberal Democrats accused Burnham of “U-turning before he’s even been elected”.
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Burnham: “Serious Rewiring”, Transfer Money from “Bloated National State”
In the same Leeds speech, Burnham set out the affirmative case for what a Burnham-led Labour Party would do: a transfer of money and resources from “a bloated national state” to “a malnourished local one”, the BBC reported. “We have hollowed out councils and have created an unaccountable state, where too much is delivered by outsourced agencies outside local councillors’ control,” Burnham said. The country, he said, needed “serious rewiring”: a vote for him would be a “vote to change Labour”, and Labour itself needed to change to “regain people’s trust”. The framing positions the Burnham leadership pitch on devolution and public ownership rather than the EU question.
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Lammy on Sky: “No Timetable”; Time for Labour to Get “Back on the Pitch”
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy told Sky News on Monday morning that “there will be no timetable for departure” for the Prime Minister, Reuters reported, and went on to tell the BBC that it was time for the Labour Party to “get back on the pitch after days of introspection and infighting”. Lammy added that he had spoken to the Prime Minister twice on Sunday. The intervention served as the coordinated Number 10 opening line, which Starmer himself confirmed in broadcast interviews later in the day.
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FT: Gilts Stabilise After Cabinet Voices Support for Starmer
The Financial Times reports this afternoon that UK gilts stabilised through Monday after the cabinet coalesced publicly behind Sir Keir Starmer, with the ten-year gilt yield easing modestly from Friday’s 5.18% close. The piece frames the political risk premium as having come partially off, after a fortnight in which the rising probability of a Burnham-led government had been the most material variable pricing UK assets. The Times separately reports that the International Monetary Fund warned Labour today to “stick to fiscal rules or risk market revolt”, picking up the same diagnostic frame from the multilateral side.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy told Sky News this morning there will be “no timetable for departure”, settling overnight reporting from ITV, the i Paper and the Mail On Sunday that Sir Keir Starmer was about to announce his exit. The choice is now locked in: Starmer will fight the Makerfield by-election and any contest that follows; markets will price a more drawn-out leadership question rather than an imminent handover, and gilt yields will likely give back some of last week’s panic premium at the open.
- The Institute for the Study of War assesses that Sunday’s drone strike on the United Arab Emirates’ Barakah Nuclear Power Plant was “likely” Iranian or Iranian-backed, executed via a deliberately misleading western-border approach used by Iran before at Abqaiq in 2019. IRGC-aligned media in Tehran are simultaneously trying to pin the strike on Saudi Arabia. The Emirates is investigating; Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed has called it a “treacherous terrorist attack”. Brent and gold are likely to open higher; Gulf carriers will continue to route around the Strait of Hormuz.
- Burnham retreats on the EU after the Saturday and Sunday Streeting backlash: his spokesman tells the Telegraph he is campaigning on local issues in Makerfield and will “not stand on a national manifesto”. The Times reports that allies of Burnham now accuse Wes Streeting of “sabotage”, with one ally telling the paper: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election.” The Makerfield contest is no longer a referendum on Brexit — it is a referendum on whether Reform takes the seat from Labour at all.
Iran War — Day 80. The war started 28 February 2026. The Institute for the Study of War assesses that Sunday’s drone strike on the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in Abu Dhabi was “likely” carried out by Iranian or Iranian-backed forces using a deliberate westerly approach to obscure responsibility, replicating the 2019 Abqaiq pattern; IRGC-aligned outlets in Tehran are attempting to attribute the attack to Saudi Arabia instead. Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed has called the strike a “treacherous terrorist attack”; the UAE is investigating and reserves the right to respond. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said over the weekend that the IDF is “ready in defence and offence, and the targets are marked”, with Israel “awaiting a green light from the United States” for renewed strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and the regime. The New York Times reports Iraqi officials confirming a second clandestine Israeli outpost in the Iraqi desert. Ukraine launched its largest overnight drone attack on the Moscow region in more than a year, killing at least four including three near the capital and triggering a fire at a high-precision weapons plant; Russia in turn struck Odesa, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson overnight, killing one and injuring more than 30 including children.
GEO Geopolitical
ISW: Barakah Drone Strike “Likely” Iranian; Tehran Tries to Blame Riyadh
The Institute for the Study of War’s 17 May Iran update assesses that “likely Iranian or Iranian-backed forces” launched the three drones that targeted Abu Dhabi’s Barakah Nuclear Power Plant on Sunday, with two intercepted by UAE air defences and one striking an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter. ISW notes that Iran has previously used a westerly approach to obscure responsibility, as in the 2019 Abqaiq attack on Saudi oil facilities, where drones launched from Iranian territory approached from the west. IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency and Defa Press are now openly attempting to attribute the Sunday strike to Saudi Arabia.
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Katz: Israel “Awaiting Green Light” to Renew Iran War, “Targets are Marked”
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said over the weekend during a security assessment that the IDF is “ready in defence and offence, and the targets are marked”, and that Israel is “awaiting a green light from the United States” to resume the war on Iran, the Times of Israel reported. Katz framed the operational objectives in unusually explicit terms: “complete the elimination of the Khamenei dynasty, the initiator of the extermination plan against Israel”, and “return Iran to the age of darkness and stone by blowing up central energy and electricity facilities and crushing national economic infrastructure”. The renewed campaign, he said, would be “different and deadly and will add devastating blows in the most painful places”.
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US Tables Five Conditions to Tehran; ISW: Positions “Fundamentally Incompatible”
The Institute for the Study of War’s 17 May assessment, citing IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency, reports that the United States has tabled five main conditions in response to Iran’s 10 May counterproposal: a rejection of war reparations, a requirement that Iran transfer 400 kilograms of uranium to the United States, a limit to one operational Iranian nuclear facility, no release of more than 25 percent of frozen Iranian assets, and no guarantees against future US or Israeli attacks. ISW concludes that “the United States and Iran continue to pursue fundamentally incompatible negotiating positions”.
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NYT: Iraqi Officials Confirm Second Israeli Outpost in Iraqi Desert
Two Iraqi officials, including senior Wisdom Movement official Hassan Fadaam, told the New York Times on 17 May that Israel built two clandestine outposts in the Iraqi desert in late 2024 — not one, as previously reported by the Wall Street Journal. The first outpost, near al Nukhayb in Anbar Province, was used by the IDF for air support, refuelling and “medical treatment” during the 12-day war in June 2025, the NYT reports. Israeli commando units and search-and-rescue teams were deployed there before the start of the recent US-Israeli campaign in Iran, ready to recover Israeli pilots if Iranian forces shot down Israeli fighter jets. The first outpost is no longer operational; the second outpost’s location and status remain undisclosed.
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Ukraine Hits Moscow with Biggest Drone Attack in Over a Year; Four Dead
Ukraine launched its largest overnight drone attack on the Moscow region in more than a year on Sunday, killing at least four people including three near the capital, Reuters reported. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said air defences had destroyed 81 drones headed for Moscow since midnight; twelve people were wounded, mostly near the entrance to Moscow’s oil refinery. Russia’s defence ministry said more than 1,000 Ukrainian drones had been downed across the country in the past 24 hours. Russia hit Odesa, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson overnight on 17-18 May in response, killing one and injuring more than 30 including a 2-year-old girl, a 10-year-old boy and an 11-year-old boy.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Lammy on Sky: “No Timetable for Departure”; Starmer Will Stay
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy told Sky News on Monday morning that Sir Keir Starmer will not set out a timetable for his departure from Downing Street, Reuters reported. “There will be no timetable for departure,” Lammy said, adding that he had spoken to the Prime Minister twice on Sunday. The remarks formally close down the weekend reporting from ITV’s Robert Peston, the i Paper and the Mail On Sunday, all of which suggested Starmer was actively weighing whether to set a date for his own exit, and lock in the path through Makerfield. Starmer will fight any contest if one is triggered; he will not pre-announce his own departure.
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Telegraph: Burnham Retreats on EU Rejoin; “Local Issues” in Makerfield
Andy Burnham is distancing himself from calls to rejoin the European Union after the weekend Streeting-Nandy backlash, the Daily Telegraph reports on its front page on Monday. A spokesman for the Greater Manchester mayor told the paper that Burnham will be campaigning on local issues in the Makerfield by-election and will not stand on a “national manifesto”. The Financial Times leads with the same line: “Burnham plays down rejoining EU as Labour battle reopens Brexit wounds”, quoting Burnham saying he is “not advocating” an immediate rejoin move but acknowledging there is a “case” for it long-term.
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Times: Burnham Allies Accuse Streeting of “Sabotage”
The Times leads Monday on Burnham’s allies formally accusing former Health Secretary Wes Streeting of “sabotage”, telling the paper that his Saturday call to rejoin the EU reopens Labour’s Brexit battles and plays directly into Reform UK’s hands ahead of the Makerfield by-election. One Burnham ally is quoted: “Wes’s only hope at becoming the next leader is for Andy to lose the by-election.” A cabinet minister tells the paper that the public battle between Streeting and Burnham as frontrunners is, paradoxically, making Sir Keir Starmer look like an “island of stability and sanity”.
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Guardian: Burnham Faces “Perilous” Race in Makerfield
The Guardian leads Monday with Burnham’s own allies describing his Makerfield by-election bid as “perilous”. While the Greater Manchester mayor is likely to be formally confirmed as Labour’s candidate this week, the paper says he faces an “uphill battle” to beat Reform UK, with polls suggesting he is only marginally ahead. The outcome, the Guardian writes, will determine not only the immediate political future of Sir Keir Starmer but also “the viability of Labour as a whole”. The i Paper reports the Prime Minister spent the weekend at Chequers in discussions with aides over whether to “revive” the government or announce his exit; Lammy’s Sky News intervention now formally settles that question.
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FT: WHO Declares Ebola Public Health Emergency Over DRC Outbreak
The World Health Organization has declared the latest Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo a public health emergency of international concern, the Financial Times reports on its front page on Monday, alongside its Burnham-EU lead. The WHO designation triggers expanded international coordination and funding for outbreak response, and is the first such Ebola-related declaration in several years. The BBC’s Monday-morning Newspaper Review summary highlights the FT framing as a counter-cycle to the political-leadership story dominating the rest of Fleet Street.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- A drone strike on the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the United Arab Emirates on Sunday set fire to an electrical generator outside the plant’s perimeter, with no radiological release. The IAEA expressed “grave concern”; no group claimed responsibility but UAE authorities have previously attributed roughly 3,000 such attacks since 28 February to Iran or its proxies. UAE Al-Ain media reported the same evening that the Israeli army “continues its preparations to resume the war”, including planned strikes on Iranian energy and infrastructure and against high-ranking officials — meaning Monday’s oil and gas open is set to price a meaningfully higher probability of a Gulf re-escalation.
- Sir Keir Starmer is at Chequers this weekend deciding, per ITV’s Robert Peston, whether to announce a timetable for his own departure as Prime Minister. Cabinet ministers split: one bloc says “the die is already cast” and he should shape a positive legacy; another insists he should stay to avoid “mayhem” if Burnham loses Makerfield. Colleagues “don’t know what he will decide”. A Sunday-night statement, if it comes, would re-price gilts and sterling at Monday’s open.
- Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy used Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg to dismiss the leadership talk as “froth and nonsense” and to call Wes Streeting’s Saturday EU-rejoin pitch “a bit odd”. Streeting allies hit back that his willingness to talk EU membership is precisely the kind of risk Number 10 will not take. The Labour leadership contest, if triggered after Makerfield, will now be fought on EU re-entry as much as on the cost of living — with Reform UK preparing to print Burnham’s 2025 “I want to rejoin it” quote on Makerfield by-election leaflets.
Iran War — Day 79. The war started 28 February 2026. A drone strike on Sunday hit an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the UAE’s Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in Al-Dhafra Region, the Jerusalem Post and Associated Press report — the IAEA registered “grave concern”, no radiological release was detected, and the Emirati authorities did not formally attribute the attack but framed it within the “repeated and unjustified Iranian terrorist attacks” the country has faced since 28 February. The Israel Defense Forces named the officer killed in Friday’s Hezbollah drone strike as 24-year-old Capt. Maoz Israel Recanati of the Golani Brigade’s 12th Battalion, the seventh IDF soldier killed in southern Lebanon since the ceasefire began. The Institute for the Study of War assesses the Russian General Staff’s May 16 battlefield report as “highly inaccurate” for the fifth consecutive month; Russia launched 294 drones at Ukraine overnight on 16-17 May, of which 269 were intercepted, and Ukrainian forces struck the Azot chemical plant in Nevinnomyssk, southern Russia’s largest ammonia and nitrogen-fertiliser producer.
GEO Geopolitical
Drone Strike Sparks Fire at UAE’s Barakah Nuclear Plant; IAEA “Grave Concern”
A drone struck an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the UAE’s Al-Dhafra Region on Sunday, sparking a fire that the Abu Dhabi Media Office said caused no injuries and no radiological release, the Jerusalem Post reported. The Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation confirmed that the plant’s essential systems are operating normally. The Associated Press said the strike “highlighted the risk of renewed war as the Iran ceasefire remains tenuous”. No group claimed responsibility; the International Atomic Energy Agency expressed “grave concern” and said it is following the situation closely.
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IDF Officer Cpt. Recanati Killed; 100 Hezbollah Targets Struck Over Weekend
The Israel Defense Forces named the officer killed in Friday’s Hezbollah drone strike in southern Lebanon as 24-year-old Capt. Maoz Israel Recanati, a platoon commander in the Golani Brigade’s 12th Battalion from Itamar, the Times of Israel reported. A statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Recanati had been due to marry his fiancée, Rani, in a month: “We all embrace her and his loved ones during this difficult time.” The IDF said it struck approximately 100 Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon over the weekend, including surveillance posts and weapon depots, and shot down several Hezbollah drones that triggered sirens in Western Galilee border communities.
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UAE Al-Ain: Israel Preparing Renewed Iran Strike on Energy and Officials
UAE outlet Al-Ain reported on Sunday that Israel is on “high alert in anticipation of a possible resumption of war with Iran”, citing a source briefed on Israeli military planning carried by the Jerusalem Post. The reported plan would “include damage to national infrastructure, energy sites, and power plants, and Israeli aircraft will also attempt to target high-ranking Iranian officials”. Israel is reportedly anticipating Iranian strikes in response. The reporting comes alongside Israeli media discussion of an imminent decision window and follows last week’s New York Times account, carried in Saturday’s Times of Israel, that US and Israeli officials were in their most intense renewal-preparation phase to date.
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ISW: Gerasimov’s Battlefield Report “Highly Inaccurate”; Ukraine Hits Azot Plant
The Institute for the Study of War’s 16 May campaign assessment reports that Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov made a series of false claims to the Western Grouping of Forces, claiming Russian troops are advancing west of Kupyansk toward Shevchenkove despite ISW’s assessment that Russian forces have infiltrated only about 14.2% of Kupyansk. ISW judged the pattern “highly inaccurate” for the fifth consecutive month and warned the Russian command “is either unaware of or unwilling to admit the realities of the battlefield even to itself, and is therefore allowing its own falsehoods to influence Russian operational and strategic planning”.
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Kremlin Decree Simplifies Russian Citizenship for Transnistria Residents
President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on 15 May simplifying the procedure by which residents of the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldova can acquire Russian citizenship, the Institute for the Study of War reported. ISW assesses that the Kremlin is continuing to expand its “passportization” efforts in Transnistria to deepen Russian influence in the region, building the political-administrative scaffolding for future leverage in negotiations over Moldova’s European trajectory and over the security architecture of the western Black Sea.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Peston: Starmer at Chequers Deciding Departure Timetable
Sir Keir Starmer is at Chequers this weekend making what ITV political editor Robert Peston called a “very difficult decision”: whether to re-assert his authority and re-energise his government, or announce a timetable for a leadership election and his own departure. Cabinet ministers told Peston that some of them now believe “the die is already cast that he will have to resign in coming months, whether Burnham is elected an MP or not”, and that the Prime Minister should “acknowledge that reality” and use a time-limited period to shape a positive legacy.
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Nandy on BBC: Streeting EU Call “A Bit Odd”; Leadership Talk “Froth”
Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy dismissed Labour leadership talk as “froth and nonsense” on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg and called Wes Streeting’s Saturday EU-rejoin pitch “just a bit odd”, the Guardian reported. “I listened to what Wes had to say very carefully yesterday, and I know that he’s got a strong view about this…” she said. “Frankly, that’s one that I share. I campaigned for remain, I think it was a mistake, and I think the Brexit deal has been a real problem for us. But I don’t really understand why the sudden focus on Europe.” Asked whether Starmer would run in a contest, Nandy said: “He’s shown before that he’s up for a fight.”
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Streeting: “Britain’s Future Lies With Europe”; Will Stand in Any Contest
Wes Streeting, who resigned as Health Secretary on Thursday, used a Saturday speech to the Progress conference to call for Britain to seek a new “special relationship” with the European Union and, eventually, to rejoin: “In 2026, the British people increasingly see that in a dangerous world we must club together, both to rebuild our economy and trade, and improve our defence against the shared threats from Russian aggression and America First. The biggest economic opportunity we have is on our doorstep… Britain’s future lies with Europe — and one day back in the European Union.” Streeting confirmed he will stand in any Labour leadership contest if one is triggered.
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Reform Will Print Burnham’s “I Want to Rejoin” Words on Makerfield Leaflets
The Telegraph understands that Reform UK will make “Brexit betrayal” one of its key attack lines in the Makerfield by-election campaign, and intends to print Andy Burnham’s Labour conference 2025 words about wanting to rejoin the EU on its leaflets. Reform leader Nigel Farage told the Telegraph: “He would be a disaster for the economy and betray every Brexit voter in the constituency. ‘Open borders Burnham’ must be stopped.” Josh Simons, who is vacating the Makerfield seat to make way for Burnham, won it by a majority of just 5,399 over Reform UK at the 2024 general election — and Labour’s polling has weakened in the constituency since.
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Burnham to Channel 4: Reverse 40 Years of Thatcherism, Bring Utilities Back
Andy Burnham used an interview with Channel 4 News this weekend to call for the UK to go down a “completely” different path to the past 40 years, involving putting “more things back under stronger public control”. “Margaret Thatcher deregulated the whole country,” he told Channel 4. “The country gave away its control of the basic things that people depend upon every day. And that was a big mistake, in my view.” Josh Simons told the BBC on Sunday that public ownership of utilities — energy, water, social housing — could be “an important part of” the Burnham pitch to voters in Makerfield and beyond.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- Both leading Labour leadership contenders — Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting — have placed re-joining the European Union at the centre of their pitches. The Sunday Telegraph and Sunday Times lead on the story; the Sunday Mirror runs Burnham’s vision of mass nationalisation. Reform UK has signalled that “Brexit betrayal” will be its principal attack line in the Makerfield by-election campaign, which means the contest now turns on the EU question as much as on domestic policy.
- Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary, has become the first Cabinet minister to join Burnham on the Makerfield campaign trail in Winstanley, breaking ranks with the Prime Minister’s position. Dan Hodges reports in the Mail On Sunday that Sir Keir has told close friends he intends to stand down and set out a departure timetable, with a Cabinet minister quoted saying “he realises the current chaos is unsustainable”.
- The US and Israel are continuing intense preparations to renew the war against Iran as soon as next week, according to the New York Times report carried into Sunday by the Times of Israel. Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon continued through Saturday despite Friday’s 45-day ceasefire extension. Petrol and energy-related prices are likely to remain elevated; the Sunday Express reports that Iranian intelligence activity on UK soil is now the largest single category of hostile-state casework.
Iran War — Day 79. The war started 28 February 2026. The Times of Israel reports, citing the New York Times and Israel’s Channel 12, that US and Israeli forces are conducting their most intense preparations to renew the war as soon as next week, with options including the conquest of Kharg Island and the insertion of commandos to extract highly enriched uranium. Israeli strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon continued into Saturday despite Friday’s 45-day ceasefire extension, with Lebanese state media reporting fresh evacuations. The Institute for the Study of War assesses that the Russian General Staff has made a series of false battlefield claims about advances west of Kupyansk that have not occurred; Russia launched 294 drones at Ukraine overnight on 15-16 May, of which 269 were intercepted. Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi remains in Tehran on a mediation track, while Pakistan and Iran are repatriating crews from US-seized vessels.
GEO Geopolitical
US and Israel Prep to Renew Iran War “Next Week” — NYT
Two Middle Eastern officials told the New York Times that Israel and the United States are in their most intense preparations to date to renew the war against Iran, possibly as soon as next week, the Times of Israel reported. Options include conquering Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub and inserting commandos to extract highly enriched uranium buried since the June 2025 strikes. A senior Israeli official told Channel 12: “We’re preparing for days to weeks of fighting and waiting for Trump’s final decision. We’ll know more in 24 hours.”
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Israeli Strikes on South Lebanon Continue After Ceasefire Extension
Israel launched a wave of airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon on Saturday, the day after Friday’s 45-day ceasefire extension was announced in Washington, the Associated Press reported. The Lebanese national news agency reported strikes on at least five villages preceded by mass evacuations toward Sidon and Beirut; the Israel Defense Forces issued evacuation orders for nine villages and said it was responding to Hezbollah’s “violations of the ceasefire agreement”. Hezbollah launched at least one drone toward Israel; sirens triggered in the Meron area, no injuries reported.
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Hamas Military Chief Al-Haddad Killed in Gaza Strike, Confirmed
The Israel Defense Forces confirmed on Saturday that Friday’s airstrike in Gaza killed Izz al-Din al-Haddad, leader of Hamas’s military wing and described by Israel as “one of the last surviving architects” of the 7 October 2023 attacks, the Associated Press reported. Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem confirmed the killing. Al-Haddad had assumed command of the Hamas military council following the killing of his predecessor Mohammed Sinwar. The 7 October attacks killed around 1,200 people in southern Israel and saw more than 250 taken hostage.
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ISW: Gerasimov Making False Kupyansk Claims; 294 Drones at Ukraine Overnight
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov made a series of false claims to senior commanders on 16 May, asserting Russian forces are advancing west of Kupyansk toward Shevchenkove despite ISW evidence that Russian forces have only infiltrated about 14% of Kupyansk itself. ISW called the claims “highly inaccurate” for the fifth consecutive month, judging the Russian command may be “allowing its own falsehoods to influence Russian operational and strategic planning”. Russia launched 294 drones at Ukraine overnight; 269 were intercepted.
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Pakistan, Iran Repatriate Vessel Crews as Back-Channel Talks Continue
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said on Saturday that Islamabad is repatriating eleven Pakistani citizens and twenty Iranian nationals from vessels seized in the high seas by the United States, Reuters reported. The repatriation is being handled alongside ongoing Pakistani back-channel mediation with both Tehran and Washington. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi separately told reporters in New Delhi that Tehran has “no trust” in the US and will negotiate only if Washington “is serious”.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Sunday Papers: Burnham and Streeting Want to Rejoin the EU
Both Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting would seek a mandate to rejoin the European Union if elected Labour leader, the Sunday Telegraph reports on its front page; the Sunday Times leads with “Britain should rejoin EU, declares Streeting”. In a speech to the Progress conference on Saturday, Streeting called leaving the EU a “catastrophic mistake”, said Britain needs a new “special relationship” with the bloc, and concluded: “Britain’s future lies with Europe — and one day back in the European Union.” Reform UK will make “Brexit betrayal” a central by-election attack.
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Nandy Breaks Ranks: First Cabinet Minister to Join Burnham Campaign
Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary, became the first sitting Cabinet minister to join Andy Burnham on the Makerfield campaign trail in Winstanley, Greater Manchester, on Saturday, the Telegraph reported. The move is a substantive break from Number 10’s official position of fighting any Burnham challenge. The Mail On Sunday separately reports, via Dan Hodges, that Sir Keir Starmer has told close friends he intends to stand down and set out a departure timetable, with a Cabinet minister quoted saying “he realises the current chaos is unsustainable”.
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Burnham on Channel 4: “Completely Different Path”, Mass Nationalisation
Andy Burnham used a Saturday interview with Channel 4 News to call for the UK to go down a “completely” different path to the past 40 years, putting “more things back under stronger public control”. He told the Telegraph he favours nationalisation of energy, housing, water and transport; the Sunday Mirror exclusive details council-house building, electoral reform via proportional representation, and a programme of mass nationalisation. “Margaret Thatcher deregulated the whole country,” he said. “The country gave away its control of the basic things that people depend upon every day. And that was a big mistake.”
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Farage: “Open Borders Burnham”; Tory Chair Attacks “Re-litigate Brexit”
Nigel Farage told the Telegraph that Burnham “would be a disaster for the economy and betray every Brexit voter in the constituency. ‘Open borders Burnham’ must be stopped.” Conservative Party chairman Kevin Hollinrake said: “Whilst Labour re-litigate Brexit, Britain is not being governed.” Labour MP Dan Carden of the Blue Labour group warned his party against “whining about Brexit”: “It would be far better to focus government resources on making the most of our sovereign freedoms in trade and defence and foreign policy.”
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Mail On Sunday: Starmer Tells Allies He Intends to Stand Down
Dan Hodges writes in the Mail On Sunday, summarised by the BBC’s Sunday papers round-up, that Sir Keir Starmer has told close friends he intends to stand down and set out a timetable for his departure. A Cabinet minister is quoted saying “he realises the current chaos is unsustainable”, and that the Prime Minister will leave in a “manner of his own choosing”. The Times has separately reported the autumn defence-spending boost as part of the survival package; the Eurasia Group raised the probability of Starmer being ousted this year to 80% on Friday.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Israel launched its first wave of airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon since Friday’s 45-day ceasefire extension, issuing evacuation orders for nine villages and a Hezbollah drone toward Israel triggered sirens near Meron. The ceasefire is being implemented as a low-intensity, “porous” truce, not a halt in fighting; petrol forecourt prices and energy-related inflation are unlikely to ease before a parallel Iran-track breakthrough.
- The Times reports that the United States and Israel are conducting their most intense preparations to renew the air campaign against Iran “as soon as next week”, citing two Middle Eastern officials. Options under consideration include conquering Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub and putting commandos onto the mainland to extract enriched uranium — with the senior Israeli official telling Israeli television: “We’ll know more in 24 hours.”
- Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting confirmed at the Progress conference in London that he “will be standing” in any Labour leadership contest. With Burnham’s NEC-approved selection process closing on Monday and the Makerfield by-election expected on 18 June, the field is now formally a contest rather than a coronation — markets will price the rival policy programmes through next week’s Treasury yield curve.
Iran War — Day 78. The war started 28 February 2026. The Israel Defense Forces struck Hezbollah infrastructure in nine villages of southern Lebanon today, the first wave of strikes since Friday’s US-brokered 45-day ceasefire extension. In Gaza, the Israeli military announced the killing of Izz al-Din al-Haddad, the leader of Hamas’s military wing and one of the last surviving architects of the 7 October 2023 attacks; Hamas confirmed. Two Middle Eastern officials told the New York Times that US and Israeli forces are in their most intense preparations to renew the war against Iran as soon as next week, with options including the seizure of Kharg Island and a ground extraction of enriched uranium. The Institute for the Study of War assesses that the Iranian regime now treats “recognised control over the Strait of Hormuz” as the implicit precondition for negotiations.
GEO Geopolitical
IDF Strikes Hezbollah for First Time Since Ceasefire Extension
The Israel Defense Forces said on Saturday that it had launched a wave of airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon — the first since Friday’s 45-day ceasefire extension. The IDF issued evacuation warnings for nine villages including Qaaqaaiyet al-Snoubar, Kaouthariyet El Saiyad, Merouaniyeh, Ghassaniyeh, Tefahta, Irzay, Babliyeh, Insar and al-Baisariyah. “In light of the Hezbollah terror organization’s violations of the ceasefire agreement, the IDF is forced to act against it with force,” army spokesman Col. Avichay Adraee said. A Hezbollah drone fired at Israel triggered sirens near Meron; no injuries reported.
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US and Israel Prepping to Renew Iran War Next Week, NYT Reports
Two Middle Eastern officials told the New York Times that Israel and the United States are carrying out their most intense preparations yet to renew attacks on Iran, possibly as soon as next week, the Times of Israel reported. Options reportedly include a more intense bombing campaign, the seizure of Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub, and putting commandos onto the mainland to extract highly-enriched uranium buried under rubble. A senior Israeli official told Channel 12: “We’re preparing for days to weeks of fighting and waiting for Trump’s final decision. We’ll know more in 24 hours.”
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Hamas Military-Wing Leader Al-Haddad Killed in Gaza Strike
An Israeli airstrike in Gaza on Friday killed Izz al-Din al-Haddad, the leader of Hamas’s military wing and “one of the last surviving architects” of the 7 October 2023 attacks, the Israeli military said on Saturday; Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem confirmed the killing on social media, the Associated Press reported. Israel said al-Haddad had assumed command of the Hamas military council after the killing of his predecessor Mohammed Sinwar. The 7 October attacks killed around 1,200 people in southern Israel and saw more than 250 taken hostage.
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ISW: Iran Demands Guarantees Against Future Strikes; CENTCOM Redirects 75 Ships
The Institute for the Study of War’s Iran Update for 15 May assesses that senior Iranian officials “continue to demand guarantees against future US-Israeli attacks as a precondition for negotiations, and the Iranian regime likely views recognised control over the Strait of Hormuz as one such guarantee”. US Central Command announced that US forces have redirected 75 commercial vessels and disabled four since the blockade began on 13 April; Al Jazeera’s Saturday live coverage cited an updated CENTCOM figure of 78 ships redirected.
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Lebanon Civilian Toll Rises to 2,969 Killed, 9,112 Wounded Since March
Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health updated the cumulative casualty toll on Saturday to 2,969 killed and 9,112 wounded since 2 March, when Hezbollah’s missile fire at Israel three days into the US-Israeli war on Iran triggered the renewed conflict, Al Jazeera’s live coverage reported. The Friday strike on a civil-defence centre in Harouf, which killed six people including three paramedics, was the proximate trigger for the updated count and was reported in detail by Reuters and the BBC overnight.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Streeting: “I Will Be Standing” in Any Labour Leadership Contest
Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting confirmed on Saturday that he will challenge Sir Keir Starmer in any Labour leadership contest, Reuters reported. “We need a proper contest with the best candidates on the field, and I will be standing,” Streeting told the Progress group’s annual conference in London. The declaration ends a week of speculation about whether the parliamentary right would back Andy Burnham unopposed. Streeting resigned from the Cabinet on Thursday and publicly backed Burnham’s Makerfield by-election bid on Friday.
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Sunday Times: Business Fears “Raynernomics” Under Burnham
Business and the markets are “adopting the brace position” in case Angela Rayner’s economic programme — redistributionist, with higher taxes on the better-off and on businesses — becomes a reality under a Labour leader of the soft left, the Sunday Times reports. Economics Editor David Smith argues that, “in the absence of any detail from Andy Burnham, who, should he win the Makerfield by-election, will be a leadership candidate, possibly the favourite, it is reasonable to assume that his economics would be similar to Rayner’s”.
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Guardian Analysis: Starmer Now Looks Like an “Interim Leader”
Steve Reed, the housing secretary and one of the Prime Minister’s closest cabinet allies, told the BBC: “There is no contest. ‘Moves’ mean nothing. People need 81 nominations to stand against the prime minister.” The Guardian’s weekend analysis argues that, although technically correct, the past week has shed so much of Starmer’s authority that many MPs “view him as, in effect, an interim leader, still in office only until the necessary arrangements can be made for a replacement”. A loyalist Labour official is quoted: “At several points this week I’ve felt like I was going mad. Why are we even doing this?”
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CNBC/Eurasia: 80% Probability Starmer Ousted This Year
Eurasia Group analysts have raised the probability of Sir Keir Starmer being ousted this year to 80%, up from 65% previously, with a 35% probability that MPs force a leadership election by September, a 25% probability of an orderly transition and a 20% probability of an immediate election, CNBC reported. Jordan Rochester, head of EMEA fixed-income strategy at Mizuho, told CNBC: “For many, the writing is on the wall at this stage, it’s just a matter of how quickly the exit happens.”
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Reuters in Makerfield: Voters Split Between Burnham and Reform
Reuters dispatched a correspondent to Ashton-in-Makerfield where voters are split between Andy Burnham and Reform UK. Former miner Anthony McCormack told Reuters he would back Burnham because he is “the right man for the job” and would “100%” make a better prime minister than Sir Keir Starmer, describing the current Prime Minister as “not a politician, he’s middle management”. Aesthetics nurse Rachael Hulse told Reuters her family had always voted Labour but “now, that’s completely changed”, and that she hoped Reform UK would win the seat.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- The fragile Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was extended by 45 days at the conclusion of two days of US-mediated talks in Washington, with new political and security tracks scheduled for early June and 29 May. Petrol forecourt prices are unlikely to ease meaningfully until the Iran track produces a parallel breakthrough; oil rose roughly 2% to around $108 a barrel on Friday.
- UK borrowing costs closed Friday at levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis: ten-year gilts at 5.18%, thirty-year at 5.85% (the highest this century); sterling fell to a five-week low of $1.33, its biggest weekly drop against the dollar since November 2024. Mortgage and fixed-rate household borrowing costs are likely to follow if the political risk premium proves persistent.
- Andy Burnham’s pathway to challenging the Prime Minister cleared its first hurdle when Labour’s National Executive Committee approved his entry into the Makerfield selection process; the by-election is expected on 18 June. A Survation poll modelled by The Guardian puts Burnham on 45% to Reform’s 43% in Makerfield, against 27% for any other Labour candidate.
Iran War — Day 78. The war started 28 February 2026. The most material overnight development is the United States’ announcement that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 45-day extension of the ceasefire that was due to expire on Sunday, with a political track convened by the State Department on 2-3 June and a security track at the Pentagon on 29 May. The announcement was overshadowed by an Israeli strike on a civil defence centre in Harouf, southern Lebanon, that the Lebanese state news agency reported killed six people, including three paramedics, and wounded 22 others. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters in New Delhi that “a lack of trust” remains the biggest obstacle in talks to end the wider war with Washington.
GEO Geopolitical
Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Extended 45 Days at Washington Talks
Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 45-day extension of the ceasefire that was due to expire on Sunday, the US State Department announced on Friday at the conclusion of two days of talks in Washington. State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott said: “The April 16 cessation of hostilities will be extended by 45 days to enable further progress.” A new security track will be launched at the Pentagon on 29 May; the political track reconvenes at the State Department on 2-3 June.
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Six Killed, Three Paramedics, in Israeli Strike on Harouf
At least six people were killed and 22 wounded in an Israeli strike on a civil defence centre in the town of Harouf in southern Lebanon late on Friday, the Lebanese state news agency reported early on Saturday. The dead included three paramedics, with a fourth sustaining critical injuries, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. Separately, Lebanon’s health ministry said Israeli strikes on the Tyre district wounded at least 37 people, including six hospital personnel, nine women and four children. The BBC has contacted the Israeli military for comment.
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Araghchi: “Lack of Trust” Biggest Obstacle; Trump Weighs Chinese Refinery Sanctions
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters in New Delhi that “a lack of trust” remains the biggest obstacle in negotiations to end the war with the United States, the Associated Press reported. President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he was considering whether to lift U.S. sanctions on Chinese refineries buying Iranian oil, telling reporters: “We talked about that and I’m going to make a decision over the next few days.” China is the biggest buyer of Iranian crude; the decision would materially change the economics of the wartime blockade.
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ISW: Putin Spinning Strained Economic Data as Strikes on Ukraine Continue
The Institute for the Study of War’s Friday assessment opens with the judgment that “Russian President Vladimir Putin is positively portraying data about Russia’s economic performance that actually shows a strained economy.” The assessment follows two days during which Russian forces launched more than 1,600 long-range drones and missiles, collapsing a nine-storey residential block in Kyiv and killing at least twelve. Russian milblogger reporting and Ukrainian Air Force figures show President Volodymyr Zelensky’s 94% drone-intercept rate held under the saturation effort.
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China’s Iran Statement: “Should Never Have Happened, Has No Reason To Continue”
China’s foreign ministry issued an unusually direct statement of frustration with the Iran war at the close of President Xi Jinping’s summit with President Trump in Beijing: “This conflict, which should never have happened, has no reason to continue.” The ministry stopped short of indicating that Beijing would use its commercial leverage with Tehran to push for a settlement. Xi separately pledged not to send Iran military equipment, a low-cost concession Trump described on Fox News as “a big statement”.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
NEC Approves Burnham for Makerfield Selection; Endorsement 21 May
Labour’s National Executive Committee on Friday approved Andy Burnham’s entry into the candidate selection process for the Makerfield by-election. NEC officers agreed by email to grant a waiver and did not wait for Burnham’s formal application. The selection window opened immediately and closes at noon on Monday; longlisting and due diligence conclude on Monday, shortlisting interviews and hustings on Tuesday, with NEC endorsement marked for 21 May.
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Gilts Highest This Century; Sterling at 5-Week Low Against Dollar
UK ten-year gilt yields rose 18 basis points to 5.18% on Friday, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, and thirty-year yields rose 19 basis points to 5.85%, the highest this century, according to The Times. Sterling fell another 0.6% to $1.33, a five-week low, and is down almost 2% on the week against the dollar — its biggest weekly drop since November 2024. The FTSE 100 shed 1.7% and the FTSE 250 fell 1%.
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Burnham Team Targets PM by Autumn Conference; Survation Poll Favours Him
Andy Burnham’s supporters say he will push to become Prime Minister in time to address Labour’s autumn conference in Liverpool, The Guardian reported. Analysis by Survation shared with the newspaper suggests that with Burnham as the candidate Labour would narrowly beat Reform UK by 45% to 43% in Makerfield, compared with a non-Burnham Labour candidate attracting 27% versus 53% for Reform. Burnham is expected to set out his “Manchesterism” vision next week.
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Streeting Backs Burnham: “Best Players on the Pitch”
Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting publicly backed Andy Burnham’s by-election bid on Friday, telling reporters that Labour needs “our best players on the pitch. There is no doubt that Andy Burnham is one of them.” The endorsement is the most consequential intra-party signal of the week because Streeting, on the parliamentary right of Labour, had himself been seen as a potential challenger to Sir Keir Starmer from a more market-friendly position. The endorsement materially simplifies the candidate field if a full leadership contest opens.
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Starmer Expected to Approve £18bn Defence Boost Next Week
The Prime Minister is expected to approve an £18 billion increase in defence spending as early as next week, according to The Times reporting cited by The Guardian. The move is described as part of Sir Keir Starmer’s political-survival strategy as Andy Burnham’s pathway to a leadership challenge crystallises. Burnham has previously argued that defence spending should be excluded from the fiscal rules — a position that bond markets have read as adding to fiscal-loosening risk.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- UK borrowing costs and sterling reset on the Burnham leadership signal: the ten-year gilt yield closed near 5.14% (highest since 2008), the thirty-year near 5.82% (highest since 1998) and the pound at $1.3325 against the dollar, a five-week low against the dollar. Mortgage and overdraft costs are likely to follow if the political risk premium proves persistent.
- President Trump warned from Air Force One that his patience with Iran is “running out” and is weighing whether to lift U.S. sanctions on Chinese refineries buying Iranian crude. Oil prices rose roughly 2% to around $108 a barrel; petrol forecourt prices will track the move with a one-to-two-week lag.
- The Lebanon ceasefire formally expires on Sunday. The third round of US-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks continues today in Washington; the United States described Thursday’s session as “productive and positive”. If no extension is announced before Sunday, Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon become procedurally easier and regional escalation risk rises.
Iran War — Day 77. The war started 28 February 2026. The most material development on the war today was President Trump’s “not going to be much more patient” warning to Tehran from Air Force One on the flight back from Beijing, alongside news that he is weighing whether to lift U.S. sanctions on Chinese oil refineries buying Iranian crude. China’s foreign ministry said the conflict “should never have happened, has no reason to continue”, but gave no indication Beijing would actively pressure Tehran. The United Arab Emirates moved to fast-track the West-East pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz by 2027 after the IRGC redefined the strait as a 300-mile “vast operational area”. The first non-Iranian very large crude carriers since the war began are reaching destinations: Idemitsu Maru, carrying Saudi crude, docks at Nagoya on 25 May.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump: “Not Going To Be Much More Patient” With Iran; Oil to $108
President Trump warned from Air Force One on the flight back from Beijing that his patience with Iran is running out and that Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed Tehran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said he was considering whether to lift U.S. sanctions on Chinese oil refineries buying Iranian oil, telling reporters “I’m going to make a decision over the next few days”. Oil prices rose around 2% to around $108 a barrel on the lack of progress; U.S. Treasury yields hit their highest in around a year.
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UAE Fast-Tracks Pipeline to Double Hormuz-Bypass Export Capacity
Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed directed the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company to fast-track the West-East Pipeline to the Gulf of Oman port of Fujairah, the government’s Abu Dhabi Media Office said on Friday. The pipeline will double UAE export capacity that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and is expected to start operating next year. The acceleration follows the IRGC’s 12 May announcement redefining the strait as a 300-mile “vast operational area” encompassing much of the UAE’s Gulf of Oman coastline.
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Israeli Soldier Killed in Lebanon; IDF Strikes 65 Hezbollah Sites
Staff Sergeant Negev Dagan, 20, of the Golani Brigade’s 12th Battalion, was killed by Hezbollah mortar fire in southern Lebanon late on Thursday, the IDF announced on Friday morning. He is the nineteenth Israeli soldier killed since 2 March and the sixth since the 16 April truce. The IDF said it struck 65 Hezbollah infrastructure sites and killed more than 20 Hezbollah operatives in the past 24 hours, and issued an “urgent” evacuation warning for villages near Tyre ahead of further strikes.
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Russia Launches 1,600+ Drones, Missiles at Ukraine Over Two Days
Russian forces launched more than 1,600 long-range drones and missiles against Ukraine over the 48 hours to Wednesday evening, the Institute for the Study of War reported. Strikes heavily targeted Kyiv City; a ballistic missile collapsed a nine-storey residential block in the capital, killing at least twelve including a twelve-year-old child and injuring fifty-seven. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian forces had downed about 94% of the drones and 73% of the missiles despite the saturation effort.
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First Major Non-Iranian Tankers Begin Reaching Destinations
The Japanese-managed Eneos Endeavor, carrying 1.2 million barrels of Kuwait crude and 700,000 barrels of Emirati Das Blend, exited the Strait of Hormuz on 14 May and is due to arrive in Japan on 3 June, according to LSEG and Kpler data. The Idemitsu Maru, the first very large crude carrier to exit since the war began, will arrive at Nagoya on 25 May with 2 million barrels of Saudi crude. The Chinese-flagged Yuan Hua Hu, with 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude, is expected at Zhoushan on 1 June.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Burnham Confirms Makerfield By-Election Bid; NEC to Decide
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham confirmed on Friday that he will seek the Labour nomination in Makerfield after sitting MP Josh Simons announced he would stand down. Burnham said he would ask Labour’s National Executive Committee to allow him to stand, and the Prime Minister has indicated Number 10 will not block him this time, unlike at the Gorton and Denton by-election in February. The earliest the by-election could be held is Thursday 18 June — the same week as the G7 summit in France.
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Gilts Hit 1998 High; Sterling at $1.33 as Burnham Bid Drives Risk
The ten-year UK gilt yield reached 5.14% on Friday morning — the highest since 2008 — and the thirty-year yield was back at 5.82%, last seen in 1998, after Burnham’s leadership move clarified, according to Morningstar. Sterling weakened to $1.3325 against the dollar, a five-week low, after starting the week at $1.36. Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at Ebury, told Morningstar: “GBP and gilts are unlikely to react favourably given Burnham’s recent remarks that the government should not be beholden to the bond market.”
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YouGov: Burnham Only Senior Politician With Positive Favourability
Andy Burnham is the only senior politician without a negative net favourability score in YouGov’s May tracker, with a net rating of +4 across the British public, according to fieldwork conducted on 12-13 May. Among 2024 Labour voters, Burnham’s net favourability is +41, far ahead of Angela Rayner (+13), Yvette Cooper (+12) and Ed Miliband (+7). Sir Keir Starmer’s net favourability remains at -46, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves on -51, the lowest of any frontbench figure polled.
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Greens to Contest Makerfield, Complicating Burnham’s Path
The Green Party announced on Friday it has begun selecting a candidate for the Makerfield by-election, ending speculation it would stand aside to avoid splitting the anti-Reform vote. Former Green leader Caroline Lucas publicly dissented on X: “There are times when it’s more important to put country before party. This is one of them.” Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice told the BBC the party would “make Burnham history” and was “throwing everything possible” at the contest, which sits 29th on Reform’s target list.
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Labour Mechanics: 81-MP Threshold; Streeting Backs Burnham
Under Labour’s rules, a leadership challenger needs the formal support of 81 MPs — one fifth of the parliamentary Labour Party — to trigger a contest, the Associated Press reported. Around 80 Labour MPs have publicly demanded the Prime Minister’s departure but the signatures have not been submitted in coordinated form. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who resigned on Thursday, publicly backed Burnham, saying Labour needs “our best players on the pitch”. Outgoing Makerfield MP Josh Simons told BBC Radio Manchester the party had been “imploding”.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- The Trump-Xi summit closed in Beijing this morning. The two leaders agreed on a “constructive China-U.S. relationship of strategic stability” framework; President Xi pledged not to send military equipment to Iran and agreed the Strait of Hormuz should reopen “as soon as possible”. China was reported to have agreed to buy US oil, although Beijing stopped short of confirming the energy purchase. Substantive bilateral deals on Taiwan, tariffs and rare earths remain unannounced.
- Sir Keir Starmer’s overnight reshuffle named James Murray, the former Chief Secretary to the Treasury, as the new Health Secretary in place of Wes Streeting; Lucy Rigby takes Murray’s Treasury post. The 81-MP threshold needed to trigger a formal Labour leadership contest remains unmet, and no consensus on a single challenger has emerged among the parliamentary right.
- Iran allowed more than thirty commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz overnight — the first material easing of the wartime blockade. Vice-President JD Vance said the “fundamental question is, do we make enough progress that we satisfy the president’s red line?” President Trump warned Tehran from Beijing: “I’m not going to be much more patient.” Petrol forecourt prices may begin to ease over the next ten days if the shipping signal holds.
Iran War — Day 77. The war started 28 February 2026. The most material overnight development is the closing day of the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, at which the two leaders agreed Tehran cannot have a nuclear weapon, China pledged no military equipment for Iran and Beijing called for shipping lanes to reopen “as soon as possible”. Iran allowed more than thirty commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz overnight. Vice-President JD Vance told reporters that “progress is being made” in negotiations. The BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting in New Delhi has so far failed to produce a joint statement after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused the UAE of being “directly involved in the aggression” against Iran.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump-Xi Summit Closes: Strategic-Stability Framework, Iran Alignment
The two-day Trump-Xi summit closed in Beijing this morning at a tea session and working lunch in the Chinese leadership’s private compound. The two leaders agreed to develop what Beijing is calling a “constructive China-U.S. relationship of strategic stability”, framed as the guiding principle for the next three years. On Iran the leaders agreed Tehran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and Beijing called for a “comprehensive and lasting ceasefire” with the Strait of Hormuz reopened. Substantive deals on Taiwan, tariffs and rare earths remain unannounced.
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Xi Pledges No Military Equipment to Iran; China Will Help Open Hormuz
President Xi Jinping pledged during the summit that China will not send military equipment to Iran and offered Chinese assistance in opening the Strait of Hormuz. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had separately told his Iranian counterpart that the strait should be opened “as soon as possible”. The commitments are the most explicit Chinese material distancing from Tehran since the war began. China is the top importer of Iranian crude and the only major power whose pressure on Tehran would meaningfully change the calculus.
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Iran Allows 30+ Ships Through Hormuz Overnight; Vance: “Progress Made”
Iran allowed more than thirty commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz overnight — the first material easing of the wartime blockade since the conflict began on 28 February. Vice-President JD Vance told reporters at the White House that the “fundamental question is, do we make enough progress that we satisfy the president’s red line?” President Trump warned from Beijing that Tehran “should make a deal”, adding: “Any sane person would make a deal.”
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BRICS Struggles for Joint Statement; Araghchi Accuses UAE
The BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting in New Delhi appears unlikely to produce a joint statement after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused the United Arab Emirates of being “directly involved in the aggression against my country”. Araghchi called Iran a “victim of illegal expansionism and warmongering” and urged BRICS to “explicitly condemn violations of international law by the United States and Israel”. India’s External Affairs Ministry separately condemned the attack on an Indian-flagged vessel off Oman as “unacceptable”.
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Israel-Lebanon: 2,896 Killed Since March; Washington Talks Continue
Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health says at least 2,896 people have been killed in Israeli attacks since the conflict resumed in early March. Israeli warplanes struck a residential project in Srifa, southern Lebanon, on Thursday, killing two. Four Israeli civilians were wounded, one critically, in a Hezbollah drone attack on the Rosh Hanikra area. The third round of US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon, opened in Washington Thursday, continues today; the ceasefire formally expires on Sunday.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Murray Appointed Health Secretary; Rigby Moves to Treasury
Sir Keir Starmer named James Murray, the former Chief Secretary to the Treasury, as the new Health Secretary late on Thursday night following Wes Streeting’s resignation. Lucy Rigby has taken Murray’s Treasury post, becoming the second-most senior figure in Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s ministry. The overnight reshuffle is the minimum-disruption response Number 10 had signalled it would pursue; no further Cabinet-rank vacancies have been announced.
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81-MP Threshold Still Unmet; No Single Challenger Has Emerged
More than 80 Labour MPs publicly demanded Sir Keir Starmer’s departure during the week, but the 81 signatures required to formally trigger a leadership contest under Labour rules have not been submitted to the General Secretary in coordinated form. Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham remain the three named potential challengers; no consensus among the parliamentary right has emerged on which of them to back. Burnham still lacks a parliamentary seat.
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NIESR: Reeves’s £22 Billion Headroom “Tiny”; Debt-to-GDP Heading to 100%
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research’s latest UK Economic Outlook framed Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s £22 billion fiscal headroom against her stability rule as structurally inadequate, with the Institute for Fiscal Studies similarly noting that Reeves had “chosen to operate her fiscal rules with such teeny tiny headroom”. NIESR projects UK GDP growth of 1.4% in 2026 and warns the debt-to-GDP ratio is approaching 100% by decade-end, limiting future scope for discretionary support.
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Markets: Gilts Pared Slide on Thursday; Sterling Below $1.30
UK gilts pared back earlier-week losses through Thursday: the ten-year yield closed near 5.03% and the thirty-year near 5.70% in midday London trading, per CNBC. The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed about 0.7% higher. Sterling held below $1.30 against the dollar. The Bank of England’s pension-fund stress facility, dormant since the November 2022 LDI crisis, remained in its pre-activation contingency status; the Financial Policy Committee’s March 2023 minimum-resilience framework continues to govern LDI desks.
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Reform UK and Greens Capitalise; Local-Election Aftermath Continues
Reform UK and the Greens are continuing to capitalise on the local-election cycle that triggered the Labour leadership crisis. Labour lost more than 1,400 council seats in last week’s English local elections, with Reform UK gaining 1,454 seats and taking control of multiple county councils. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is reportedly preparing to test whether parts of the centre-right vote can be reconsolidated; the Tories’ own electoral performance was historically weak.
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Evening Briefing
What It Means For You
- Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned from the Cabinet this afternoon, telling Sir Keir Starmer in his letter, “It is now clear that you will not lead the Labour Party into the next general election.” He is the first Cabinet-rank minister to resign. He did NOT formally declare a leadership challenge and did not confirm whether he has secured the 81 MPs required to trigger a contest under Labour rules. Number 10 said the Prime Minister “is purely focused on governing”.
- The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing produced an explicit White House agreement that Iran “can never have a nuclear weapon” and that the Strait of Hormuz must be fully opened. President Xi offered to mediate the US-Iran conflict (“If I can be of any help at all, I would like to be of help”), but US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said publicly, “We are not asking for China’s help. We don’t need their help.”
- UK gilts rallied through the session despite Streeting’s departure: the ten-year yield fell about four basis points to 5.028% and the thirty-year fell about six basis points to 5.695%, per CNBC. The FTSE 100 opened around 0.3% higher. Sterling traded under pressure on continued political uncertainty. Mortgage holders on long-fix products do not yet see relief, but the immediate fiscal-credibility shock that prevailed earlier this week has eased.
Iran War — Day 75. The war started 28 February 2026. The most material development of the day is the Beijing communiqué from the Trump-Xi summit: a White House statement confirmed that the two leaders agreed Iran “can never have a nuclear weapon” and that the Strait of Hormuz should be fully opened. President Xi offered to mediate; Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly declined the offer. In New Delhi, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi addressed the BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting and called on the bloc to condemn US and Israeli “unlawful aggression”; India’s Subrahmanyam Jaishankar called for “safe, unimpeded maritime flows”. No fresh public statements from Tehran on the summit outcome had been issued at the time of going to press.
UK UK Domestic Politics
Streeting Resigns; Tells Starmer He Cannot Lead Labour Into Next Election
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned from the Cabinet this afternoon, posting on X that he no longer had “confidence” in Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership. In his resignation letter, Streeting told the Prime Minister, “It is now clear that you will not lead the Labour Party into the next general election.” He is the first Cabinet-rank minister to resign in the current crisis. Four junior ministers had already resigned earlier in the week.
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Streeting Did Not Formally Trigger Contest; 81-MP Threshold Still Outstanding
Streeting’s resignation did not formally declare a leadership challenge under Labour rules. A contest requires the public support of one fifth of Labour MPs — currently 81 lawmakers — and Streeting did not confirm in his letter that he had secured that count. More than 80 MPs have publicly called on Starmer to quit or set a departure timetable, but those statements have been delivered as letters and individual declarations rather than as a single formal submission to the General Secretary.
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Starmer: “Purely Focused on Governing”; Reeves Warns on Economic Risk
Number 10 said in response to Streeting’s resignation that the Prime Minister “is purely focused on governing” and is “getting on with the job”. Chancellor Rachel Reeves urged Labour colleagues not to risk the economy through a leadership contest. The Government had no immediate replacement to announce; departmental responsibilities at the Department of Health will be handled at junior-ministerial level pending a wider reshuffle.
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Gilts Rally Despite Resignation: 10Y to 5.028%, 30Y to 5.695%
UK gilts rallied through the morning session despite the Streeting resignation. The ten-year yield fell about four basis points to 5.028% and the thirty-year fell about six basis points to 5.695%, per CNBC data as of midday London time. The FTSE 100 was seen opening 0.3% higher. Sterling remained under pressure as analysts foresaw “risks skewed towards higher gilt yields and a weaker GBP” on continued political uncertainty. Specific FTSE close levels were not yet confirmed in approved-source articles at the time of going to press.
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Four Junior Resignations Earlier This Week Set the Sequence
Four junior ministers had resigned earlier in the week, ahead of Streeting’s Cabinet-rank departure: Miatta Fahnbulleh (Devolution, Faith and Communities), Jess Phillips (Safeguarding), Alex Davies-Jones (Victims and Violence Against Women) and Zubir Ahmed (Health). The clustered junior departures set the political weather that allowed today’s Cabinet resignation to land without an immediate stabilising counter-move by Number 10.
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GEO Geopolitical
Trump-Xi Summit: Iran Must Not Have Nuclear Weapon; Hormuz Must Be Opened
The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing produced an explicit White House statement that the two leaders agreed that Iran “can never have a nuclear weapon” and that the Strait of Hormuz must be fully opened to support the free flow of energy. The agreement is the most explicit US-China alignment on the Iran war so far. The summit is the first US presidential visit to Beijing in nearly a decade and is set to continue with a second day of talks on Friday.
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Xi Offers Iran Mediation; Rubio: “We Don’t Need Their Help”
President Trump told reporters that Chinese President Xi Jinping offered to help resolve the US-Iran conflict at their summit, saying “If I can be of any help at all, I would like to be of help”. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said publicly that Trump raised Iran with Xi but “he didn’t ask them for anything”, adding, “We are not asking for China’s help. We don’t need their help.” The split signal — Trump accepting the offer, Rubio rejecting it — is the diagnostic feature of the day.
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Xi Warns Trump on Taiwan: “Great Jeopardy”
President Xi Jinping told President Trump that mishandling Taiwan would put the US-China relationship in “great jeopardy”. The framing was the most explicit Chinese public warning on Taiwan delivered to a US president since the 2022 Pelosi visit. At the state banquet following the formal talks, Trump referred to Xi as a “friend” and Xi described the US-China relationship as “partners, not rivals”. The Taiwan question is widely expected to dominate the second day of summit talks tomorrow.
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BRICS in New Delhi: Araghchi Calls for Condemnation; UAE Tensions Aired
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi addressed the BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting in New Delhi, calling on the bloc to condemn US and Israeli “unlawful aggression” against Iran. India’s Subrahmanyam Jaishankar called for “safe, unimpeded maritime flows”. India is attempting to bridge an open Iran-UAE rift inside BRICS; the Emirati delegation’s role at the meeting remained unclear. Bloc unanimity on a strong Iran-supporting communiqué is unlikely; observers expect a general sovereignty-condemnation framing instead.
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Iran-Lebanon Talks Open in Washington; Hormuz Remains Blockaded
The third round of US-mediated Israel-Lebanon talks opened in Washington today at ambassador level, with sessions scheduled across 14 and 15 May. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has refused to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly until a security agreement is reached and Israeli strikes inside Lebanon cease. Separately, the Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded; the chokepoint carries about a fifth of global oil and gas, and the Trump-Xi communiqué calling for it to be opened is the most material indirect catalyst for the next phase of the diplomatic track.
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Morning Briefing
What It Means For You
- President Trump has arrived in Beijing for a two-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping — the first US presidential trip to Beijing in nearly a decade. Xi told the welcoming ceremony that the two countries’ shared interests “outweigh” their differences and called for a “diplomatic reset”; Trump praised Xi as a “great leader”. The summit agenda includes Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, Taiwan, AI and trade. Analysts expect China to demand Taiwan concessions in return for any meaningful pressure on Tehran.
- Health Secretary Wes Streeting is expected to resign today and launch a formal leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer. The Times reported on Wednesday evening that an ally said, “He is going for it. He’s going tomorrow.” More than 80 Labour MPs have publicly demanded the Prime Minister’s departure. A new Labour leadership contest would mean a fluid policy environment until it concludes.
- The BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting opens in New Delhi today with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi sitting at the same table as the Saudi and Egyptian top diplomats. China’s Wang Yi is in Beijing with Trump; Beijing is represented at BRICS by its Ambassador to India, Xu Feihong. The US-mediated third round of Israel-Lebanon talks also opens in Washington today at ambassador level.
Iran War — Day 75. The war started 28 February 2026. The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing is the single most consequential diplomatic event of the war so far: China is the top importer of Iranian oil and the only major power whose pressure on Tehran would meaningfully change the calculus. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly urged China to “join us in supporting this international operation” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In parallel, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi opens the BRICS meeting in New Delhi this morning, calling on the bloc to condemn US and Israeli “unlawful aggression”. Brent crude settled $105.63 a barrel on Wednesday, down about 2% as markets priced in the China summit; WTI settled near $101.
GEO Geopolitical
Trump Arrives in Beijing for Two-Day Summit with Xi
President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing this morning for a two-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the first US presidential trip to Beijing in nearly a decade. Xi told the welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People that the two countries’ shared interests “outweigh” their differences and called for a “diplomatic reset”. Trump praised Xi as a “great leader”. The summit agenda includes Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, Taiwan, AI and trade. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged Beijing to “join us in supporting this international operation” to reopen the Strait.
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BRICS Foreign Ministers Open in Delhi as Iran War Dominates Agenda
The BRICS foreign ministers’ two-day meeting opens in New Delhi this morning, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi sitting at the same table as the Saudi and Egyptian foreign ministers. Russia is represented by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, South Africa by Ronald Lamola, Brazil by Mauro Vieira, Indonesia by Sugiono and India by Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. China is represented by its Ambassador to India, Xu Feihong, with Wang Yi in Beijing for the Trump summit.
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Iran’s Araghchi Calls on BRICS to Condemn US-Israel “Unlawful Aggression”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi opened his BRICS contributions this morning by calling on fellow member states to condemn the United States and Israel for what he characterised as “unlawful aggression” against Iran. The framing is the strongest public language Tehran has used at a multilateral forum since the war began on 28 February. India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar separately called for “safe, unimpeded maritime flows through international waters”, an oblique reference to the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil and gas passes.
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Brent Settled $105.63 on Wednesday Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit
International benchmark Brent crude futures settled $105.63 a barrel on Wednesday, down about 2% on the session, as markets priced in the prospective Trump-Xi summit and the corresponding outside chance of progress on the Strait of Hormuz blockade. US West Texas Intermediate settled near $101. Both benchmarks remain materially above pre-war levels. No fresh statements on Iran have been issued by President Trump overnight; the Monday “garbage” framing remains the public US position pending the summit outcomes.
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US-Mediated Israel-Lebanon Talks Open in Washington Today
The third round of US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon opens in Washington today at ambassador level, with sessions scheduled across 14 and 15 May. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has refused to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly until a security agreement is reached and Israeli strikes inside Lebanon cease. Aoun has said “we must first reach a security agreement and stop the Israeli attacks on us before we raise the issue of a meeting”. Delegation-level negotiations are scheduled to begin on 17 May.
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UK UK Domestic Politics
Streeting Expected to Resign and Launch Leadership Bid Today
Health Secretary Wes Streeting is expected to resign from the Cabinet today and launch a formal leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer, according to The Times. An ally told the paper on Wednesday evening, “He is going for it. He’s going tomorrow.” Streeting met Starmer for less than twenty minutes at Downing Street on Wednesday morning ahead of the State Opening and left without responding to journalists. More than 80 Labour MPs — nearly a quarter of the 403-strong parliamentary party — have publicly demanded the Prime Minister’s departure.
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King’s Speech Yesterday: 35+ Bills, Security-Heavy, Limited Defence Industry
King Charles III delivered the King’s Speech from the House of Lords on Wednesday morning wearing the Imperial State Crown and a crimson robe, setting out more than 35 bills for the new parliamentary session. The headline ministerial commitment was that “my ministers will take decisions that protect the energy, defence and economic security” of the United Kingdom. The agenda focused on the Ukraine and Iran conflicts but contained only limited defence-industry provisions despite reported pressure from President Trump.
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Starmer: “Pivotal Moment”; Warns Against “Chaos and Instability”
In his formal response to the King’s Speech in the Commons on Wednesday afternoon, Sir Keir Starmer told MPs that “Britain stands at a pivotal moment: to press ahead with a plan to build a stronger, fairer country, or turn back to the chaos and instability of the past”. The framing is the second time in three days Starmer has explicitly invoked the “chaos” of constantly changing leadership as the alternative to his premiership. The framing is calibrated to constrain any challenger’s opening statement; a Streeting resignation today will have to be delivered against that public record.
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Junior Ministerial Resignations: Four Since Monday
Four junior ministers have resigned since Monday in protest at Sir Keir Starmer’s continued leadership: Miatta Fahnbulleh (Devolution, Faith and Communities), who said “the public does not believe that you can lead this change”; Jess Phillips (Safeguarding), who cited “opportunities for progress stalled and delayed”; Alex Davies-Jones (Victims and Violence Against Women), who described the local-election results as “catastrophic”; and Zubir Ahmed (Health). No Cabinet-rank resignation has yet been formally registered, though Streeting is expected to move today.
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Markets: Gilts Pared Tuesday’s Slide on Wednesday; Sterling Below $1.30
UK gilts pared back Tuesday’s sharp slide through Wednesday afternoon after Sir Keir Starmer defied calls to quit; the pan-European Stoxx 600 closed about 0.7% higher on the session. Sterling held below $1.30 against the dollar. The 30-year gilt yield closed Tuesday at its highest level since 1998. The Debt Management Office’s scheduled 30-year auction took place on Wednesday morning; specific cover-ratio and tail figures had not been confirmed in approved-source articles available at the time of going to press.